I looked at the elections for the past 60 years that were essentially a two-party race. I came up with this graph, which shows how the democrat candidate's popular vote translated to electoral votes:
This was somewhat expected. The race had tightened to 2 points in the post Sandy days. This sample is fully post Sandy
PLEASE READ: IMPORTANT NOTE: Do keep in mind that some of this is just statistical noise. NHWinGut will publish the actual numbers today, but it still effectively a 1 point race, but rounding up and down makes the difference
Here are the actual numbers after leaners are added:
Gov Romney:
CERTAIN TO VOTE: 46 LIKELY TO VOTE: 2 LEANERS: 1
That adds up to 49 but is rounded DOWN to 48. It is claimed on various online channels that the actual number was 48.4
President Obama:
CERTAIN TO VOTE: 44 LIKELY TO VOTE: 2 LEANERS: 1
That adds up to 47 but is rounded UP to 48, It is claimed on various online channels that the actual number was 47.6
Also, the Rally Around the Flag effect, has been in place. People feel more charitable towards the President in a moment of crisis
As mentioned above, in today's poll the Governor actually leads the raw data by 1 but when rounding is done, he gets into a tie.
This shows that Sandy is changing the minds (maybe) of the few last stragglers
Some positive news for conservatives:
1. The President still did not go above 47 in his raw data and 48 with leaners thrown in
2. Presidential approval is stalled at 50
3. Republican enthusiasm remains high
Internal Data (NOT found in link above)
Gov leads with Indies by 3
Gov is behind with women by 7
Right Track/Wrong Track: 39/55
Right Track/Wrong Track (Hispanics/Asians): 47/44
Commentary by Scott:
Romney has three days left to make Benghazi an issue.
Polls aside, it is just unbelievable that a now four-year proven corrupt, lying, incompetent, failure can be attracting nearly one half of the nation’s voters. The nation is possibly beyond the point of repair and the cause may be given another four years.
I’ll be glad when this is over. Seems like the country has been on hold for four years.
This late trend is NOT our friend! :(
So a storm comes to punish these decadent libtards and what do we get? 4 more years of godless marxism!
Kuhner says there is a massive effort to offset the Romney vote in suburban/rural areas by racking up fraudulent votes for Obama in the major cities.
Don't know what to make of this but you would think that somebody would be able to document this if it was happening.
Yikes.
Well I for one cannot wait to vote on Tuesday! Then to cheer our new president on Wednesday. Is it racist to say that BO is toast?
Does anyone know the the Rasmussen what swing state poll is?
Obama might have "looked" presidential the first couple of days, but now we can expect to see cold, starving New Yorkers begging news crews for help -- which the Obama administration can not possibly deliver. New York City looks like it's been suddenly changed into a third world banana republic -- with snow. I would be shocked if Obama wins the popular vote. Dunno about the electoral vote. I'm keeping my fingers crossed about Ohio. And Pennsylvania.
These are fun-tainment polls. Candidates aren’t using them, so please stop reacting like they are more than just conversation pieces.
Some of you need a new interest. Politics don’t go with weak stomachs.
Just think if we lose this and plunge America into the abyss, we will have Chris Christie to thank and he achieved nothing for NJ and that is reality.
I am putting my faith in the internals, and the Republican wave that must be building.
All nonsense.
What is happening now, as in all past elections, is that the pollsters are covering their bets so as to maintain credibility no matter what the outcome.
They are looking out for their business for the next elections.
Does anyone really think that in the last few days 6 million plus people are changing their minds every day? Impossible.
Now, no matter which way the elections go, these pollsters like Rasmussen, Gallup, etc., can say “well, we were within the margin of error”.
No matter who wins, the results of this election will not be close. It will be more like a 51-48% split with a 291- 247 electoral college split.
Ping me on Wednesday about my brillian prophecy.
These numbers can also be accounted for by Rasmussen now polling in the last week 1000 per day instead of 500 per day. A smaller MOE means that the result is much more likely to be right on the money. Assuming a 1% MOE with 3000 total respondents (I didn’t check), 48.4 ranges from 49.4 to 47.4 and 47.6 ranges from 48.6 to 46.6.
In that entire range from 49.4 down to 46.6, Romney is the clear winner in 40% of his range whereas Obama is a clear loser in 55% of his range, and there is no place in his range that Obama is a clear winner and no place when Romney is not a clear winner that he couldn’t also be tied with Obama, given that Obama is under 50%.
Look at the crowd size everyone. Someone just posted only 2500 came out to see Obama speak in Columbus, OH
depressing article.
Un- believable how happy the dems are with such economic catastrophe.
Obama’s continued support is concrete proof that dems are lazy and don’t want to ever work.
If Obama wins , the US is done , forever beyond repair.
I looked at the elections for the past 60 years that were essentially a two-party race. I came up with this graph, which shows how the democrat candidate's popular vote translated to electoral votes:
And it all boils down to turnout.
If the Romney supporters turn out like crazy on Tuesday, they win.
If the hussein supporters turn out and commit enough fraud, they win.
Given that it is so close, I think turnout favors the challenger. However, it’s gonna be close.
My prediction: Romney wins the entire south plus NH, and this ends up being decided in the midwest. And the electoral map looks remarkably like that of the U.S./C.S.A. in 1862.