Romney back up to a 4 point lead. Obama approval actually down to 47/52 (-5). The strong index is only -10 but only because his strong approval went up to 33 (it’s average has been about 28-29). The strong disapproval went up to 43 – that is not good for an incumbent. I think this is due to a closing of the election and firming up of Obama’s base.
Other stats: Romney is actually up 51-46 with leaners but math wise it rounds down to 50 (50.47).
Also Romney up 23 now with Indies. That is big. “Other” (Hispanics, Asians) in the Right Track/Wrong Track category is at -20.
Finally, I did the math and Rasmussen is using a D+3 model.
There were rumors he changed suddenly to a D+6. Not true.
Here’s my math based on the 39/36/25 model Rasmussen has published in recent weekly surveys.
The pctg of each party id is based on Rasmussen’s crosstabs of each candidate’s support.
Romney
Republicans 88% * .36 = 31.38
Democrats 11% * .39 = 4.29
Indies 58% * .25 = 14.50
Total = 50.47 (rounded down to 50%, but so close to 51%)
Obama
Democrats 86% * .39 = 33.54
Republicans 10% * .36 = 3.6
Indies 35% * .25 = 8.75
Total = 45.89 (rounded up to 46%)
Turnout is the key..
Democrats 86% * .39 = 33.54
Republicans 10% * .36 = 3.6
Indies 35% * .25 = 8.75
Total = 45.89 (rounded up to 46%)
I love the idea that 1 out of 10 Republicans would vote for Obama.