Posted on 10/23/2012 5:44:59 PM PDT by markomalley
Back in May, I wrote a column laying out possible scenarios for the 2012 campaign different from the conventional wisdom that it would be a long, hard slog through a fixed list of target states like the race in 2004.
I thought alternatives were possible because partisan preferences in the half-dozen years before 2004 were very stable, while partisan preferences over the last half-dozen years have been anything but.
Now, after Mitt Romney's big victory in the Oct. 3 debate and his solid performances in the Oct. 16 and 22 debates, there is evidence that two of my alternative scenarios may be unfolding.
The list of target states has certainly not been fixed. Barack Obama's campaign spent huge sums on anti-Romney ads to create a firewall in three states that the president won narrowly in 2008, Florida, Ohio and Virginia. But post-debate polling shows Romney ahead in Florida and tied in Virginia.
National Journal's Major Garrett reported last week that Obama strategist David Plouffe omitted Florida and Virginia in a list of key states but mentioned Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. Obama carried the latter three by 10, 10 and 12 points, respectively, in 2008.
So much for the firewall. In addition, polling shows Romney ahead in Colorado, which Obama carried by 9 points last time, and the race closing in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, which Obama carried by 14, 10 and 16 points, respectively.
That tends to validate my alternative scenario that Mitt Romney would fare much better in affluent suburbs than Republican nominees since 1992, running more like George Bush did in 1988. The only way Pennsylvania and Michigan can be close is if Obama's support in affluent Philadelphia and Detroit suburbs has melted away.
This also helps explain why Romney still narrowly trails in Ohio polls. Affluent suburban counties cast about one-quarter of the votes in Pennsylvania and Michigan but only one-eighth in Ohio.
A pro-Romney affluent swing is confirmed by the internals of some national polls. The 2008 exit poll showed Obama narrowly carrying voters with incomes over $75,000. Post-debate Pew Research and Battleground polls have shown affluent suburbanite Romney carrying them by statistically significant margins.
In particular, college-educated women seem to have swung toward Romney since Oct. 3. He surely had them in mind in the foreign policy debate when he kept emphasizing his hopes for peace and pledged no more wars like Iraq and Afghanistan.
My other alternative scenario was based on the 1980 election, when vast numbers of voters switched from Jimmy Carter to Ronald Reagan after their single debate one week before the election. In that debate, the challenger showed he had presidential stature and the incumbent president seemed petulant and small-minded.
We saw an even more vivid contrast between challenger and incumbent in the Oct. 3 debate. In the next two debates, Obama was definitely more focused and aggressive. But Romney held his own, and post-Oct. 16 polling showed him improving his standing even though many debate watchers thought Obama won on points.
What we may be seeing, as we drink from the firehose of multiple poll results pouring in, is a slow-motion 1980.
The Gallup tracking poll, whose procedure for designating likely voters makes it very susceptible to shifts in the balance of enthusiasm, has been showing Romney ahead by 5 to 7 points.
That suggests that since the Oct. 3 debate, Republicans have been consistently more motivated to vote than at least temporarily disheartened Democrats.
That's a factor to keep in mind while assessing polls in old or new target states. Some have samples more Democratic in party identification than in the exit polls in 2008, when Democrats were enthused and Republicans downcast.
The usual caveats are in order. Exogenous events could affect opinion (Libya seems to have hurt Obama). The Obama ground game is formidable. Voters who switched to Romney could switch back again.
And if there is a larger reservoir of potentially changeable voters than in 2004, there was an even larger reservoir back in 1980, when Carter attracted white Southerners who now are firmly in Romney's column.
Mechanical analogies can be misleading. Just because Romney has gained ground since Oct. 3 does not guarantee that he will gain more.
But also keep in mind that Romney gained not just from style but from fundamentals. Most voters dislike Obama's domestic policies and are dissatisfied with the sluggish economy. And now they seem to believe have an alternative with presidential stature.
Fred, I'm soliciting your comments on the highlighted section above. Thanks and FRegards
If Romney repeats the electoral map of 2004, except for losing New Mexico, he wins 287 to 251. If he also loses Ohio, he ties 269 to 269 (guaranteeing Romney a presidential win in the House vote but making it possible Biden retains V.P. in the Senate vote).
Based on where the RCP swing states are, the 2004 map is possible, with the New Mexico exception. Every other state is in the same position as 2004 or is a toss-up.
That's a good insurance policy. Nobody wants Biden as the VP. If something were to happen to Romney then Biden would be the POTUS and the Speaker of the House (hopefully Republican) then becomes VP. Right?
No, when a V.P. assumes the presidency, he gets to pick his own V.P. He picked Nelson Rockefeller as his V.P.
That should say Gerald Ford picked Nelson Rockefeller as his V.P.
It’s true. Not that there’s anything wrong with that. Also, since they don’t weight by party ID, Gallup has more natural variation that forced-allocation polls like Rasmussen.
I would never gainsay anything said by Michael Barone on politics, especially at the micro-level. I believe Gallup's LV model is highly tied to interview questions from which they determine likelihood.
In this cycle, it would also correspond to the Party-ID model: Rasmussen actually shows Party ID for Republicans is very close to where it was just after 9/11, which was huge. A FReeper who subscribes to Ras's pay-page claims that Ras is currently coming in under Gallup only because he isn't even using his own LV model, which would be R+1, and is sticking with a very conservative D+3.
If by some miracle, Biden did become President, his VP pick has to be confirmed by a majority of both Houses.
The post would probably remain vacant unless Biden could find someone acceptable to Congress, which is unlikely. Even a lib Republican like Rocky was only confirmed after he took a pledge that he would not run for President before 1984 if he accepted the post. That would probably have disqualified him for age if he had not already died in 1979.
If you’re worried about this being volatile (see my earlier reply) Ras’s — and other’s — alternative Party-ID methodology can potentially suffer from the same problem. Republican Party-ID dipped to historic lows as people got tired of the wars in 2006-2008. It spiked hugely after Bush climbed up the debris pile at the WTC site. All of the methods of prediction have pitfalls.
Who does Obama have left?
Entitlement bums? Well... yes, but even there, I think there has to be a sizable percentage that know you can’t milk a dead cow, and that all BS to one side, the economy is in critical condition. It needs a steady hand that knows what it’s doing.
African Americans? Lots, there, but again, not all by any means.
Gays, Lesbians and assorted whackos? Gay marriage to one side, they’ve gotten almost everything they wanted from Obama and a lot of them have wealth they want to protect. See the dead cow analogy. Protecting the economy is necessary if they are going to protect their assets.
Hollywood Libs? Despite what they say for public consumption, a lot of them have to be worried, too?
I just don’t see how he can win at this point. What’s more, I am not even sure he really wants to. He likes the perks, but he doesn’t like the work. Ex-presidents get lots of Perks, and he’s 10 times richer than he was before he was elected.
So, where does that leave us?
Thanks, Fred.
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