Rasmussen Daily Tracking: MON 10/22: R:49% O:47% Obama -16%

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 10/22/2012 | Rasmussen Reports

[SoftwareEngineer]

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.

[SoftwareEngineer]

These numbers are identical from yesterday. This is a FULL weekend sample (FRI, SAT,SUN) which some believe is not favorable to Republicans

The poll that is out tomorrow by Rasmussen will be the LAST one taken before tonight's debate. It will thus act as our baseline poll

As I commented yesterday, if there is to be an October Surprise, there is a great chance of it happening TODAY. This would be either talks with Iran or some kind of agreement. So keep watching the news

In looking at the crosstabs (which unfortunately cannot be posted) there was a slight weakening in the internals for Gov Romney on Sunday. Basically a point. This will show up in the Swing state report due later today. It is mostly statistical noise

[SoftwareEngineer]

Daily Ras Ping

[Michigander222]

15 days!

[Perdogg]

Swing state 49-46

[Fester Chugabrew]

Seems as if Romney has been consistently spot on when it comes to the 47%.

[nhwingut]

As proof as to why weekend polling is suspect for Repubs, check out the Right Track/Wrong Track....

I’ve been following the RT/WT – as I think this statistic is a string indicator of Obama’s re-election chances.

Today it is 36/57 (-21). Not good. But not as bad as it’s been.

The white block has always been -35+ or so (30/65). While the Black vote has been off the charts positive (i.e. 80/15). (Although today, it’s oddly down to 70.)

The disturbing trend for me is the “Other” (i.e. Hispanics, Asians), this block has consistently been underwater (e.g. 35/55). But today it is almost dead even (41/42) for the first time in recent memory. Just last week, it was -28 (31/59). That’s a 27 point swing in less than one week. The only thing I can think of is the talk of unemployment under 8% and the gas prices have (conveniently) plummeted over the past week. Very odd.

I am going to watch this as the week rolls on and see if we had some weekend noise... or if the low info voters are buying the lowering of gas prices as proof of right track.

Still overall, Romney up 2 with 15 days to go, is a good place to be for the challenger. If he heads into election day dead even, I say he wins by 2-3.

[ConservativeDude]

Incidentally, Oct 22 in 2010, the strong approve/strong disapprove was -17. Today’s number, the -16, is clearly close. Not much has changed in the last two years with regards to obama’s approval.....

[chad_in_georgia]

Has Ras done an Ohio poll? That’s the whole race, right?

[nhwingut]

Incidentally, Oct 22 in 2010, the strong approve/strong disapprove was -17. Today’s number, the -16, is clearly close. Not much has changed in the last two years with regards to obama’s approval.....

Excellent point. Which sort of backs up the thesis that Obama's numbers are not only soft but a house of cards.

If you look at his approval in the 2 weeks leading up to the 2010 mid terms (across the board), it was consistently in the mid 40s. No president in the mid 40s (an average approval rating) would get the shellacking he took if those numbers were legit. The beating his party took, was more consistent with a president in the mid 30s.

[TornadoAlley3]

But CBS has already called the race for Obama. Over. Done.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q2zYi2xn1jo

[MrB]

I saw a woman yesterday with a pink 47% shirt on.
She looked like she belonged in a code pink rally, just so you get an idea of what I saw.

I really, really wanted to ask her if she was proud to be in the group of people considered “takers” in our society.

But, the situation was not conducive to making such a statement.

[BuckeyeGOP]

LOL...even in a faked story they can’t get Obama to 50%

By the way, does anyone know what Ras was with McCain/Obama 2 weeks out?

[TornadoAlley3]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2008/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history

[TornadoAlley3]

http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/preferences.php

[paul544]

Still no breakout. Thought Rassmussen was moving in line with Gallup but that still has yet to happen. If we go into election day like this, it’s going to be heartbreaking.

[TornadoAlley3]

[Personal Responsibility]

Intrade has Romney between 38-39%. He was at 29% before Debate #1 and 34% before debate #2.

[tatown]

I was expecting to start seeing some separation by now. Hope it happens this week!

[Personal Responsibility]

I think this is about when McCain “suspended his campaign” to go back to Washington and work on the financial crisis. That didn’t work out so well for him - he plummeted in the polls right around then.

[ari-freedom]

So I guess the 2nd debate didn’t really help Obama after all.