Posted on 10/20/2012 1:34:49 PM PDT by Red Steel
Anxious to find the right combination of states to win the Electoral College, Mitt Romney’s campaign pushed Saturday into battlegrounds it had largely avoided.
The Republicans forged into the swing states of Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, which the GOP had previously appeared resigned to ceding to President Obama.
Paul Ryan, Romney’s running mate, ripped Obama’s energy policy to a crowd at the Pittsburgh International Airport.
"Gas prices are more than double what they were four years ago - who knows what they're going to be if he got four more years," Ryan said. "Not only are these policies wrong, they...cost us jobs.”
The GOP also bought ad time on Boston television stations, which broadcast into the state directly north.
Though New Hampshire only awards four electoral votes, its importance is magnified if Romney can’t win Ohio. A loss in the Buckeye State, where Obama holds a slight lead over Romney, would mean the Republican would need to almost sweep the remaining swing states.
Obama is making his own push into those battlegrounds, announcing that he will launch a two-day, “around the clock campaign blitz” across six states starting Tuesday.
Air Force One will cover thousands of miles as the President holds events in Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Florida, Virginia and Ohio - and makes a stop in Chicago to cast his own ballot early.
Both Obama and Romney remained holed up Saturday preparing for their last debate, to be held Monday on foreign policy.
They will square off in Florida, where Vice President Biden rallied supporters Saturday.
“With you, we can take Florida,” Biden said in St. Augustine. “If we take Florida, this election is over."
Biden also again touted his campaign’s new rallying cry - that Romney changes positions so much that he must suffer from chronic “Romnesia.”
I remember 2008 when lots of Freepers were saying McCain was going to win. It was not backed by any polls but everyone kept touting the Bradley Effect. How ridiculous does that look now? I think anyone who disagreed was probably attacked.
Of course Romney’s going to do better than McCain but that’s not automatically the same as winning.
That’s not the argument. The data says that Ibama’s early vote #s show such a falloff that he can’t win. Now, if you want to keep going on this, fin but I am not going to talk about 2008. Show me in the 2012 data where Obama wins. Don’t give me polls. Give me evidence from the actual data. But please don’t keep whining about 08.
https://twitter.com/adrian_gray/status/259839492456849408
I’m not aware it’s possible to project the outcome with any confidence based on early voting patterns. I’m not disputing what you say but I’m curious as to where it comes from. Is there a statistical correlation model which produces such a prediction? Is it a computer model? Is it a methodology you developed? Just asking.
That guy just says IA will be close based on early voting, but the polls are showing that too. So early voting isn’t telling us something different than polls, if he knows what he’s talking about.
Well other than the WSJ/NBC poll, IA is close.
Other states, such as NC, also have heavy early voting, but in 08 Ds turned out higher on Election Day, so it's important the Rs LEAD in absentee/early voting (which they have in NC).
IA and NV are just the opposite: there the Ds build up big early voting leads.
We've explained the science here dozens of times. Have you been watching the threads? Let tell you what sold me on this reality. In 2004, late at night they were still counting ballots in IA. Michael Barone was on FOX looking at just one or two counties. He said, with the counties still yet to report, Bush has won. The counties were composed in such a way that if they voted at traditional percentage splits, Bush would win.
That's all we do here. We look at which counties turned out in what percentages, and just draw trend lines. If you have a red county turning out 20% higher than in 08 when it lost by 10% it doesn't take a genius to see that the Rs will win that county.
Every state has key counties that tell you all you need to know. If the early vote is held own in Clark Co. NV. , we win. If the absentee/early vote is heavy in Warren Co. or Hamilton Co. it's pretty likely we win.
Cheers!
See, you’re still not getting it. The guy didn’t say IA “will be close”, what he said was that the early voting percentages (D/Rsplits + turnout) look like 04, not 08. Well, in 04 it was lose but Bush won. In 08 IA was gone before early voting was over because of the D lead in early voting, but that isn’t happening in 2012. Early outing is not about numbers it’s about percentages-— who has the bullets left in their gun? I’m not saying R will win IA, but rather that it looks like 04, not 08, which means Rs are MORE LIKELY to win.
One big static billboard had a picture of a chicken with the caption "A taxpayer voting for Obama is like a chicken voting for Col. Sanders".
Bottom line, the effort is there in W. PA.
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