Posted on 10/25/2012 6:36:14 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
Yet it appears in Drudge's headlines as being now closed. It doesn't make sense as a few days ago we read Romney is too far ahead with men to not lose this.
What do you think?
What do you think?
What do you think?
Sherrod Brown's negative attacks on Mandel have taken a toll. I couldn't turn on my PC without seeing one for months since summer.
Plus Brown has been a politician longer than Mandel has been alive.
hmmm....man, I sure hope Mandel can pull this out!!!
I think every national and swing state poll I have seen lately that has a significant Obama lead has had an unrealistic turnout model, showing better turnout for the One than he got in 2008. But in every state that has early voting, the GOP is well ahead of their 2008 performance in requesting and returning early ballots, while the Dems are well behind their 2008 pace. So I think Romney is doing significantly better in some of these states than the top-line numbers would indicate.
If you look at the numbers that make up the RCP average for NH, for example - the only reason RCP doesn’t show a significant Romney lead is a single poll from UNH that gave Obama a 9-point lead. All other recent polls show a Romney lead in the state. In Ohio, the two polls that gave Obama a 5 point lead had D+7 and D+9 samples. The IBD poll (the only tracking poll that shows Obama leading nationally) uses a D+7 sample, and predicts the GOP turning out LESS than independents.
I do too.
I think he can win. I just think it might take Romney winning with 52% to pull Josh over the 50% line.
Not safe yet. I’m not confident yet. I’m too used to the bad guys winning the battles, even though I know that, in the fullness of time, Good wins the war.
I really hope Romney does something Charming and Heartwarming in the next few days... and that Obama does something really stupid and revealing.
Sorry...
If it's a one-point Romney edge at the end of the day, that could happen. But if it ends up Romney +3 or +4, it would be very difficult for one of the Romney combo of swing states such as Ohio or Wisconsin + New Hampshire NOT fall. Ohio has predicted the winner in every election since 1960 and has been within 3 points of the national average -- usually boosting the vote total of the winner.
Ras Sneak Peek: R:50 O:48 in Virginia
Maybe you should start adding the 2004 data to the grid as well. As I remember, around this time is when Bush took the lead, and kept getting better as the election got closer.
No wonder Obama the schmuck has to go around cussing about Romney..he knows he’s already lost
Great chart .Shows the communist Obama is finished imo.
You misunderstood. Romney is leading in the NATIONAL polls...that’s all states combined. There are key “battleground” state polls that show Romney is leading, but when you listen to all of the talking heads, Ohio is the key to this election, with Romney trailing by 1 or 2 points in Ohio. The data seems to be conflicting the reported stories. I am NOT suggesting that Romney is going to win states like CA or NY.
Taking a look at the internals of the WashPost/ABC polls, http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2950192/posts which they very surprisingly have broken down by days, there is a suggestion (watch the statistics) of a drift upward for Romney in the last few days. Whether Libya or the debate, who knows?
Could simply be the leaners cashing out their chips. People may have intended to make their final decision after the third debate. Now that they’ve seen it, even if Romney didn’t win it, he still may be winning in net points from all the debates. In other words, they may have been leaning to Romney and just wanted to make sure he didn’t completely fall apart in the last debate. Now they have no other event with the candidates left to wait for, so they decided to decide.
“A president at 47% (there it is again) with 12 days to go is in serious trouble. And a challenger at 50% (in both Gallup and Rasmussen) for almost a week now is looking really good.”
With so many polls showing Zero stuck at 47%, have you noticed the ObamaStreamMedia has STFU about Mitt’s 47% moocher comment?
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