Nate Silver: 'Romney, clearly, could still win'

Politico ^

[Arthurio]

By DYLAN BYERS |

10/29/12 3:27 PM EDT

Nate Silver could be a one-term celebrity.

The New York Times' resident political predictor says President Barack Obama currently has a 74.6% chance of winning re-election. It's a prediction that liberals, whose heart rates continue to fluctuate with the release of every new poll, want to take solace in, but somehow can't. Sure, this is the guy who correctly predicted the outcome of the 2008 election in 49 of 50 states, but this year's polls suggest a nail-biter.

"Romney, clearly, could still win," Silver told POLITICO today.

[madison10]

“Could still win?” How ‘bout will win, but 0 may still win if he cheats enough?

[Shadow44]

understatement of the election!

[plangent]

Dear Nate; Here's a thought.

Hope you enjoy

[Reddy]

LOL I’ve seen libs posting Silver’s predictions of zero’s impending win all week on FB.

I won’t gloat on FB when he loses. But I will be verrrrrry happy :)

[Paladin2]

Dear Nate:

It ain't over, 'till it's over.

0bama has certainly left a mess to clean up.

[muir_redwoods]

Ya think, Nate? Really?

[Gay State Conservative]

How did Twinkle Toes do with the Walker recall a few months ago?

[NoLibZone]

Sespite his two month long dialy, even today, prediction that Obama will win and win big, he is inching the towel back. He shall have to use the obscure blog quotes to try and keep his job, LMAO!!!

[Raycpa]

I don’t know who this fool is but if he would just check out the website fivethirtyeight he would know that Romney has no chance what so over.

[TheBigB]

Soooo...Obama will win. Unless he doesn't.

This is what passes for brilliant analysis on the left...

[TheBigB]

Soooo...Obama will win. Unless he doesn't.

This is what passes for brilliant analysis on the left...

[verum ago]

How did Twinkle Toes do with the Walker recall a few months ago?

He did fine, actually. Started off as too close to call about a year out then was mostly "Walker likely to survive" for the rest of the time.

But it was a no-brainer; Walker's approval rating was never underwater. That alone would make him a likely winner, but even then some of the "disapproves" were going to vote for Walker because, regardless of their disapproval, they didn't believe a full-on recall election was justified. When viewed in that way, Silver's performance looks a bit worse, as he should have gone all the way to saying Walker was an almost-certain winner.

Given how straight-forward that race really was (as outlined above), I don't think his performance there reflects positively on his predictions for the presidential race.

[verum ago]

I don’t know who this fool is but if he would just check out the website fivethirtyeight he would know that Romney has no chance what so over.

Nate Silver is the writer of fivethirtyeight.

(But given his ego, it wouldn't surprise me if he cited his own website to support conclusions on his website)

[RichInOC]

Which fool? The one from Politico, or the guy from the Times, or both? Because the fool from the Times is FiveThirtyEight.

[maro]

I think Ray was making a joke.

[cdcdawg]

Nate Silver is actually playing a pretty smart game here. He’s building a following of libs. When he’s wrong, he will suffer no consequences at all because he is a lib. If he happens to somehow be right, he’s a hero. It’s a no lose situation for him. Our scorn means nothing to him.

[LS]

There is a 78.5% chance that Nate Silver will be yesterday’s news by Nov. 7

[verum ago]

I know, but I thought in case Ray wasn’t, I’d post anyway and risk looking a fool who hasn’t had his coffee.

Just as parties have designated drivers, I’m willing to be the designated fool of a thread :)

[Raycpa]

They cannot be the same guy. The guy over at 538 is 75.9876% certain that Romney is a looser. He has no chance in Ohio, all the recent polls show Romney lost his momentum and that Obama is solidifying his lead.