On Being Accountable: When Predictions Go Astray

Original Accountability :) | Oct 19, 2012 | By Laz A. Mataz

[Lazamataz]

It's time for me to pay the piper.

It has been observed that the best editorial work keeps the author out of the opinion, and speaks only to the issues of the day. It will be impossible for me to do this, in this editorial, because I must address my own predictions. You see, I've made a series of predictions, of which only a handful seem to have been realized. It's time to hold myself accountable.

In this article, "HEY MITT! Expect, From Obama, These Four Things At the Debate Tonight!(October 16, 2012)", I tell Mitt to expect four things. Let's score them:

1. I tell Mitt Romney to expect numerous and flagrant violation of the Debate rules. On this prediction, I was one-hundred-percent accurate. Obama was quite eager to speak over his time limits, to interrupt whenever possible, and otherwise disregard the format. Mitt Romney was wonderfully prepared for this, and scored repeatedly and brilliantly with his terse rejoinders.
2. I tell Mitt Romney to expect Obama to overwhelm Mitt with accusations, many brand new, and all certifiably false. This one must also be scored as accurate.
3. I tell the team to expect the Obama Middle Finger gesture. Surprisingly, the finger never materalized, not even once. This was a failed prediction.
4. I advise that Obama will be answering any charge made by Mitt Romney, not with an answer, but an ignoring of the question and the making of numerous counter-charges. I score this one as half-right. Sometimes Obama would defend himself, but always, he would lob numerous counter charges.

So in this article, I was accurate to about a 65% level.... which is not much better than a coin toss.

In another article, I boldly predicted a military strike on Iran or Libya no later than October 15th. This 'wag the dog' scenario would be intended to garner the Rally Round the Flag effect. In this prediction, at least to-date, my bold prediction was boldly wrong. It can still happen, but the effect would be minimal in assisting Obama, since it would be too obvious it was a political act.

I think it's clear my crystal ball is not working. I owe an amend to you all, and I should stay out of the prognosticating business. Policy analysis and essays on events that have already occurred are reasonable topics.

But other than that, I boldly predict I will not make predictions of how the future will unfold in the realm of politics.

And given my track record with inferring the future, we can probably expect me to write a predictive editorial or two after all.

[kevkrom]

I think it's clear my crystal ball is not working

I'm afraid to ask what the other one is made of, and whether 50% efficiency will hamper your ability to "hit it".

[Lazamataz]

LOL! Brilliant! :)

[kevkrom]

Thanks.

Oh, and for the record, I work for tips. (Hint, hint.)

[Alamo-Girl]

Meh ... I would rather hear what you think will happen even if you are wrong.

[Colonel_Flagg]

All good columnists make predictions. Some clear the fence; others don’t clear the pad.

So, I won’t use this thread to line my internet bird cage. :)

[WomBom]

(w)right or wrong I dig you baby!

[WomBom]

Or should I have said (w)rite?

[Psalm 144]

Your only errors are due to giving BO more credit for daring than he deserves. He knows he is a pampered squish, so tends to pull in his horns when anything other than talk is required.