Berg Leads Heitkamp in New N.D. Poll

Hotline On Call ^ | 10/20/12 | By Julie Sobel

[randita]

Berg Leads Heitkamp in New N.D. Poll

By Julie Sobel

October 20, 2012 | 11:35 a.m.

After months of polls showing a dead heat in North Dakota's Senate race, a new survey conducted for Forum Communications Co. shows GOP Rep. Rick Berg breaking out with a 10-point lead.

The poll, conducted by Essman/Research, has Berg leading former Democratic Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp, 50 percent to 40 percent. Ten percent of respondents say they remain undecided.

Heitkamp has a slight advantage among independents (44 percent to 41 percent for Berg), while 15 percent remain undecided.

"I think the biggest takeaway from the poll would be the independents," said Deborah Stearns, vice president and marketing research director for Essman/Research, citing the 15 percent that remain undecided. "I think the independents could have an impact on that race."

There is a gender gap in the poll, with Berg getting 57 percent support from male voters to Heitkamp's 35 percent. The Democrat led among female votes, but by a much smaller margin: 45 percent prefer her while 42 percent support Berg.

A Mason-Dixon poll conducted in early October showed a tied race, with both candidates pulling in 47 percent support.

The North Dakota Senate race has always been considered uphill for Democrats, given the state's red tilt and Mitt Romney's advantage over President Obama -- but Heitkamp is also a strong recruit for the Democrats, and poll after poll has indicated a tight contest. In fact, the poll indicates that just 19 percent of likely voters identify as Democrats, far fewer than the 35 percent who say they are Republicans and the 42 percent who are independents. The memorandum states that, "Although the polling was conducted through random digit dialing, the poll skewed toward Independents and Republicans."

For their part, the Heitkamp campaign criticized the poll for showing "a sample with a partisan makeup completely at odds with North Dakota exit polling and historical trends." Democrats made up 28 percent of the electorate in 2008, according to exit polls, while 38 percent of voters said they were Republicans. North Dakota does not have partisan voter registration. The poll was conducted Oct. 12-15, and surveyed 500 likely voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent.

Updated at 11:50 with Heitkamp campaign statement. Polling editor Steven Shepard contributed to this post.

[randita]

About time this race started Berg with a good lead. With Romney holding a 20 point lead in ND, it seemed incredulous that Heitcamp could win.

[randita]

Good poll for Berg - finally.

[SMGFan]

Will never understand voting for Romney & a Democrat for senate.
Wondering How many states will Romney win but a Democrat will be elected Senator. Time for Romney to address this?

[Perdogg]

I guess since Romney leads by 20 RCP considers this a “lean Romney”, right? - sarc

[Perdogg]

Heller is winning by ten yet he cannot drag Romney over the finish line in NV.

[InterceptPoint]

Indeed it is a good poll at last for Berg. That ones in the bag. Time to go back to work securing VA.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Of course, by that reckoning, Reagan should’ve had 98 Republican Senators in 1984. He had 53 (and more than a few were anything but Conservative).

[onyx]

GO Rick Berg!!!!

[South Dakota]

I sent him some money and I voted for him

[Graewoulf]

Heitkamp is a Democrat running to shore up Harry Reid’s Senate.

If Heitkamp wins that is a vote against the XL Pipeline that runs though North Dakota.

“SUPPORT THE XL PIPELINE, BUILD WITH BERG!”

[rwfromkansas]

Big GOP oversample, though doubt we will lose.

[AuH2ORepublican]

CF, thoughts?

[scbison]

My parents who live in ND, stated if all the oil people who moved their the last few years vote, it will be a landslide..

[joma89]

Any poll that goes against a demo-rat is criticized as partisan. Of course, this is not the case when polls over sample demo-rats.

JoMa

[randita]

I can’t understand it either. Anyone who would caucus with Harry Reid will be an opponent of Romney.

When a Republican is president, the drive by media constantly harps on the concept that people like and want divided government.

When a Democrat is president, you don’t hear word one about divided government.

[GOPsterinMA]

Exactly!

[Impy]

One state is certain to go big for Romney and reelect it’s rat Senator in a landslide. West Virginia. The rat is “popular” and the Republican candidate is a multiple time loser including losing in 2010 after leading in the polls.

Missouri if Akin loses.

Florida is a possibility. I think Romney will take the state but Mack Jr. may run behind him.

Close contents in VA, OH and PA may split but I think it’s more likely they go the same way.

On the flip side Scott Brown has 50% chance to win, Romney can’t win MA.

NV, Heller will win, even if Romney does not win the state.

CT, Linda M has a good chance to win, Romney will not win the state unless he’s winning a huge landslide.

And Hawaii, half a chance at a GOP upset with Linda Lingle in Obama’s safest state.

[randita]

Made a few adjustments based on the latest polls. Flake is a disappointment and will have to ride in with Romney. Kudos to those Republicans who are battling uphill in lean or safe Dem. states (Smith, McMahon, Brown). After a rough start, Mandel is gaining ground. I think Mandel will mirror Romney as Sherrod Brown doesn't seem to be that popular. Thompson and Mack should be doing much better. MO is such a shame - should be well under control and it's a toss up at best. The witch may live to fight another day, but hopefully she'll fade into obscurity in minority status.

WV and WA are lost causes. I think I'll just drop them off the list. Maybe if the GOP takes the Senate, Manchin can be courted but they better not give him some kind of plum assignment in return. Just give him a seat at the table along with any other first time GOP Senate winners, period.

 

10/21/12 Race for the U.S. Senate Ranked Roughly From Most to Least Likely GOP Win
State	Republican Candidate	Democrat/IND Candidate	Hold OR Gain
NE*	Debra Fischer	Bob Kerrey	GAIN
IN*	Richard Mourdock	Joe Donnelly	HOLD
ND*	Rick Berg	Heidi Heitcamp	GAIN
WI*	Tommy Thompson	Tammy Baldwin	GAIN
NV	Dean Heller+	Shelley Berkley	HOLD
AZ*	Jeff Flake	Richard Carmona	HOLD
MT	Denny Rehberg	Jon Tester	GAIN
MA	Scott Brown+	Elizabeth Warren	HOLD
VA*	George Allen	Tim Kaine	GAIN
OH	Josh Mandel	Sherrod Brown+	GAIN
FL	Connie Mack	Bill Nelson+	GAIN
CT*	Linda McMahon	Chris Murphy	GAIN
PA	Tom Smith	Bob Casey+	GAIN
MO	Todd Akin	Claire McCaskill+	GAIN
MI	Pete Hoekstra	Debbie Stabenow+	GAIN
NM*	Heather Wilson	Martin Heinrich	GAIN
NJ	Joe Kyrillos	Bob Menendez+	GAIN
HI*	Linda Lingle	Mazie Hirono	GAIN
ME*	Charles Summers	Angus King (Ind.)	HOLD
WV	John Raese	Joe Manchin+	GAIN
WA	Michael Baumgartner	Maria Cantwell+	GAIN
*Open Seat          +Incumbent

 

[SMGFan]

what is this talk of Minnesota if Amy Klobuchar will be re elected?

I have been singing same song since 1984.
Hope we do not the same garbage results again.

Thank the people for support of GOP President, but why are they such idiots?
Good ticket splitting helps when GOP Senator elected bad if Dem Sen elected.