Posted on 10/24/2012 2:53:54 PM PDT by Perdogg
The new CNN/Time poll. What are we going to do with it? The top-line of the poll says Obama leads by 5, 49 to 44 but everything underneath says that poll has little basis in reality.
Independents
In 2008 candidate Obama won Ohio by 5 percentage point while winning Independents by 8 points. In today’s CNN/Time poll, Mitt Romney leads with Independents by an incredible 13-points but is down overall by 5-points. That is simply not plausible.
Party ID
The party ID in this poll was D +9 (Dem 37, Rep 28, Ind 29). This compares to D +8 in 2008 (Dem 39, Rep 31, Ind 30) and R +5 in 2004 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind 25). There is no chance the Democrat turnout advantage will exceed Obama’s 2008 best in a generation turnout which we write as D +8 based on the CNN party ID generally used. This is even though the actual 2008 party ID was really only D +5 making this D +9 that much more unrealistic.
Early voting and the likely voter screen
Early voting is creating a unique problem for polling organizations this year. Since Democrats tend to vote early, you see the Democrat candidate typically leading by wide margins in early voting. According to the CNN survey “respondents who say they have already voted, Obama holds a two-to-one lead over Romney, 60% to 30%.” So we know upfront in early voting there is an overwhelming number of Democrats.
When it comes to polls, all voters who said they already voted make it through the likely voter screen and end up in the final results. Approximately 17 percent of the respondents were early voters while 83% had yet to vote. This means a 17% segment of those polled are guaranteed to make it through the likely voter screen and we know that group supported President Obama by a 2-to-1 margin. This inherently over-samples Democrats which practically guarantees a favorable result for Democrats. The problem with early voting and polling ahead of election day is the results will skew in favor of the party with the higher early turnout, in this case the Democrats. That’s one of the ways you end up with a party ID of D +9 when there is no chance of that turnout occurring on election day.
It was nice of CNN and Time to spend the money to run a poll of all-important Ohio, but I think this poll did little more give false hope to Democrats who are likely in for a rude awakening on election night thanks to unrealistic polls like this one.
Ohio elected a conservative republican governor in 2010. So tell me what the 2010 turn out was...then we will have the true story
The more they skew these polls, the more they will hurt come Nov. 7.
Most polling joints at least make an effort to get accurate when they know an election is near to check their work against.
These guys seem to have completely given up worrying about their reputations.
Wish this thing would hurry up. Im going to be sick watching these polls the next two weeks
Then why should they bother showing up?
bs
So it this the deal? We lose Ohio, we lose? Thats it????!!!!
So it this the deal? We lose Ohio, we lose? Thats it????!!!!
The Romney campaign has the internal poll info. Unfortunately, peasants like me are not privy to them but...I would guess that it’s looking much better than this worthless Time poll.
nope...without Ohio Romney still has three different ways to win...it was explained this AM on F&F’s
Do these people even care if they have any credibility left?
They can’t get the numbers they want so they just keep increasing the D’s until they feel good about it. +9 Dems? Adding more dems doesn’t translate to voters. I hope everyone remembers this well for the next election because I bet they change course right before the election to appear accurate.
I am convinced Romney is much further ahead of the Kenyan in Ohio, otherwise they would not need to be so deceptive.
see if you can follow this...
Romney will win Ohio by 2.5 or more.
2008 total early votes 10,400
2012 total early votes 2,200
Not only are the total early votes down by 80%, but from this article we get what appears to be bad news, that Ds are getting 2/3 of the early vote. But wait! that means that of that 2,200, the Ds only got 1,400!
Got new for ya: that won't do it to win OH.
So in other words, CNN/Time finally got the sample right?
As I explained before, assuming Romney has a lead nationally, he is probably winning Ohio.
a. If Romney flips ME-CD2, IN, FL,VA,NC,and CO and all of the NE-CD2 and wins the McCain States, he would have 258.
b. If Romney then flips IA, NV, NH, this will take him to 274.
I believe that (a) will happen.
IA, and NH are likley and NV would be difficult, but possible.
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