National Polls vs. Ohio Polls: Which Are Right?

Ever since the first debate in Denver, Mitt Romney has been on an upward trajectory in the polls. While he has leveled off somewhat over the last week, nationally he has turned a four-point deficit into a one-point lead. The lead actually jumps to two points if you include only the eight most recent national (non-online) polls. In those polls, Romney leads independents by an average of 17.5 points, which is a remarkable increase over the past month, and an amazing reversal of Obama’s 8-point lead with independents in the 2008 election. Romney has now been at or above 50 percent in Gallup for 12 straight days and Rasmussen for 5 straight days.

Those same national polls have a Democratic advantage of 4.4 points on average. In 2008, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 7 points and President Obama won the election by 7.2 (52.9 to 45.7). The current polls have the Democratic edge dropping by just 2.6 points while Romney is up 9.2 points from McCain’s 2008 results. This shift is due largely to independents; it’s a worrisome picture for Obama that suggests he is losing, given that Democratic turnout in these polls is probably higher than what the electorate will look like after the votes have been counted.

In general because of very low response rates (just 9% of folks with whom contact was attempted in polls actually ended up providing an answer) the polls, in and of themselves, are meaningless ~ except to those very highly versed in extracting snippets of information from vast amounts of tenuous data.

Roman Auguries did the same thing ~ and that's what folks are doing today as well. Back then we'd let loose a flock of birds in the Forum and then count white spots left behind on the stones ~ and note where they landed. That sufficed for enough random sampling to fool the rubes. Today, of course, we use a computer to call numbers randomly ~ the rubes are easily amused.

Once all that was done we'd bring to bear the news from our spies from around the Empire and we'd come up with something the customer thought reasonable.

In modern times we do the same thing ~ seriously ~ and the customers like what they hear. Of course we are selling the same estimations to the other guys as well, so we make sure each side gets national or state data, as appropriate ~!

My gosh these polls and our inceasant desire to be miserable and stressed out and scared...polls suck and are wrong.

Just vote and use your head...I’m so tired of the polls, which are BS.

* The evil eye from Obama, the late night shows (lacking base solidity)
* The ROmney voters like me who hang up...am I the only one, hope...millions
* the R voters who don’t have signs in our yard for fear of being called racist and losing business as a small business owner...am I the only one? Nope, millions
* will the turnout for blacks be the same? Nope
* will single women vote with the same enthusiasm after watching any 10 minute period of any of the debates? Will they see an angry child and really, really value their genetalia over their overall well being including monetary, military, etc?
* will students even with free education but no jobs REALLY vote with the 2008 enthusiasm? No
* will the coal, oil unions REALLY vote Obama with the same enthusiasm? Come on, wake up...one even made the video.

Get real...turn off the polls and know we are way ahead, more ahead than say, 3% voter fraud. We are way past and beyond Holder’s reach, way beyond Hurrican Sandy’s reach...just listen to Rush a little more and turn off cable and satellite TV...read Freep (except those who keep posting polls), Hot air, Blaze, etc.

Do you remember the long lines at Chick-Filet? That was a great poll.

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