Posted on 10/24/2012 2:38:13 PM PDT by Perdogg
A new poll released today by Time magazine shows President Obama with a 5-point lead in the critical battleground state of Ohio, which has sided with the winner in 27 of the last 29 presidential elections.
To answer your first question: the Time poll of 783 likely voters relies on a D+9 sample. Thirty-seven percent of respondents identified as Democrats, while 28 percent were Republicans and 29 percent Independents.
(Excerpt) Read more at twitchy.com ...
I think Rasmussen has it dead even in OH.
Obama’s out. A challenger polling ahead or even tied nationally and gaining momentum will always win.
That wasn’t a good poll.
Thanks for posting that! God bless 'em! Hopefully they'll talk up Josh Mandel too. I've been concerned that a local progressive group has been in the neighborhood the last week but there's no Romney ground game here.
It feels surreal this year. There's not a single Obama sign in the whole neighborhood. Four years ago they were everywhere. There isn't a sign for ANY Dem candidate in my entire neighborhood. Lots of Romney and Mandel signs :)
If voter turnout is anything like my neighborhood Chik-Fil-A Appreciation Day was, Romney and Mandel will do fine.
I’d love to do some of those things but hubby won’t remove my strait jacket....:-/
I said basically the same thing in another post earlier today at FR :
“The media just simply will not show Romney leading Ohio until the very, very end. They have way too much hope invested into this meme that they can win if they win Ohio. Democrats have become so obsessed with this strategy/story or whatever one wants to call it of Ohio that they can’t let it go.
I have almost humorously wanted if I could figure out how to create a map that the MSM would produce in which the whole country is red except Ohio which would be blue.”
Every poll always shows Obama slightly ahead or tied no matter how much momentum Romney has or what the internals show or what early voting figures are. Romney gains 6 points in PA, 3 in Iowa, 2 in NH, 2 in CO but.... zero in Ohio. That’ll be the pattern.
If the polls show Romney ahead in Ohio then they know it’s over.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2949431/posts
That is good information.
I think what we are waiting to see is how undecideds break at the very end. We are banking on them moving to Romney, but it doesn't seem like there is enough evidence yet to say if that is true. Right now the race in Ohio and nationally seems to be tied. Maybe this cycle is slightly different due to the massive amounts of time and money the Democrats have poured in to Ohio. Perhaps Obama is up a couple of points there, but if there is even a slight wave toward Romney that should be enough for him to carry Ohio.
Democrats have won 4 times while losing Ohio to the Republicans—1884 and 1892 when Grover Cleveland was the candidate, 1944 when FDR was running for a fourth term, and 1960 when it was Nixon vs. Kennedy. Of course in two of those cases the outcome was a bit dubious...Cleveland won the national election in 1884 by carrying New York state by an extremely narrow margin which could have been the result of voter fraud in New York City, and Nixon’s loss in 1960 is well known.
I love a woman that wears a leather straight jacket. Got boots too?? ;>)
Yup.
;)
AWESOME!
All these polls are making me crazy! I will just wait for November 6.
Let’s see, 37+28+29 = 94. So, 6% declined to state their party affiliation? Certainly wouldn’t be many 3rd party responses, so I bet most of the 6% are extra DEMs.
Ironically enough, I am more encouraged by this poll than the Ras one showing a tie.
The internals here look much more favorable to Romney.
Well, not really. Mittens can win without Ohio, but Obama can’t.
I was depressed after the Ras number came out this morning, but then snapped out of it.
“OK, someone knowledgeable from Ohio tell me what the more realistic D/R/I breakdown should be in the Buckeye State because the above sampling sounds suspiciously unhinged to me.”
Well, 2008 would be the pinnacle of Dem support and that was +8 in a CNN exit poll. The numbers were likely much tighter as the exit polls tend to oversample dems. So this is higher than even that. But, it gets worse. Despite this advantage the results for those that haven’t voted yet still tied. They mixed in a separate poll of voters that already voted and it was a tiny sample size of 145 and it way oversampled Dems by D+14, (numbers suggest it should be D+6), and even worse there were twice as many females as males sampled. They also overweighed this part of the poll to reflect 20% of the total when it’s no where near that.
The most pathetic part of all is that this is a weighted poll. They didn’t just get those #’s and run with them, they chose to weigh the poll this way.
In 2004, Survey USA had Kerry +3 in late October. The sample was 36% GOP, 35% DEM, and 27% IND.
Bush won by 2.1%
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