Posted on 10/31/2012 1:09:16 PM PDT by PatrickHaggerty
Overall, the survey found Obama leading Romney among likely voters by 50 percent to 45 percent, after the two tied at 47 percent each in a late-September Congressional Connection Poll. Conversely, the poll recorded a slight shift toward the GOP in House races. Now, 47 percent of likely voters say they would prefer that Republicans maintain their House majority, while 44 percent want Democrats to take over; Democrats held a 45 percent to 43 percent advantage in late September. Voters, by a solid 50 percent to 40 percent margin, now say they would prefer a Democratic Senate; that’s up from a 47 percent to 42 percent advantage for Democrats in September.
so he was being himself.
Neil is always pessimistic. What’s new?
Welcome to FR. D+8 is garbage.
I misread paragraph second from bottom.
One thing I’ve noticed on RCP is all the national polls with the smallest sample sizes have Obama up...
I’m a troll for posting a poll?
I just joined this forum because I’ve enjoyed reading it about the past week or so and wanted to post.
Pretty outrageous to be called a troll because I joined two days ago and posted a poll.
fantastic poll. really great research and professionally done.
The more I see these crazy polls today, the more I feel confident in a Romney victory. This is the kind of garbage that comes out in crunch time that the losing party concocts to try and rile up enthusiasm.
Fun stuff. NJ even plays down their own poll in their last few sentences. Sigh.
N00bs get their chops busted no matter what. Put some ice on that; you’ll be fine.
Run the 2010 model on it and see what they get.
I believe it is going to be much closer to that model...and the results of the 2010 model result in a far, far different outcome.
STAND OBAMA DOWN!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UIWiBXpR0mc
Has any pollster or poll analyst/commentator clearly explained why virtually every polling firm uses such a high D+ sample? Even the pollster Fox News uses does this. Heck, even Ras appears to use a D+3 (some say D+6).
What is the reason for this exactly? Are pollsters consistently just finding far more Democrats when they make their calls? Something must be driving this and I have no seen anyone really explain it.
Great find!
Just too laughable.
A droll troll.
I don’t know, but if it is true that the response rate is somewher between 10 and 20% then that alone is a BIG problem for the pollsters. Then judging from the comments on this board, quite a few conservatives refuse to answer the polls. Is it the same with liberals......??
In its likely-voter model, the Congressional Connection Poll projected that the 2012 electorate will be virtually unchanged from 2008, with Democrats holding an 8 percentage-point advantage among voters (compared with 7 points last time) and whites representing 73 percent of voters (compared to 74 percent last time).
Noticed this too. While getting a larger sample is important, it is not going to bias a poll one way or another on average...it just gets you a smaller margin of error...but the tricky thing about polls and why they tell different stories outside of their margin of error (like this one compared to Gallup) as often as they do...is that they have to choose among several imperfect ways to attempt to get a random sample of the population of people actually going to vote with an unbiased chance of each real voter being represented in that sample. This is a very difficult problem...and the only real way to check the success of this selection is to do sanity checking of your results...such as comparing the break down of the party id to larger to voter registration patterns and such. This poll is dubious to me not because of the small sample...but because, like I said, it has lots of big talk about conclusions but does not seem to provide me with any internal data which I could use to check its veracity.
I saw that and it is absurd in my opinion. In what universe is the electorate as friendly to Obama now as it was in 2008 (even more friendly by 1 point actually).
Yet poll after poll after poll is using these really high D+ models and I am unclear what their explanation is. Even the poll Fox News uses does this very same thing.
Too far out to be reliable.
(Just kidding... I think.)
That you, Barry?
Princeton Survey Research, the poll takers
here’s the head: http://www.psrai.com/Witt.shtml
here’s their client list: http://www.psrai.com/ourclients.shtml
nuff said
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