New Florida Poll: Mitt Romney maintains lead over Obama, 51-45

Miami Herald ^ | 11-2

[Arthurio]

BY MARC CAPUTO MCAPUTO@MIAMIHERALD.COM

Mitt Romney has maintained a solid lead over President Barack Obama in the latest Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll of likely voters who favor the Republican by six percentage points.

Romney’s strengths: independent voters and more crossover support from Democrats relative to the Republicans who back Obama, according to the survey conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.

Romney’s crossover appeal is fueled by strong support in rural North Florida, a conservative bastion where a relatively high percentage of Democrats often vote Republican in presidential election years.

“I’m pretty convinced Romney’s going to win Florida,” said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker, who conducted the 800-likely voter survey from Tuesday through Thursday.

“Will it be fivepoints? Maybe. Will it be three points? Possibly,” Coker said, of what he expects Romney’s margin will be. “I don’t think it’s going to be a recount … I don’t think we’re going to have a recount-race here.”

Romney is winning handily among men, marginally losing with women voters and has outsized support among non-Hispanic whites. He’s essentially winning on the issues as well: the economy, Medicare, foreign policy and looking out for the middle-class.

Coker noted the poll results are essentially unchanged from last month, when Romney led by a point more after he crushed Obama in their first debate.

The October poll and this one, which have error margins of 3.5 percent, were conducted for The Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald as well as the Tampa Bay Times, Bay News 9 and Central Florida News 13.

Although the latest survey shows Romney comfortably ahead 51-45 percent in Florida, the Republican can’t rest easy. Other polls show a tighter race, although they use a different method of polling than that of Mason-Dixon, a Florida-based firm.

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/02/3080246/poll-mitt-romney-maintains-lead.html#storylink=cpy

[ConservativeMan55]

Here’s the other thing. Yesterday Romney announced he’d be campaigning in PA on Sunday. Now we know these campaigns shell out millions of dollars for the best pollsters.

When that was announced I thought... they know something we don’t. Then today THIS news about PA comes out. I think Romney may have a real shot there...

[snarkytart]

What’s Rasmussen’s record with state polling? We know he’s pretty accurate with the general election but state polling is a different monster.

[snarkytart]

Oh and if Romney was really 6 pts or more behind in PA I don’t think he’d be wasting one minute there this last week.

[wolfman23601]

Not sure, but other than PA, his results are among the more favorable.

[wolfman23601]

Obviously he thinks it is in play. Obama and his pollsters dont seem to think it is play. Someone is right and someone isnt. PA would be huge. Get that and VA and the election is over regardless of OH, WI, IA, or NH. Would be a huge steal. I also wonder if NJ may be winnable if half the state is still out of power and the NY media turning on the government.

[Jet Jaguar]

Poll ping.

[untwist]

The final tally in Florida will be a blowout. I early voted yesterday and the lines of people are very long, very pro-Romney. Lots of Benghazi related signs, heavy presence of Jewish Republicans demonstrating on Obama’s treatment of Israel.

Expect Romney to take 53% of the FL vote at least. I hope it’s enough for some coattails. We need enough to pull Connie Mack over the finish line and knock out the Obama rubber stamp astronut, Bill Nelson. Locally we need Adam Hasner to win Allen West’s previous seat here in my district, and West to take the next seat north of us. He is in a bloody battle with a GOP convert to the donkeys. West is blasting with both barrels and should win.

All in all, FL will be very Red next week!

[snarkytart]

I don’t think R is gonna win PA with tbh. I do think he’s probably only down about 3 or 4 points. Enough to make him go for it.

[BerryDingle]

I think this is gonna be a Romney landslide, although I’m still a Sarah fan.

[BerryDingle]

[JustaCowgirl]

No fear about NC - blowout by 300 thousand votes. My wife ran across a minor irregularity and R/R attorney was at our door within the hour. He says they have had relatively little trouble in NC, and have had enough monitors to handle them.

Wow, that makes me breathe a little easier. Thanks for that piece of news.

[snarkytart]

Mason Dixon has a track record better than Marist and not only that other polling firm left FL, NC, and VA a couple of weeks ago because Romney had a solid lead and it wasn't fluctuating at ALL.

CNN/MARIST is full of crap. Fortunately for them hardly anybody remembers the state polls after an election to hold them responsible for agenda driven polls.

[nfldgirl]

What a good laugh this early morn!

[agere_contra]

Self immolation, FRiend.

Technically, everybody self-emulates.

[Labyrinthos]

Lee Miringoff, who runs the Marist Poll, is a leftie. According to Open Secrets, his wife, who is a sociology professor at uber liberal Vassar College, is also a leftie and a big Obama supporter.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Earlier:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/264521-poll-romney-up-with-fla-voters-in-crucial-i-4-corridor-

“Poll: Romney up in key I-4 corridor in Florida”

“A new poll [Oct. 29, 2012] shows Mitt Romney holding the edge among voters in a key region of central Florida, which could help swing the critical battleground state.

A Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9 survey released Sunday shows Romney winning 51 percent support to Obama’s 45 among registered voters along Florida’s I-4 corridor. .......”

[FR_addict]

The voting machines used in Durham don’t allow you to see how it registers your vote. You use a pencil to fill in the space and as you leave, it is put through the same machine everyone else uses in the polling location.

So who knows how it is calibrated.

[trackman]

Rasmussen is one of the best for national but not too good for state polls. His polling sample sizes are fairly small which leaves too much margin of error. However his state polling doesn’t lean one way or the other. In other words although not too occur accurate it is not biased. The Susq. poll is known to be quite accurate though.

[Ghost of Philip Marlowe]

I’ll tell you what, this liberal woman vote is really starting to tick me off.

They scream about being strong, independent, self-reliant women who don’t need men.

But when it’s time to vote, what do they do?

They go running for the protection of their sugar daddy. But what they don’t realize is that their sugar daddy is really a clever pimp who keeps them enslaved just as they keep minorities enslaved through socialist economics.

Disgusting.

[Perdogg]

Write up

O+0.05% - Current RCP Average
O+0.76% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+2.02% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.26% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.30% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.04% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

Yesterday we had a 1.2% drop in Rasmussen that lead to a collective freak out by all the nervous poll junkies, because it was reported as a tie. Later in the day, ABC/WaPo posted a gain for Romney. The most important part of the ABC/WaPo poll was Independent preference moving back to +8 and half of the 2% undecideds making up their mind and committing to Romney.

The "second look at Obama" is now over, and we won't seeing any more movement toward him in the polls. There are four reasons for this:

The bump he was getting from Sandy is now over, and it is becoming a liability as he must campaign while everyone is seeing people homeless and in gas lines. A lot of people are now asking why FEMA can't get gasoline into New Jersey and shelters into Staten Island. The excuse that it isn't FEMA's job isn't going to work after Obama's bold statements during his photo ops. Bloomberg did Obama no favors with the NYC Marathon stupidity.

Benghazi is now back into the news as the CIA releases timelines that raise more questions than they answer. Additionally, having two GOP Senators succeed in getting access to the prime suspect in 2 days, while the Government couldn't for 7 weeks makes Obama look ineffectual. Minds have now been made up. The final weekend is about turning out your base and organization. There are no opportunities left to change voter minds.

The difference in energy levels and enthusiasm between the two campaigns is palpable. Obama was barely able to draw 2,800 in Ohio in one of his strongholds yesterday. Romney drew 40,000 outdoors in the cold in Ohio. On Saturday, Ryan will be in Minnesota. On Sunday Romney will have a huge crowd in Bucks County, PA. The visual contrast between the campaigns is impossible to ignore.

In my opinion, there are three possible election scenarios that could play out on Tuesday. In only one of them does Obama have a chance of winning.

D+3: The least likely scenario is that Democrats turnout at 3% higher than Republicans. This is the "split the difference" scenario that pundits have been using all year. Take the Obama enthusiasm from 2008 and the GOP enthusiasm from 2010 and assume a turnout between them. This is now very unlikely to occur. We have specific evidence that the GOP 2010 enthusiasm is at or above 2010 levels. Obama's early voting numbers are crashing and he can't fill a venue, signs that Democrat enthusiasm isn't there. Finally Independents are supporting Romney by the same rate they supported the GOP in 2010. However, even with this scenario, Romney leads by 2 points and would get a 50-48 win. The only way that Obama could win is through massive voter fraud. This would require the production of 2,600,000 fraudulent votes and would very likely be detected. We would have a constitutional crisis. In this model, Romney wins close races in Ohio, Colorado, and Florida, winning 275 electoral votes.

Even: I view this turnout model to be the most likely. Obama has a small lead in early voting that is overwhelmed by GOP turnout on Tuesday. Obama is still able to get his core supporters to the polls, but it isn't enough to compensate for a very fired up GOP base and the Independents. One thing to keep in mind is that the Rasmussen and Gallup party preference polls are real. They really do show, at this point in time, that the Republicans hold a 1 to 3 point advantage in party identification. In this model, both parties get their bases to the polls, and the GOP misses just slightly their high water mark. In this scenario, Romney leads by over 4 points, and would win 51-47. He takes OH, CO, FL, IA, NH, WI, and PA, winning 315 electoral votes.

R+3: After watching the Romney rally in Ohio, I am seeing this result as much more possible. If Romney's energy continues to build, and Obama continues to make gaffes like "revenge voting", then we see massive turnout on Tuesday. The GOP gets all of the self identified Republicans, and the reports that Obama has been cannibalizing his election day voters turns out to be true. In this scenario, Romney wins by over 6, with a 52-46 final tally or better. This would be a similar result to the 1988 election. Romney would win OH, CO, FL, IA, NH, WI, PA, NV, OR, and ME-2 for 329 electoral votes. He would also have a good shot at winning MN and MI.