Posted on 11/03/2012 5:07:11 PM PDT by Steelfish
NOVEMBER 3 Parsing the Polls If Gallup is right, Tuesday will be a long night for the Democratic party. By Michael G. Franc
Last week, the Gallup Organization provided more fodder for the debate over whether this years polls are skewed due to a systematic over-representation of Democrats in the samples. If Gallup has it right, Governor Romneys lead may be several percentage points greater than the most recent round of polls suggests.
Gallup reviewed all of its interviews with likely voters conducted since October 1. Its conclusion: The composition of the electorate for the 2012 presidential election is looking quite similar to what it was in 2008 as well as 2004. Indeed, whether the sample is broken out on the basis of race, gender, level of education, or geographic location, the percentage of likely voters in each subset is no different than it was four years earlier.
But Gallup uncovered one very significant shift in this years voting electorate. There has been a remarkable movement toward the Republican party. As Gallup reports:
The largest changes in the composition of the electorate compared with the last presidential election concern the partisan affiliation of voters. Currently, 46% of likely voters identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, compared with 54% in 2008. But in 2008, Democrats enjoyed a wide 12-point advantage in party affiliation among national adults, the largest Gallup had seen in at least two decades. More recently, Americans have been about as likely to identify as or lean Republican as to identify as or lean Democratic. Consequently, the electorate has also become less Democratic and more Republican in its political orientation than in 2008. In fact, the party composition of the electorate this year looks more similar to the electorate in 2004 than 2008.
If anything, Gallup understates the case......
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
The pollsters may be working for Democrats when they are not working on election polling. They are afraid they will not be hired in the future, if they report a Romney landslide coming now.
***If these sorts of predictions are true, what will happen to Chris Mathews on election night?***
He will no doubt have a warm, wet feeling down his leg.
***If these sorts of predictions are true, what will happen to Chris Mathews on election night?***
He will no doubt have a warm, wet feeling down his leg.
look up PEW and 91%. look up GALLUP and sexual preference.
The so-called 'turnout models' are just short of being prognostications, and are certainly not polls ~ why anyone would pay attention to them as if they can predict is a very good question. With a 9% response rate, and no filter on the input of data from special interest groups, these things have little value.
I'd rather count pigeon droppings on a tiled courtyard.
Would u wait 4 hrs in line to vote if your candidate was losing.
Good point.
Most of the “polls” I’ve seen lately are weighted towards “registered voters” v “likely voters”. All part of the special sauce.
Bronco Bama habituates the Bath Houses?
Your special interest folks know what to say.
You obviously know way more about this than me. I just know that today I saw two polls where more than half the respondents were registered v likely, and I’ve read a couple of articles talking about how pollsters are doing an incredibly poor job of screening.
Could be poor screening, and it could be they're now sampling anyone that will finally answer the phone. Muawiyah's earlier point about Caller-ID is valid. If ours indicates "Blocked" or shows "Unknown Caller" from a number we've never called we don't answer.
Bump!
It just seems like these “pollsters” are doing everything they can to keep Obama competitive. Over estimating Democrat turn out. Including high numbers of registered voters in their polls. Relaxing screening to include registered voters as likely voters.
Speaking of bets, is Vegas taking bets on the elections?
I'll have the DVR recording all activity on MSNBC as well as Current TV (Al Gore's nutty outfit). Should provide countless hours of entertainment.
Personally, I’m looking for Chrissie to first feel a tingle up his leg, then a tremor, and then have a full-fledged stroke on camera. The way to tell, is he will become more intelligible AFTER the stroke. . . .(evil grin)
He will likley go berserk castigating Harry Reid who just said he wants Romney to fail.
I think they have a list of those who answered and keep calling them again. Esp. when you know what they said the first time.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.