It's all over but the crying part 2, why the media isn't telling you the truth (Ohio)

Bill Spetrino Blog ^ | 10/28/12 | Bill Spetrino

[tatown]

Every major poll has Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney in the pivotal state of Ohio.In the last 70 years Ohio has selected the winner EVERY year except in 1960. This year should be no different.

Now I am born and raised in Ohio and have spent OVER 50 years here. I doubt seriously that NO person who understands investing ,predicting the future and knows more about Ohio politics than me.

First question is why is the national media polls (even Fox )all showing Mr Obama with a lead or a tie? It is simple and you can decide for yourself once I lay out my FACTS,whether these pollsters are ignorant or intentionally dishonest

In 2008 Obama won Ohio by 262, 224 votes out of over 5.6 million votes

However McCain won over 60 of Ohio’s 88 counties . 4 counties, Cuyahoga where I live,Summit its neighboring county, Lucas near Toledo and Franklin in Columbus. Voted for Obama last time by 453,135 more than McCain

So Obviously Obama “needs” a big showing in these 4 counties because the other 84 counties selected John McCain by almost 200,000 votes

I doubt seriously that few if any McCain voters would switch their vote this time to Obama but MANY union workers who aren’t working will no doubt switch

I have reason to believe that those 4 counties will not provide enough votes to carry BHO to victory

Lets examine the largest Cuyahoga County, where I have resided since I was 3 years old.

Last election it carried Obama by 245,467 votes,almost the entire margin of victory.

This county where I live WILL go Obama again but the question is by how much

There was almost 1.1 million voters in Cuyahoga County last year and this year there is 916,000 almost 200,000 less

But there are now 26% more Republicans and 11% less Democrats in Cuyahoga county

The city of Cleveland which is by far the largest city in Cuyahoga County

There are almost 100,000 less registered voters in the city Cleveland in 2012 than in 2008. Part of that is due to the housing crisis and part of that is due to John Kasich the Republican governor, purging the voting rolls of many voters who were not purged under Democratic governor Ted Strickland.

I wont bore you with the”math” but my projections shows Mr Obama winning Cuyahoga county by about 100,000 votes which is about 145,000 less than last time.

Franklin county also has considerably less voters than last time and my projection is that Obama will only carry Franklin by around 16,000 votes a difference of 82,842

So basically in the other 86 counties Romney has to get about 326 more votes in EACH than he did last time

Trust me it is GOING TO happen EASILY

If these Democratic bastions are not supporting the President, how can you think the cities and counties that supported John McCain last time aren’t going to come out in record numbers?

Cuyahoga Falls,Sydney, Cincinnati Defiance all have had record crowds

Cuyahoga Falls drew 13,000 on a Tuesday night when it was under 50 degrees and I talked to a couple last night who were among a large group of thousands who were turned away.

I have talked to at least a dozen lifetime Democrats UNION Construction workers who are voting for Romney because they aren’t working.

Yesterday I drove through Parma Ohio which is the 2nd biggest city in Cuyahoga county. It is full of auto workers and union workers who are traditionally Democratic almost all white voters.

In 2008 the ratio of Democratic signs to Republicans signs were about 4 Democratic signs for every Republican sign. Yesterday the ratio was 3 Mitt signs for every 2 Obama signs. That is a HUGE differential

Then I drove through to the edges of Cuyahoga county and through Summit county which went to Obama by over 43,000 votes in 2008. I counted 45 Romney signs and 10 Obama signs in the 25 minute drive.

I am writing this article because Obama and his minions are using the only tactic left to try and win this: FEAR.

The media wants you to think that BHO has a solid lead in OHIO.But folks it just isn’t true

In part 3 of this series I will explain how the pollsters have this wrong and what INCENTIVES they have to do so

I will also show you detailed “polling” and will show you the actual”math” in coming to my conclusion which i would love to see “the experts” try and deny.

Share this with everyone on Facebook Twitter and through E mails and friend me on Facebook .Those who friend me will be invited to one of the largest Mitt Romney private groups on Facebook where you can see the nationwide electricity

[tatown]

This guy is supposedly as familiar with OH politics as anyone in the state.

[tatown]

Ping

[polkajello]

excellent article

[polkajello]

excellent article

[arrogantsob]

Certainly sounds goods.

