He mailed me the following:
They had 27 Greyhounds to bus people over to election HQ to vote after President Obama came here. After the third bus arrived, empty, they quit. They had three floors set aside to register people. As you see . . . . LS
R:50 O:46
Overall Presidential approval number is down to 47
However, oddly, the Approval Index is back up to -10%
I think this reflects hardening of the vote
The Governor is also 23 (yes, 23!) up with independents.
However, he has now fallen 9 behind with women (he is 18 up with men)
NOTE: Many of these numbers are internal and will not be available at the link above
Obama must react-Next on Pimp with a Limp!
Romney back up to a 4 point lead. Obama approval actually down to 47/52 (-5). The strong index is only -10 but only because his strong approval went up to 33 (it’s average has been about 28-29). The strong disapproval went up to 43 – that is not good for an incumbent. I think this is due to a closing of the election and firming up of Obama’s base.
Other stats: Romney is actually up 51-46 with leaners but math wise it rounds down to 50 (50.47).
Also Romney up 23 now with Indies. That is big. “Other” (Hispanics, Asians) in the Right Track/Wrong Track category is at -20.
Finally, I did the math and Rasmussen is using a D+3 model.
There were rumors he changed suddenly to a D+6. Not true.
Here’s my math based on the 39/36/25 model Rasmussen has published in recent weekly surveys.
The pctg of each party id is based on Rasmussen’s crosstabs of each candidate’s support.
Romney
Republicans 88% * .36 = 31.38
Democrats 11% * .39 = 4.29
Indies 58% * .25 = 14.50
Total = 50.47 (rounded down to 50%, but so close to 51%)
Obama
Democrats 86% * .39 = 33.54
Republicans 10% * .36 = 3.6
Indies 35% * .25 = 8.75
Total = 45.89 (rounded up to 46%)
Wouldn’t be concerned with the day by day numbers as far as the internals and even the headline number.
On the Rass site he says the best way to view the polling is on a weekly basis rather than daily because the trend is seen when the view is expanded and a much more accurate picture can be seen.
I noticed this after the first debate, the approval rating has become decoupled from the voter support figures; that seems to indicate that, for some people, nothing Obama can do will change their vote.
The fact that Obama lost a point since yesterday’s poll is significant. This point shaved off is added distress over the Benghazi scandal. Fox News and talk radio are covering this deadly disaster and hitting the conscience of some democrat voters (I think largely retirees) who can’t take any more of this President’s disgraceful performance.
At this stage, a point loss for Obama is extremely bad and likely fatal as we move into the last week of the campaign. Watch the dominoes fall in PA, WI, MI, IA, CO and yes, OH. Also keep an eye on MN, NV, OR.
Seeing all of these polls, it’s looking like 0bama is going to have a hard ceiling of 47%. Looking like a Romney win by 52/47(the other 1% going to misc 3rd parties), if nothing changes.
...I guess the binders, big bird, first time sex ads along with the BullSh***er is working for the evil black turd! Incredible! So it ain't far fetched the female species really DOES take after Eve's DNA....bunch of stupid idiots!
The gender gap is huge (27 points!) if this hold to election day, I belive it will be the biggest in history. I think Obama probably got some traction from the Mourdock deal, but what's he gained from women he's lost far more with men (I'm guessing because of the Benghazi situation). Women tend to vote more than men, but not a whole lot more, 48/52 (3-4 points or so). So wining by 18 points with men more than makes up for losing by 9 points with women.
As for independents, I just don't see any path Obama can win by if he loses independents by 23 point.
Will they still be undecided standing in the voting booth? Or will they (hopefully) be undecided all day at home, staring at the car keys? "Gosh, should I pick the keys up, or should I have a bowl of Cheerios? Or maybe I should sit in this chair...I'm so undecided!"
From the internals, it looks like support for Romney by independents is flying off the charts. And this poll is still only +4? Ras must be adding special sauce.
Shouldn't we expect this number to decrease as we get closer to election day? I mean, when you're ready to go ACTUALLY VOTE for somebody, wouldn't you be more likely to say you "Strongly Support" them?
Did Ras track this kind of number in 2004?
Just vote and use your head...I’m so tired of the polls, which are BS.
* The evil eye from Obama, the late night shows (lacking base solidity)
* The ROmney voters like me who hang up...am I the only one, hope...millions
* the R voters who don’t have signs in our yard for fear of being called racist and losing business as a small business owner...am I the only one? Nope, millions
* will the turnout for blacks be the same? Nope
* will single women vote with the same enthusiasm after watching any 10 minute period of any of the debates? Will they see an angry child and really, really value their genetalia over their overall well being including monetary, military, etc?
* will students even with free education but no jobs REALLY vote with the 2008 enthusiasm? No
* will the coal, oil unions REALLY vote Obama with the same enthusiasm? Come on, wake up...one even made the video.
Get real...turn off the polls and know we are way ahead, more ahead than say, 3% voter fraud. We are way past and beyond Holder’s reach, way beyond Hurrican Sandy’s reach...just listen to Rush a little more and turn off cable and satellite TV...read Freep, Hot air, Blaze, etc.