Posted on 10/21/2012 10:03:52 AM PDT by tatown
Romney-52 Obama-45
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
Rasmussen is oversampling D’s by 4 or 5. I think there is a good chance Ras slowly moves that back to parity over the next week or so. Watch for Romney’s lead to grow...
I’ll give that a try. Rass is weighting Dems up 2 to 4 points. And adjusting calls to those weights. (Even though Rass’s own surveys show the GOP with higher party ID than the Dems.) Gallup is calling likely voters in far greater numbers and takes what people say as their ID as the real party allocation. So, Rass is temping down the potential surge while Gallup is capturing it. That’s at least my theory. Maybe someone else can do better.
Maybe they'll discover that he took off his special underwear while making love to his mistress.
We should be careful of this number for two reasons...1) it may be somewhat optimistic...2) more importantly,the only numbers that’ll matter until 11/6 are the ones coming from swing states.
Even Bob Beckel said last week that, if these numbers are accurate, it’s over.
Let’s give Obama the Big Bird!
Actually I have a theory that Rasmussen is waiting for the final debate to reduce his “positive D” sample
Yesterday I had told my wife that I suspected Rasmussen would do it this way
SAT: R:49 O:48
SUN: R:49 O:47
MON: R:40 0:47 or even 46
We shall see. Obviously my prediction for today came true.
One thing that I feel is holding Mr. Rasmussen back is that he takes GREAT pride in stating that his polls do not “fluctuate” and that everything is “steady” as she goes. Read his commentary and he makes it a point of stating that “Nothing has changed since August” and that these minor swings are basically noise and the race is “remarkably steady”
So, it is not in his interest to show huge gains as that spoils his narrative. I suspect he will move one point a day, either taking one off President Obama or adding one to Gov. Romney
We shall see....
When they feel the left won't riot over a 60-40 results favoring Romney? ; D
Quick edit: I meant
MON: R:50 0:47 or even 46
I wish I was on AOSHQ - I’d call Beckel the name I refer to him in my living room. That Fat Liberal ****...
In your scenario, Romney will drop 7 pts. in one day? Or was this a typo?
I agree with your theory.
Rasmussen is a business man first and foremost. The best way to retain eyes (both R & D’s) is to keep it as a horserace for as long as possible. Once the final debate is in the can, there will be nothing left for Ras to point to as a possibly inflection point IMO.
Ok, forget it. I just read post 31.
Sorry! It was a typo. I meant:
MON: R:40 0:47 or even 46
Rassmussen is already doing that with the swing state poll, which is at 50 R, 46 O. For months the swing state daily poll was almost identical to the national one. Now is much more Republican. I think that may be part of his move in the direction that accurately captures how people intend to vote. The Obama surge after the DNC convention had him moving the other way, IIRC..
Presumably you meant "R:50."
Yes I did.
My fingers have just gotten disconnected from my brain.
I demand a refund from someone...
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