[apillar]

This sounds pretty similar to what Karl Rove was saying on the Fox Sunday show this morning. Essentially, because of the sheer number of democrats that have dropped off the voter rolls since 2008, even if Romney did exactly the same as McCain did in 2008 Obama’s margin would drop from 450,000 to 50,000. So all Romney needs to do is pick up a few hundred more votes per county than McCain did, (or maybe none at all if Obama’s turnout is even slightly lower than 2008). Rove said the polls aren’t taking this into account and still using the voter rolls from 2008 for their analysis.

[sickoflibs]

Ohio has this prize Nina Turner as Ohio State Senator . She is a regular barking in a rage on the Dem channel about 'voter suppression' almost every night now. She would make a great scary Halloween costume. Like something that comes out on a full Moon.

[tatown]

Did Rove project Mitt the likely winner yet?

[volunbeer]

There are real factors that are difficult for polls to reflect or capture assuming they are trying to tell the truth. There is also the 2008 turnout template that the media continues to use, despite the overwhelming 2010 turnout that led to a historic sweep of the house. I think there are other factors the polls don’t seem to weigh.

The economy voters - Romney has stolen the Clinton mantra of the economy and polls show a widening gap - has to be worth a few points.

The enthusiasm gap - the enthusiasm for Obama is not even remotely close to the “hope and change” 4 years ago - has to be worth a few points even if it is just part-time rats and independents who choose not to vote. I think all of us know plenty of former Obama voters who are not supporting him now.

I also believe the voter fraud gap is going to be measurable in Ohio. Based on my recollection, I think Acorn was huge in the last election in the larger Ohio cities and they really got out a huge vote that led to some of the numbers he gave. Acorn still exists, but it is a shadow of what it was. I believe that means less fraudulent voting - might be worth a point or two.

I am optimistic. Good write up and FRegards.

[MAexile]

Ohio has selected the winner EVERY year except in 1960.

That point could be argued...

[hinckley buzzard]

I agree with this view. He has the basics right. Ohio is pretty secure. The media is holding up hopes for the 'rats in Ohio to prevent a total collapse of the entire obama campaign. Once the people realize Ohio is gone, it's over for the 'rats everywhere.

[SamAdams76]

I think MSM is conspiring to keep Ohio close (with bogus polls) in order to tie up Romney's resources there. Obama can still win re-election without Ohio but if Romney manages to win WI, IA and CO, he will more than offset it and get 273 EVs (provided he also picks up FL, VA, NC and IN which appears to be virtually a lock at this time).

If Obama conceded Ohio to Romney, then Romney would only need 4 more EVs to win (NH) even if he failed to pick up WI, IA, or CO.

This is why the MSM media is scared to death to show Romney ahead in Ohio. For by doing that, they have for all intents and purposes conceded the election to Romney. Ohio is truly Obama's firewall and they will cling to it all the way to election day.

[Jet Jaguar]

Poll ping.

[The_Reader_David]

So who is this bloke who doesn’t know the distinction in usage between “less” and “fewer” and uses singular verbs with numbers meant as collections of person, and why should we pay attention to his views?

[Perdogg]

More importantly, The GOP candidate who has won the popular votes has overperformed in OH an average of 3.61% above the final national number.

[tatown]

Who knows. There seem to be plenty of dipshits in here that trip all over themselves with poll results from propagandists like PPP so this is simply another view from a dude in the battlezone. As far as his English goes, who really gives a shit?

[snarkytart]

We’ll find out in 9 days. Either we’re gonna be serving crow or, we’ll be eating it.
:)

[Perdogg]

I think now there is a new emphases by the Obama campaign for FL. It is a Hail Mary. Some one is now messing with the intrade FL bet

[AU72]

I agree with the analysis however I fear that the Obama campaign is using massive fraud in Ohio with phony registrations, early voting, busing in union apparatchiks, and sowing the IBM phrase FUD, Feat Uncertainty and Doubt.

How much phony votes can they gin up to overcome the real gap. I think they have calculated 150,000 + so we need 200,000 to factor that out.

[berkeleyman81]

This is nice to read, but most of it sounds anecdotal. If there are so fewer voters in these counties, where did they go? If they moved within state, they’d still count the same. Also, the ground game of Obama is insane. I think it will almost certainly be very close, possibly recount.