When Scott switched his model a couple of weeks ago, he built in the potential for slack in momentum and sure enough, it has dosed his numbers.
We did not 'back up' to 4% Undecided. Scott knows this too.
What we're left with, ironically, is his model. If it's D+4, Bobo wins; if it's D+2, Romney wins. If it's D+3, hellzapoppin.
No way is it D+4, so what we're left with is the trailing margin - how close do we get to D+2 and thus the 50% that puts Bobo away. I put absolute faith in the Incumbent Rule, borne out by the subtexts of even the ridiculous D+9 faux polls -- motivation, who better on economy, early voting.
In the past Obama has always out polled his results “ the Bradley effect” if that is good for 2 points this race is over.