It's all over but the crying part 2, why the media isn't telling you the truth (Ohio)

Bill Spetrino Blog ^ | 10/28/12 | Bill Spetrino

[tatown]

Every major poll has Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney in the pivotal state of Ohio.In the last 70 years Ohio has selected the winner EVERY year except in 1960. This year should be no different.

Now I am born and raised in Ohio and have spent OVER 50 years here. I doubt seriously that NO person who understands investing ,predicting the future and knows more about Ohio politics than me.

First question is why is the national media polls (even Fox )all showing Mr Obama with a lead or a tie? It is simple and you can decide for yourself once I lay out my FACTS,whether these pollsters are ignorant or intentionally dishonest

In 2008 Obama won Ohio by 262, 224 votes out of over 5.6 million votes

However McCain won over 60 of Ohio’s 88 counties . 4 counties, Cuyahoga where I live,Summit its neighboring county, Lucas near Toledo and Franklin in Columbus. Voted for Obama last time by 453,135 more than McCain

So Obviously Obama “needs” a big showing in these 4 counties because the other 84 counties selected John McCain by almost 200,000 votes

I doubt seriously that few if any McCain voters would switch their vote this time to Obama but MANY union workers who aren’t working will no doubt switch

I have reason to believe that those 4 counties will not provide enough votes to carry BHO to victory

Lets examine the largest Cuyahoga County, where I have resided since I was 3 years old.

Last election it carried Obama by 245,467 votes,almost the entire margin of victory.

This county where I live WILL go Obama again but the question is by how much

There was almost 1.1 million voters in Cuyahoga County last year and this year there is 916,000 almost 200,000 less

But there are now 26% more Republicans and 11% less Democrats in Cuyahoga county

The city of Cleveland which is by far the largest city in Cuyahoga County

There are almost 100,000 less registered voters in the city Cleveland in 2012 than in 2008. Part of that is due to the housing crisis and part of that is due to John Kasich the Republican governor, purging the voting rolls of many voters who were not purged under Democratic governor Ted Strickland.

I wont bore you with the”math” but my projections shows Mr Obama winning Cuyahoga county by about 100,000 votes which is about 145,000 less than last time.

Franklin county also has considerably less voters than last time and my projection is that Obama will only carry Franklin by around 16,000 votes a difference of 82,842

So basically in the other 86 counties Romney has to get about 326 more votes in EACH than he did last time

Trust me it is GOING TO happen EASILY

If these Democratic bastions are not supporting the President, how can you think the cities and counties that supported John McCain last time aren’t going to come out in record numbers?

Cuyahoga Falls,Sydney, Cincinnati Defiance all have had record crowds

Cuyahoga Falls drew 13,000 on a Tuesday night when it was under 50 degrees and I talked to a couple last night who were among a large group of thousands who were turned away.

I have talked to at least a dozen lifetime Democrats UNION Construction workers who are voting for Romney because they aren’t working.

Yesterday I drove through Parma Ohio which is the 2nd biggest city in Cuyahoga county. It is full of auto workers and union workers who are traditionally Democratic almost all white voters.

In 2008 the ratio of Democratic signs to Republicans signs were about 4 Democratic signs for every Republican sign. Yesterday the ratio was 3 Mitt signs for every 2 Obama signs. That is a HUGE differential

Then I drove through to the edges of Cuyahoga county and through Summit county which went to Obama by over 43,000 votes in 2008. I counted 45 Romney signs and 10 Obama signs in the 25 minute drive.

I am writing this article because Obama and his minions are using the only tactic left to try and win this: FEAR.

The media wants you to think that BHO has a solid lead in OHIO.But folks it just isn’t true

In part 3 of this series I will explain how the pollsters have this wrong and what INCENTIVES they have to do so

I will also show you detailed “polling” and will show you the actual”math” in coming to my conclusion which i would love to see “the experts” try and deny.

Share this with everyone on Facebook Twitter and through E mails and friend me on Facebook .Those who friend me will be invited to one of the largest Mitt Romney private groups on Facebook where you can see the nationwide electricity

[fortheDeclaration]

Ohio went GOP last election.

The GOP ground game is also very strong.

The fact is that Romney leads in the national polls by +5 and that will translate into a Romney win.

[EDINVA]

That may be but he’s either illiterate or needs an editor. It’s so full of grammatical errors, it’s painful.

[Junior_G]

I wont bore you with the”math” but my projections shows Mr Obama winning Cuyahoga county by about 100,000 votes which is about 145,000 less than last time.

