This was somewhat expected. The race had tightened to 2 points in the post Sandy days. This sample is fully post Sandy
PLEASE READ: IMPORTANT NOTE: Do keep in mind that some of this is just statistical noise. NHWinGut will publish the actual numbers today, but it still effectively a 1 point race, but rounding up and down makes the difference
Here are the actual numbers after leaners are added:
Gov Romney:
CERTAIN TO VOTE: 46 LIKELY TO VOTE: 2 LEANERS: 1
That adds up to 49 but is rounded DOWN to 48. It is claimed on various online channels that the actual number was 48.4
President Obama:
CERTAIN TO VOTE: 44 LIKELY TO VOTE: 2 LEANERS: 1
That adds up to 47 but is rounded UP to 48, It is claimed on various online channels that the actual number was 47.6
Also, the Rally Around the Flag effect, has been in place. People feel more charitable towards the President in a moment of crisis
As mentioned above, in today's poll the Governor actually leads the raw data by 1 but when rounding is done, he gets into a tie.
This shows that Sandy is changing the minds (maybe) of the few last stragglers
Some positive news for conservatives:
1. The President still did not go above 47 in his raw data and 48 with leaners thrown in
2. Presidential approval is stalled at 50
3. Republican enthusiasm remains high
Internal Data (NOT found in link above)
Gov leads with Indies by 3
Gov is behind with women by 7
Right Track/Wrong Track: 39/55
Right Track/Wrong Track (Hispanics/Asians): 47/44
Obama gains two points since Crispy Creme Christie’s disgraceful hyper-praise of the Great Pretender - after which FEMA didn’t hit the ground for FOUR DAYS. The damage is done. Christie is a disgrace.
As a Platinum Member I can tell You Rasmussen is about to issue a new Ohio Poll:
Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 49%
It’s Romney 49 and Obama 48 as initial preference.
It becomes 49 Tie where leaners are included.
Sample:
Rep 35
Dem 35
Other 29
The strange thing is that according to this new poll Obama would be 50-41 among indipendents in Ohio, unlike what seemed to be pretty much the trend up to today.
When Scott switched his model a couple of weeks ago, he built in the potential for slack in momentum and sure enough, it has dosed his numbers.
We did not 'back up' to 4% Undecided. Scott knows this too.
What we're left with, ironically, is his model. If it's D+4, Bobo wins; if it's D+2, Romney wins. If it's D+3, hellzapoppin.
No way is it D+4, so what we're left with is the trailing margin - how close do we get to D+2 and thus the 50% that puts Bobo away. I put absolute faith in the Incumbent Rule, borne out by the subtexts of even the ridiculous D+9 faux polls -- motivation, who better on economy, early voting.
No one but Nancy Bogusi is talking that ridiculous sh!t.