Posted on 10/27/2012 7:08:31 AM PDT by tatown
Saturday, October 27, 2012
The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. If you do not already have a Rasmussen Reader account, subscribe now.
Platinum Members have access to detailed demographic information.
In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 51% of the vote to Obama’s 45%. Two percent (2%) like another candidate in the race, and another two percent (2%) are undecided.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
The Libya Effect is starting to take hold. Expect this number for Romney to rise.
getting close to where Obama won this tracking in 2008 53-46 +7.........People are settling and breaking for Romney. Getting close to over for Obama. GOTV.
by the way this is the first time Romney has hit 51% in any Rasmussen daily tracking poll. Significant.
Or as Michael Savage calls it - Libyagate because the first three letters of Libya spells Lib.
I’m hoping this scandal brings obama down.
why is everyone celebrating?? Ohio is still a huge problem, even Dick Morris admitted it on Fox last night. Where are the PACs “Swiftboat Ads” about Libya??? That’s what it will take to seal this(no pun intended). The MSM is simply ignoring it.
Also factor in the carpet bombing of ads and a voting populace in these states that is very amenable to change away from the Disaster. One has to commend the Romney campaign for a steady, unflagging strategy, as if they knew all along this was in the bag. A month ago not many of us was feeling optimistic. For the final 9 days, both hands on the wheel!
I hope the libs continue to ignore these polls and hold up the D+7-D+9 Ohio polls right through election day. It’s what we did in 2008.
Notice the meme now is that Obama can win EVs and lose national vote. I have seen several of these narrative-building stories in the MSM over the past 3-4 days.
Bottomline: If Romney wins the national vote by 3-4-5 it is statistically impossible to lose the electoral college vote. Only if the national vote is under 1.5% can this happen.
Not celebrating but If Romney pulls out a 5% win and wins well in swing states, Ohio will fall, if Wisc, PA, and other blue states are in play, Ohio will most definitely fall, do not believe the poll crap on Ohio, the media knows if they hand Ohio over in polling to Romney, this race is over, toast and they have nothing to do for the next ten days but wallow in pity, Ohio is the hold them up numbers wedgie by the media.
Then why are they still called swing states?
I completely agree with you.
As I mentioned earlier, IF Gallup is correct and this turnout ends up being R+1 Romney will win this thing by 10+ points and every single state will be in play (including CA). FWIW, a poll released yesterday showed Obama at a meek 53% in CA and that number does not assuming a huge R wave....
NOTE: Adrian Gray, one of the best numbers guys out there, has been tracking OH bellweather counties. Rs up .01 in these bellweathers in early voting. If that’s true, then the election is over. We always overperform on election day itself; and this doesn’t even factor in Indies!
I somewhat disagree, Obama can win with 2-2.5 point deficit in national poll, but it would be very unusual. Rasmussen has Romney back up by four national, which is outside Obama’s credible win the electoral college but lose the national vote window.
Saturday, October 27, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 50% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 46%
What’s more important than the 51% number is the 45% number.
Ohio is only a “huge problem” if Obama wins all of the other states that were shown as “leaning Obama” as recently as six weeks ago. I don’t think this is going to happen, and I would not be surprised to see a scenario unfold where Romney wins even without Ohio due to a couple of unexpected “red” states on Election Day. Michigan and Pennsylvania are now in play, and there are a couple of states where Romney is polling surprisingly well considering how “blue” they usually are (Oregon and New Jersey, for example).
Very nice!
Now, I am looking forward to your noon report (CDT) on Gallup!
I hope the ABCWASHPO goes back to +3, as that will also move the RCP
This is great news BUT the lame-stream has plenty of time to concoct a Zero ‘come back’. This is evident on CNN with their poll today of Zero at 50 and Romney 46 in Ohio — yet nowhere could I find a link to the poll internals.
Very, very nervous what kind of avalanche of fake polls the Lames will foist on the dumb-ass undecideds while the Bengazi story is ignored.
Very, very nervous about these stories of people voting for Romney and the machine registers it as a vote for Zero. (How many did this happen to that did not NOTICE?)
Very, very nervous that the Dim attempts to steal this election will dwarf anything they did in 2000.
I just want this to be over and that LIAR/MURDERER in the oval office to be FIRED.
SEND IN MORE UN OBSERVERS!!!!!!!!!
Based on the statistics of the last 4 election beginning with Clinton/Dole and ends with McCain/Obama, I used the following data:
Average of %D votes
Obama’s 2008 %D votes
National Minority increase turn-out of 4% in 2008
%R hard-core Republicans for Mc Cain in 2008
Obama-factor %= 2008 %D minus avg %D
Since minority 4% is no longer there this year, so I give 2% back to D and 2% to R.
And assume Obama factor was completely negated this year. After subtracting out 2% from Obama factor (2008) from each state, I came up with %R projected for Romney this election.
Summing up, my formula is as follows:
O-factor = %D (2008) - %D avg (1998-2004 elections)
Swing for Republican this year (by Independents and low voter turn-out):
Swing = O-factor – 2%
%R for Romney form each state = %R for McCain + Swing
And I predict the followings based on past % win/loss of each state :
Romney will win CO (52.4%), FL(51.3%), IA (49.2%), NH (50.1%), OH (49.4%), VA (52.1%), Wis (49.7%) for total of 295 votes.
He might win the followings if the turn-outs are low: Michigan (50.2%), Minn (49.0%), NV (47.7%), Oregon (48.9%), PA (48.0%) for total of 330 votes or so.
You can get the stats of past elections from the following site to do your own math:
http://unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_02.cfm
For some states such as New England states and Michigan, you might want to use Bush’s numbers to increase Romney popularity slightly.
And the updated news today is that Romney begins to buy ads in Wisconsin and PA indicating his internal pollsters seeing the same as I have predicted.
Oregon has begun to swing toward Romney as well.
Just for fun and a peace of mind.
Rasmussen has OH 48-48. If Obama is at 48% on Election Day, that is his ceiling. Obama is failing to break 48 in a lot of the swing states which tells me he is going to lose most if not all of them.
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