I wish he would bore us with the math--it would give him a bit more credibility, especially since the blog reads like it was written by a semi-literate individual.

[jocon307]

I see the pollsters dilemma regarding what the makeup of the voters will be. It seems pretty clear it won’t be what it was in 2008, but they can’t use the 2010 midterms because those elections get far fewer voters than a pres. race. I think I have read that in 2004 it was just about an even split, nationally.

I’ve been a bit suspicious of Obama’s Ohio lead (or worried about it, depending on my mood). I always think of Ohio as pretty republican, but if they’ve gone with the winner since 1960 that obviously includes Carter and Clinton twice. So I guess they truly are a swing state, at least pres. wise.

[jocon307]

AH, I wish you hadn’t said that about Hitler. Because now you’ve got me lusting to see the “Hitler learns Obama Lost” video(s) that will be available in a few days time.

LOL, the best one of those I’ve ever seen was one hubby showed me about motorcycles: Hitler learns he’ll won’t have a Harley to ride to the Sturgis motorcycle rally (something like that). It was great, whoever did it matched the words to the scene almost perfectly.

I hope the Obama loses one will be just as good, it will be even more enjoyable to watch!

[Bshaw]

“So who is this bloke who doesn’t know the distinction in usage between “less” and “fewer” and uses singular verbs with numbers meant as collections of person, and why should we pay attention to his views?”

Haven’t you learned “Bloke,” that in the USA, grammar, cognition and comprehension are altogether separate.

I subscribe to the author’s views wholeheartedly. November 6th will bear this out to provide you clarity.

Dumb yourself down a bit, if necessary, to see the logic rather than the delivery you find so lacking. Oddly, the Brits thought as you do during the Revolutionary war....

[Bshaw]

Romney will get 315 - 350 EVs.

Landslide baby!

[Bshaw]

Serving. Landslide!

[fortheDeclaration]

Yes, that will be a very funny video, I am looking forward to seeing it also!

[LS]

What people miss about the total #s ar the "Unaffoliated" (Indies). The current D meme is that these ar D voters who went off the registration rolls as Ds when they didn't vote in the last primary. I am checking w OH SecSt today if this definition is true. However, I looked at the decline in U turnout from 08 to the absentees in 2012, and the Us for the most part show similar rates of decline in key counties.

If the Ds from 08 had been dropped off roll in the primaries and shown up as "Us" then I think we should expect to see an increase in Us as Ds swelled their ranks. We have no evidence of that.

Second, by all polls, those Us will vote R at a 10-15% higher rate Han they will D.

Finally, most polls show that SOME Ds will vote for R at a 5-7% higher rate than Rs will vote D.

[snarkytart]

I hope. I’d feel a helluva lot better if just a couple polls showed Romney a couple points ahead in Ohio.

[phockthis]

sfl

[phockthis]

sfl

[Ravi]

Again SOS at state level does not keep tabs of party affiliation. This is only done at the county level. Hocking for example as a county does not tabulate R/D/I compared to other counties.

The secretary of state does not maintain this data. Only the individual counties. Like Cuyahoga. So 345,000 dems registered as dems there. Did all 345,000 dems vote in 2012 dem primary? No. Many had voted in previous primaries and are still listed as dem in Cuyahoga unless they picked the republican or unaffiliated primary to vote in in 2012. Whic I doubt they did.

Again, last primary refers to the last primary that a voter participated in and not the last primary numerically, ie. 2012.

Hope that clarifies.

[nascarnation]

Having bailed out of Cuyahoga County 35 years ago, I have to question the wisdom of somebody who hasn’t left.

[LS]

Ok, spoke to OH SecState office today. You are pretty much correct, Jeff Jacobsen pretty much wrong. When you vote in a primary, you declare a party affiliation if you want. That affiliation stays with you for the next six years. It’s ANY primary, even gubenatorial primaries, or other special elections. You are not kicked into an “unaffiliated” bin by the state.

[Churchillspirit]

What a welcome post!

I've just been watching "The Five" on FOX and that clown Bob Beckel was saying that Obama has a commanding lead in early voting in Ohio and they worked out that Governor Romney would need to get 60% of the votes yet to be cast.

I'd rather believe this firsthand account of the situation there.

Thank you.

[Churchillspirit]

Voter fraud is my main concern also.

I e-mailed Rush today about that MIDDLEMAN -Soros connection.

[nascarnation]

Obama has a commanding lead in early voting

Well it is reasonable to assume he's getting a big majority of the bused-in illegal Somali voters.

[Churchillspirit]

There are no rules in English

LOL.

Wish you had been my English language teacher in school.