Posted on 10/28/2012 10:15:03 AM PDT by MeanGreen2008
Romney drops a point; Obama still at 46
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
Picture of the week!
The moment it becomes apparent Obama will not win, the bottom will drop out.
Obama's base is composed of low-propensity voters -- youth, minorities, etc. Once it is apparent that it's a lost cause -- probably late next week -- some will switch, millions won't bother. It will go from 52-47 to 57-42 overnight. And, on election day, even worse.
Gallup 10/31 - 11/2 2472 LV 2.0 55 44 Obama +11
Diageo/Hotline 10/31 - 11/2 887 LV 3.3 50 45 Obama +5
CBS News 10/31 - 11/2 714 LV -- 51 42 Obama +9
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/30 - 11/2 760 LV 3.6 53 46 Obama +7
ABC News/Wash Post 10/30 - 11/2 2470 LV 2.5 53 44 Obama +9
CNN/Opinion Research 10/30 - 11/1 714 LV 3.5 53 46 Obama +7
Pew Research 10/29 - 11/1 2587 LV 2.0 52 46 Obama +6
GWU/Battleground 10/29 - 11/2 800 LV 3.5 50 44 Obama +6
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/30 - 11/1 2503 LV 2.0 51 43 Obama +8
Gallup (Expanded)* 10/30 - 11/1 2475 LV 2.0 52 43 Obama +9
Marist 10/29 - 10/29 543 LV 4.5 50 43 Obama +7
FOX News 10/28 - 10/29 924 LV 3.0 47 44 Obama +3
CBS News/NY Times 10/25 - 10/29 1005 LV -- 52 41 Obama +11
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/23 - 10/27 831 LV 3.4 50 45 Obama +5
Rasmussen Reports 10/24 - 10/26 3000 LV 2.0 51 46 Obama +5
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/24 - 10/26 2446 LV 2.0 50 45 Obama +5
Gallup (Expanded)* 10/24 - 10/26 2343 LV 2.0 53 43 Obama +10
For 2004, Actual Results were Bush+2.5
Marist 11/1 - 11/1 -- 49 50 Kerry +1
GW/Battleground 10/31 - 11/1 -- 50 46 Bush +4
IBD/TIPP 10/30 - 11/1 -- 50.1 48 Bush +2.1
CBS News 10/29 - 11/1 -- 49 47 Bush +2
Harris 10/29 - 11/1 -- 49 48 Bush +1
FOX News 10/30 - 10/31 -- 46 48 Kerry +2
Reuters/Zogby 10/29 - 10/31 -- 48 47 Bush +1
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/29 - 10/31 -- 49 49 Tie
NBC/WSJ 10/29 - 10/31 -- 48 47 Bush +1
ABC/Wash Post 10/28 - 10/31 -- 49 48 Bush +1
ARG 10/28 - 10/30 -- 48 48 Tie
CBS News/NY Times 10/28 - 10/30 -- 49 46 Bush +3
Pew Research 10/27 - 10/30 -- 51 48 Bush +3
Newsweek 10/27 - 10/29 -- 50 44 Bush +6
Concern trolling again....so cool.
Washington Post also has Kaine up by 7. As a Virginian, I can tell you with 100% certainty that is BS. Virginia might well turn out to be a close race, but 0bama is not up 4 and Kaine is not up 7.
If you poll VA using a D+25 sample, you’ll see hussein winning by an unprecedented landslide!
The wapo internals are baloney based on the last Presidential election. It’s about as biased in favor of hussein as they can make it and retain a somewhat straight face.
Virginia will be interesting to watch but it’s going to go Romney. As will the rest of the south.
You are correct and like everywhere else in the battleground states a lot will hinge on who has the better ground game. The Rats are busing to the polls anyone and everyone they could find who will vote their way.
I'm still nervous, although I always am election time. What bothers me is the disconnect between state and national polls. I highly doubt both of them are right. Ohio isn't more leftist than the country, despite its local issues. The question is which polls are wrong. State or national. If it's state, we're in good shape. If it's national, we're in trouble.
I already voted and I'm going to be one of those evil vote suppressors on election day. Dead people can't vote. People can't vote in two different precincts. Nor can people go to the polls and pretend to be someone else.
It’s probably an even split between R and D right now in VA. Which means Romney up a few points and Allen and the eyebrows essentially tied.
Romney at 50% in Gallup and Rasmussen. With the undecideds likely to either not vote or vote for Romney (the challenger), things are looking very good for Election Night.
Like they do every election.
Not sure about FoxNews but Gallup had McCain within two points of Obama just a week before the election. Others here have been posting a comparison spreadsheet that points that out.
I think the nationals are pretty accurate with respect to Gallup and Rasmussen - this is their bread and butter, and in the case of Gallup, they've been doing this since 1936 with good success.
So I feel comfortable that Romney is up 3-5 points nationally at this point, which should be enough to yield a solid electoral win. Even better, the challenger usually gets a surge at the end, so a 4-7 point Romney win is definitely in the cards - that would be an electoral landslide and likely bring PA, MI, WI, IA, CO and NH into the GOP column. I think FL, VA, NC and OH are in the bag for Romney. Yes, I think OH is going to come through, otherwise the Romney campaign would be spending much of their time there as that state is so crucial to the electoral calculus needed for a Romney victory.
I think Romney finishes at 52%.
It is going GOP.
No. If these numbers were reversed, FR would be full of people saying how full of crap the polls are. Just like now, for example. They love Gallup and Rasmussen but don’t believe the Ohio polls or Virginia or all the other polls that show Romney STILL doesn’t have the EV he needs.
Check the archive here from 2008. McCain was surging and on election day the media would be eating crow. You can mock people here who are concerned all you want but we have the numbers on our side.
Will you remember this post come November 7? Only if we win. Otherwise: excuses, excuses.
You have shit on your side when it comes to VA. MOST of the polls show Romney ahead in VA. So what now?
Oh and Ras has them tied in OH now too. Go be “concerned” somewhere else.
It’s good to see the sleeping cell trolls blow themselves up when all is lost!
Would you rather have your boy Obama up in Gallup and Rasmussen by 3-4 (for 2 straight weeks) or hanging on to a a wacky theory that he can win the EV by losing the national vote by 4 (which has never happened in history).
LOL!
“I’m hoping for 52-47 Romney at this point. “
I have been predicting that result for a few months now,
and I am praying that I’m right.
Given the huge level of media bias, koolaid drinking from liberals about Obama, and the ‘47%’ factor, it’s the best we can do IMHO.
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