Daily Swing State Tracking Poll Swing State Tracking: Romney 51%, Obama 45%

Rasmussen ^ | 10/27 | Rasmussen

[tatown]

Saturday, October 27, 2012

The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. If you do not already have a Rasmussen Reader account, subscribe now.

Platinum Members have access to detailed demographic information.

In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 51% of the vote to Obama’s 45%. Two percent (2%) like another candidate in the race, and another two percent (2%) are undecided.

[usafa92]

Free Republic is annoying me today. We have a 4-5 point lead nationally, 6 points in the swing states, strong and consistent evidence from Freepers LS and Ravi that Zero is way underperforming his early voting from 2008, which is now being reported on many of the conservative websites and bloggers, yet many continue to hand wring and buy into the media spin...there’s another thread circulating on FR that someone heard that 2 bus loads of Somalis were voting in Ohio and everyone on here is throwing in the towel saying we are going to lose, the Libs are cheating. It’s all over!! Stop it! Go vote, get others to vote, volunteer, knock on doors and stop whining! If Mitt wins by 4-5 points nationally, he is not going to lose the EV. What would this board be like if Mitt was down 5 points!

[Eccl 10:2]

However, I must admit I am concerned about this poll:

http://www.tipponline.com/presidency/news/presidency/todays-daily-tracking-poll

They have Obama up by 2.3%, and they are in the RCP average as IBD/TIPP.

While they have a D/R/I at 38/31/32, they also claim to have called both the 2004 and 2008 elections with the greatest accuracy.

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/67204268/TIPP_accuracy_2008.pdf

Further, IBD is no fan of Obama. Their editorial page is among the most conservative.

[GOPJ]

The Libya Effect is starting to take hold.

I pray you're right. The MSM is doing everything they can to ignore that story...

[hinckley buzzard]

the media cannot report that Ohio has Romney in the lead.

This argument has a lot of merit. It echoes waht happens on election night, when the news programs fight to keep ratings up by not calling key states even as the contest dwindles.

[Anti-Hillary]

Ding Ding Ding!!!!! Tell him what he’s won Johnny!!!!

You have NAILED it!!! Ohio goes to Romney! Their internals tell them so...

[hinckley buzzard]

Michael Barone knows every district and precinct in the country. If he says Romney wins, I would bet on him.

[Mygirlsmom]

Good to hear, boiler! I am in the Milwaukee suburban area - one of the other problem spots. I can count on one hand the number of Obama signs and bumper stickers I see. Very few overall, but acutally more Romney/Ryan than Obama.

I voted yesterday, and my little area tucked in between parts of Milwaukee proper was recently redistricted into the Republican represented area for state offices. Had to stand in line longer than I would had I gone on election day.

[hinckley buzzard]

Unions are not what they used to be in Ohio. Mostly public employee unions now, but all unions altogether are only 13% of the workforce, and they are not united.

I am thinking this is more a factitious distortion by the media/polling enterprises.

[jonno]

Prediction bump...

[jonno]

BTW - I thought this exchange regarding MO polling at DU offered helpful insight into the mind of the left:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014281233#post4

(I’m thinking ‘Glacierbay’ might be a Freeper... 8^)

[boilerfan]

My better half and I will be in your area Monday Night for the Romney Rally. I just ordered my tickets and we are planning on leaving here as soon as we both get off work.

This is going to be fun!

[Mygirlsmom]

I’m jealous! Right now I’m not in any physical shape to be standing for that long - I’ll be there in spirit though. My drive home will surely be a long one, as I have to go past there.

[StAnDeliver]

12th of 20. Not. Even. Close. You were saying?

1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

[patriotspride]

Michael Barone knows every district and precinct in the country. If he says Romney wins, I would bet on him.

---

Agree. You can see how careful he is on election nights not to make wild statements or calls

[patriotspride]

Yeah, of all people I would think Barone can see this. I’ve been sending him our stuff. Clearly Adrian Gray and @NumbersMuncher on Twitter get it.

---

Good. Thanks for your efforts to keep us, and others informed. Helps to have some on the ground non filtered reality

[God-fear-republican]

Its funny. My prediction is based on my fourth model which I believe the most scientific and reliable as it is independent from polling data, just past statistics. After my prediction is made, the most recent polling and Romney campaign and ad acitivities appear to confirm my theory. I did the analysis with fact not emotion, therefore, it might be valid. Most powerful force comes from prayers, please don’t neglect it. Alone we can’t do nothing, but with God, we can do everything. For humor, gas price in OH yesterday is 2.99, today is 3.45, no need for further price control as their cause is lost in OH. LOL

[Burma Jones]

I remember Barone on Fox on Election Night 2004 working the Ohio numbers county-by-county (maybe even town-by-town) and telling us it was over for Kerry well before the state was called.

On that level of nitty-gritty numbers-crunching, I would trust Barone over anyone else.

[softwarecreator]

Michigan will go red.

I am seeing the same thing here in Oakland County.   Last election it was Obama signs by 5 to 1, yet this year there are very few and the vast majority is Romney.  Saw the same thing on a visit into Macomb County last week.  I would be surprised if Michigan goes red ... but it is possible.

[basalt]

i can see your point..but the fact is, ive never been so worried about whats happened to this great nation in just the last 4 years...Socialized Medicine..etc...whats makes it all the more galling, to think that an unaccomplished punk “community organizer” could pull this all off. Never in my wildest dreams did i ever think id see captialism attacked in this country like this. That said, Romney will win handily.. thank God.