Posted on 10/24/2012 2:53:54 PM PDT by Perdogg
The new CNN/Time poll. What are we going to do with it? The top-line of the poll says Obama leads by 5, 49 to 44 but everything underneath says that poll has little basis in reality.
Independents
In 2008 candidate Obama won Ohio by 5 percentage point while winning Independents by 8 points. In today’s CNN/Time poll, Mitt Romney leads with Independents by an incredible 13-points but is down overall by 5-points. That is simply not plausible.
Party ID
The party ID in this poll was D +9 (Dem 37, Rep 28, Ind 29). This compares to D +8 in 2008 (Dem 39, Rep 31, Ind 30) and R +5 in 2004 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind 25). There is no chance the Democrat turnout advantage will exceed Obama’s 2008 best in a generation turnout which we write as D +8 based on the CNN party ID generally used. This is even though the actual 2008 party ID was really only D +5 making this D +9 that much more unrealistic.
Early voting and the likely voter screen
Early voting is creating a unique problem for polling organizations this year. Since Democrats tend to vote early, you see the Democrat candidate typically leading by wide margins in early voting. According to the CNN survey “respondents who say they have already voted, Obama holds a two-to-one lead over Romney, 60% to 30%.” So we know upfront in early voting there is an overwhelming number of Democrats.
When it comes to polls, all voters who said they already voted make it through the likely voter screen and end up in the final results. Approximately 17 percent of the respondents were early voters while 83% had yet to vote. This means a 17% segment of those polled are guaranteed to make it through the likely voter screen and we know that group supported President Obama by a 2-to-1 margin. This inherently over-samples Democrats which practically guarantees a favorable result for Democrats. The problem with early voting and polling ahead of election day is the results will skew in favor of the party with the higher early turnout, in this case the Democrats. That’s one of the ways you end up with a party ID of D +9 when there is no chance of that turnout occurring on election day.
It was nice of CNN and Time to spend the money to run a poll of all-important Ohio, but I think this poll did little more give false hope to Democrats who are likely in for a rude awakening on election night thanks to unrealistic polls like this one.
I also think it will be a Pyrrhic victory - because his overcommitment to Ohio will cost him Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and maybe even Nevada and Michigan.
The wife and I just decided we are going to go ahead and vote early here in the next few days.
Our household will give RR 3 early votes in Iowa to offset Obambi’s big “vote early” campaign.
disagree.
Excellent!
Thanks was thinking a registered, not likely voter, poll.
It’s high but reasonable.
They are really delusional.
Ohio is going GOP.
Isn’t the real party turnout something between the 2008 and 2010 numbers? That would place the race in a dead heat.
I concur, and I posted a bit of my thinking as to why in another thread:
What has been ignored in all the discussion about polling is that, historically, the GOP candidate's share of the vote in Ohio correlates very closely with his share of the national vote.
In 2008, McCain earned 46.5% of the national popular vote; his Ohio share was 47.3%. In 2004, George W. Bush earned 50.7% of the national popular vote; his Ohio share was 51%. In 2000, George W. Bush earned about 48% of the national popular vote; his Ohio share was 52%.
You can go back even further, but the results are the same - GOP candidates tend to equal or overperform their national popular vote percentage. I feel confident in predicting that if Romney is leading in the national polls on Election Day, he will carry Ohio.
I hate to disagree, but Ohio is far more favorable to Romney than is Pennsylvania or Michigan. I remain very confident that Romney will carry Ohio, and believe he will not carry Pennsylvania.
They're doing this so after Romney wins they can propagandize the meme that he stole the election.
“What are we going to do with it?”
This is desperation with heaping loads of lies and propaganda to make the leftist freaks feel good. After this election, patriots need to make a concerted effort to stomp their leftist neighbor’s balls into the concrete.
Personally, after seeing the early voting stats, I’m MUCH more confident. If they don’t bury us in early voting, they lose. We are actually WINNING many of the key counties, though.
Well, so far it’s been an epic fail. They had 27 Greyhound busses to take blacks from the Obama event to vote and expected “thousands” of early voters. One bus arrived full, after that, nothing. They ended up with 300.
I don’t understand where the 2,200 number comes from. Is that “in-person” voting you are referring to, as opposed the 28,000 AB’s already cast?:
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html
Thanks in advance.
It’s in Montgomery County, and it does NOT include absentees. It is the “in person early voting #,” and it is EARLY voting, not necessarily absentees, that killed us in 08. They are seriously screwed.
Good to hear. And here in West Texas, where even the Mexicans vote big for Republicans, they are reporting unprecedented early voting turnout.
I think the GOP is energized, hopefully cross-country.
With all the wise men saying that the Republicans can’t win the election without winning Ohio, I hope Romney wins in a 49 state sweep but loses in Ohio. Maybe the Social Democrats would go to court and claim that Romney could not have won because he lost Ohio.
If Democrats like to vote early and the early vote is down drastically it must be because the Ohio Democrats are all revved up to run in and vote on Election Day! Right?
McCain WON OH on election day, but lost in early voting.
I stand by my 3-4% Romney win in OH prediction.
Every West Texan I know is voting Republican =)
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