That guy just says IA will be close based on early voting, but the polls are showing that too. So early voting isn’t telling us something different than polls, if he knows what he’s talking about.
Well other than the WSJ/NBC poll, IA is close.
See, you’re still not getting it. The guy didn’t say IA “will be close”, what he said was that the early voting percentages (D/Rsplits + turnout) look like 04, not 08. Well, in 04 it was lose but Bush won. In 08 IA was gone before early voting was over because of the D lead in early voting, but that isn’t happening in 2012. Early outing is not about numbers it’s about percentages-— who has the bullets left in their gun? I’m not saying R will win IA, but rather that it looks like 04, not 08, which means Rs are MORE LIKELY to win.