Posted on 10/30/2012 5:40:40 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Im now beginning to think that the Boston Globe poll released on Monday was probably an outlier:
A new poll released today shows Elizabeth Warren leading Senator Scott Brown by 7 percentage points, one of the Democratic challengers largest leads in any poll taken in recent months.
The poll, by Suffolk University/News 7, was released a day after a Boston Globe poll showed a much tighter race, with Brown leading by 2 percentage points. The Globe poll showed an exact tie when including responses from voters who did not express an initial preference but said they were leaning in one direction.
The Suffolk poll showed Warren leading with 53 percent of the vote compared with 46 percent for Brown. The poll of 600 likely voters, interviewed by phone, was taken Oct. 25 through Oct. 28 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.
Elizabeth Warren is riding a final wave of momentum to the US Senate, said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston, in a news release.
Alas, it only gets worse:
The Washington Post, Rasmussen Reports and the Rothenberg Political Report all consider the race to be leaning in Warren's favor. As of Monday afternoon, The New York Times' FiveThirtyEight blog called the seat "safe Democratic" and gave Warren a 95.2 percent chance of winning, with 52.1 percent of the vote to 46.6 percent for Brown.
FiveThirtyEight's election forecasting model uses polling data, demographics and historical analysis to predict election results. The website was started by statistician Nate Silver in 2008 and purchased by The New York Times in 2010.
As I wrote yesterday, Senator Brown pulled out of Tuesdays fourth and final debate out of respect for the victims of Massachusetts and their families affected by Hurricane Sandy, thus impelling Elizabeth Warren to quickly followed suit. But will the head-to-head matchup be rescheduled? Possibly:
The debate sponsors, a consortium of news outlets, said they were working with the campaigns to try to reschedule the debate, though with the election one week away, time was short. Ms. Warren issued a statement Tuesday afternoon saying she believed a debate should occur and that she would be available Thursday night, putting the ball in Mr. Browns court.
I suspect Republicans in Massachusetts are hoping that the debate will be rescheduled sometime in the next few days. Why? One reason is because it was around this time two years ago -- about a week before the special election in January 2010 -- that Scott Brown muttered his now-famous peoples seat rejoinder during a debate against Democratic Senate candidate Martha Coakley. This impromptu remark in some ways tilted the race in Scott Browns favor by giving his campaign some unexpected momentum precisely when he needed it.
Two years later, however, at a time when many pollsters are now openly asserting that Scott Brown will lose his bid for re-election, what could be more beneficial than chalking up a solid -- and perhaps even game-changing -- debate performance a few days before the election? Nothing. This is why one hopes -- if the weather permits -- the two candidates will have an opportunity to take the stage one final time before the vast majority of Massachusetts voters head to the polls.
A poll where 3 people can make a 7% difference really isn't all that tight is it.
It’s so sad that liberals just don’t expect even the slightest shred of integrity in their public officials.
When I studied poli sci, when dinosaurs walked the earth, poll companies would pursue their quarry almost to the ends of the earth in order to keep the result scientific. Now it’s who answers the phone?
She is a perfect liar for the DNC. But it’s not much of a loss to conservatives if Brown takes a hike.
Oh! Stop your nonsense! Union workers are being threatened with their jobs and are fined $150 per if they refuse. The only people voting for Fauxchahontas are from Beacon Hill, Cambridge and the Pioneer valley which happens to be the Lesbian Capitol of the Universe. (western MA) where the the first pink Governor has his vacay manse... you know , he too, wants to be with his peeps.
Scott is very popular her despite all of the out of state money (33M) in one month from out of state for Granny Warren.
He has to be polite because she is female but,’ take my word’ for it as Liz would say..she is a blinking, blinded, bumbilicious boob.
We do not like her.
Word.
Internals please ? It’s a wave year, even in Mass. Brown is important.
It's great stuff ~ much better than the old personal interview stuff ~ but the problem is there's been a disaster. They call it CALLER ID and when you see who is calling you decide whether or not you want to answer.
As a consequence actual responses as a percentage of attempts have fallen in the toilet.
This is the reason the polling companies and universities haven't been all that excited about explaining or changing or even dealing with the questions folks raise about what they call 'overpolling' ~ like when you are up to your neck in alligators who cares whether it's puppies or chickens being tossed in to feed the critters.
BTW, several months back I realized that I'd been contacted by 5 separate polling companies ~ as shown on my caller ID list ~ and I didn't call a single one of them back.
So, how random a system is the random dialer process? Might have something to do with my having a name that's something like the 58,000 or so most common name in America ~ they want to get diversity so they always select for us ~ and not MR JONES
True conservatism has, already, lost, both, the ‘12 Massachusetts U.S. Senate race and the race for ‘12 POTUS! Also, the next Congress will have way too many leftists in it, from both major political parties, no matter what the official results are after next Tuesday. How is the U.S. not headed, even more, into third world socialism, no matter what happens next Tuesday?
sad news for ya.. Scottie was never a tea Partier. BUT you must remember that the reason we all voted for him was to kill Obama care.
Scott would have voted to kill it if the Senate had not pulled a fast one and allowed Dead Ted’s usurper/suckup...appointed Senator Paul Kirk... Kennedy bootlicker to that seat! The State Legislature had to twist itself into freaking pretzels to make that happen prior to the LEGALLY scheduled election between Marsha Coakley and Scott Brown.
So if you are gonna be pissed off, be pissed off at the Senate of the US. Harry Reid purposely steered this Obamacare vote so that Scott did not get to vote on it!
It’s all about the machinations!
He never claimed to be a tea partier, he has always been a wussified RINO>
Better than Dead Ted any day!
Who is this clown at town hall peddling polls from
All far left wing front groups like the globe which blew the last Brown senate race poll by 15 pts and old Daily Koz fraud Nate Silver l
It is a pathetic hit piece !
“God help us if the whole country goes the way of Massachusetts.”
Not gonna happen. More than half the country is lining up behind Texas and the resurgent patriot south.
Massachusetts is an outlier state that will be kicked out of the union.
That’s not true - even scumbag Nate Silver at the NY Times was predicting a GOP takeover of the senate up until September. Many Republicans have been predicting a takeover. Looks bad now though.
This is a Massachusetts seat, and it just was not a likely win in a presidential year.
Disappointed, but would not surprise me if we lose it.
Brown will win. MA is still highly patriarchal, more than it’s liberal cover would let on.
It is sad that Massachusetts may send Warren to the US Senate, despite her open faced lies about being a minority to gain preference in hiring and her practicing law without a license. Warren may take over Obama’s old position as the most liberal member of the US Senate. Al Franken already has the distinction of being the Senate’s village idiot.
A fake Indian commie is their ideal candidate.
Yes, Scott was behind and not expected to win in his last election. To h*ll with Fauxcahontas!
She is more nutz than Pelosi... this is outlandish to think people in MASS believe in such garbage.....
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