Posted on 10/30/2012 5:40:40 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
I’m now beginning to think that the Boston Globe poll released on Monday was probably an outlier:
A new poll released today shows Elizabeth Warren leading Senator Scott Brown by 7 percentage points, one of the Democratic challenger’s largest leads in any poll taken in recent months.
The poll, by Suffolk University/News 7, was released a day after a Boston Globe poll showed a much tighter race, with Brown leading by 2 percentage points. The Globe poll showed an exact tie when including responses from voters who did not express an initial preference but said they were leaning in one direction.
The Suffolk poll showed Warren leading with 53 percent of the vote compared with 46 percent for Brown. The poll of 600 likely voters, interviewed by phone, was taken Oct. 25 through Oct. 28 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.
“Elizabeth Warren is riding a final wave of momentum to the US Senate,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston, in a news release.
Alas, it only gets worse:
The Washington Post, Rasmussen Reports and the Rothenberg Political Report all consider the race to be leaning in Warren's favor. As of Monday afternoon, The New York Times' FiveThirtyEight blog called the seat "safe Democratic" and gave Warren a 95.2 percent chance of winning, with 52.1 percent of the vote to 46.6 percent for Brown.
FiveThirtyEight's election forecasting model uses polling data, demographics and historical analysis to predict election results. The website was started by statistician Nate Silver in 2008 and purchased by The New York Times in 2010.
As I wrote yesterday, Senator Brown pulled out of Tuesday’s fourth and final debate out of respect for the victims of Massachusetts and their families affected by Hurricane Sandy, thus impelling Elizabeth Warren to quickly followed suit. But will the head-to-head matchup be rescheduled? Possibly:
The debate sponsors, a consortium of news outlets, said they were working with the campaigns to try to reschedule the debate, though with the election one week away, time was short. Ms. Warren issued a statement Tuesday afternoon saying she believed a debate “should occur” and that she would be available Thursday night, putting the ball in Mr. Brown’s court.
I suspect Republicans in Massachusetts are hoping that the debate will be rescheduled sometime in the next few days. Why? One reason is because it was around this time two years ago -- about a week before the special election in January 2010 -- that Scott Brown muttered his now-famous “people’s seat” rejoinder during a debate against Democratic Senate candidate Martha Coakley. This impromptu remark in some ways tilted the race in Scott Brown’s favor by giving his campaign some unexpected momentum precisely when he needed it.
Two years later, however, at a time when many pollsters are now openly asserting that Scott Brown will lose his bid for re-election, what could be more beneficial than chalking up a solid -- and perhaps even game-changing -- debate performance a few days before the election? Nothing. This is why one hopes -- if the weather permits -- the two candidates will have an opportunity to take the stage one final time before the vast majority of Massachusetts voters head to the polls.
Paleologos was just on BOR and stands by the poll results, stating the independent women and unionists are moving towards Fauxcahontas. No big surprise in the People’s Republic of MA.
With Massachusetts bent on going mad, what is a mother to do.
Starting to get legitimately worried about the senate now. Mourdock is is in trouble and now the commiehawk is going to beat Brown?
Akin’s stunning turn-around might have all been for nothing is these guys don’t get their asses in gear. We cannot allow dingy Reid to retain majority rule.
Scott was well behind last time...he could still pull this out....hope and prayers....
A small group of dedicated fanatics can subvert that polling situation simply by ALWAYS answering the phone.
Gallup has been asking a question about sexual preference for the last year. They now say that about 3.5% of their respondents are homosexuals ~ or claim to be.
Guarantee one of their first adjustments to their data to improve it is to simply exclude any answers from homosexuals.
Not that the gay guys answer every phone call, or make the callbacks indicated by almost every poll these days, but they do ~ as long as they know Gallup is going to ask them that question.
Professionals in the abortion business also do this, as do the feminazis.
That right there can explain any lead Warren might have in MA ~ the polls are simply wrong!
Looks good on Brown. i get all the Boston channels and Brown’s campaign is pushing an ad bragging about his support for homosexual “marriage”, abortion and Obama’s female judicial appointments. A Democrat win in MA will just replace one Dem with another. Brown wiped his feet on the Tea Party as soon as they helped get him elected.
Mourdock will win.
“I suspect Republicans in Massachusetts are hoping that the debate will be rescheduled sometime in the next few days.”
Brown has just announced he will not be debating the Fake Indian Granny again.
God help us if the whole country goes the way of Massachusetts.
My theory is that there;s been too much lead consumptions what with all the older homes in MA.
You don’t turn down a debate if you think it will give a chance to win.
I thought Warren wants a debate...hmmmm
Very funny, except the nominal party breakdown in the Senate *will* matter. Who gets control of committees or whatnot.
That is true, I remember that, and I contacted his election campaign and relayed to them how upset I and many others were, and that they wouldn't get another penny from me and many others. Guess his double-cross came back to bite him.
Brown was swept in in a wave and it would be amazing if he wonin a Presidential year. He just can’t get far enoughto the left to outmarx Pocohantas better known Lying To Your Face and Libs Love It.
Hmmm. If the campaigns’ internal polling was as most of the public polls have indicated, with Warren solidly ahead, you would expect the opposite.
From the LI article (money shot)
Warren’s campaign has been extremely cautious to date, so you would expect it to sit on the lead. Why risk a game changer at another debate? Conversely, if Brown’s internal polling told him he needed a Hail Mary pass, he should be demanding the final debate be rescheduled.
Warren is acting as if she needs the Hail Mary pass, while Brown is in a prevent defense.
Maybe the candidates are acting irrationally, or maybe they know something we don’t.
I hope it happens...
if you got any money to spare, send some into your favorite candidate....
we need to push these guys over the finish line....
If someone wheedled me into answering a political poll, I would hang up on them if they asked me what my sexual preference was, maybe after yelling why they cared whether I scrod my cat or dog.
Getting Harry Reid to go away would be such a joy.
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