Posted on 10/18/2012 12:24:39 PM PDT by Ravi
above
250,000 absentee ballots cast in 2008. 176,000 so far currently. Absentee balloting accounts for about 10% of all early voting between 2004 and 2008. So far so good. Keep an eye on early voting here.
OH: Bellwether counties (Wood, Stark, Lake, Clark)
Wood County (Obama overperformed here compared to his statewide win):
2008: Obama 52.6% (34,285); McCain 45.5 (29,648) 2008 absentee voters: Dems 36% (5491); Repubs 26% (4004) 2012 absentee requests: Dems 30% (3540); Repubs 29% (3446)
Keep an eye on this one. This county always picks the winner. You can see Obama had a 10 point edge after all early voting in 2008 by party registration and ending up winning by 7 against McCain. 2012 he is barely ahead by under 100 votes in terms of voters requesting ballots by party. This looks I repeat looks very promising.
Stark County (Obama win here was almost perfect match to his statewide win):
2008: Obama 51.6% (96,990); McCain 46.1 (86,743) 2008 absentee voters: Dems 44% (20,799); Repubs 27% (12,447)
2012 absentee requests: Dems 39% (11,805); Repubs 32% (9,631)
You can see we've reduced a 17 point advantage for the dems to 2008 to a 7 point advantage in 2012. Dems had a great advantage with absentees in 2008 by 44 to 27 and yet won the county only by 5.5%. Another county to watch.
Lake county (Obama underperformed his statewide win here but still won the county):
2008: Obama 49.5% (60,155); McCain 48.6% (59,142) 2008 absentees: Dems 14% (7343); Repubs 20% (10,275) 2012 absentees so far: Dems 17% (5794); Repubs 23% (7912)
This one is a little tricky because there are so many "unaffiliated voters" compared to Wood/Stark who have not voted in a party primary so both dem/repub voters are muted. Watch how they end up going.
Clark (McCain won here by a little so we need to overperform his win):
2008: Obama 47.7% (31,958); McCain 50.2% (33,634) 2008 absentees: Dems 41% (7403); Repubs 21% (3803) 2012 absentee requests: Dems 17% (2227); Repubs 26% (3351)
Huge shift here but again only 43% of requests are to dems/repubs. 57% to "unaffiliateds." So far it does look like we are overperforming compared to 2008 but those "unaffiliateds will tell the tale.
FL absentee requests look good. FL had 8,000,000 turnout 2008. About 2,000,000 have requested ballots thus far - we are ahead in raw numbers by a couple of points. I never expected even parity here so for us to be ahead by a couple of points with 25% of the vote locked in is favorable. Early voting again will give us more info.
CO mail voter requests look good also. 80% of the vote in 2008 were these mail voters. We are ahead by 20,000 by raw totals (Repubs-673,000 and Dems-654,000 and Indies-598,000). Indies are mailing in their ballots too so that is good. And Repubs lead so that is good. If everyone votes the way I imagine, things appear to be on the up and up. Not many voters left for either party to engage.
2.5 million active voters as of 10/1. 871,000 registered repubs. 807,000 registered dems. 798,000 registered unaffiliateds.
A little confusing with CO is the fact there is a bunch of "inactive" voters. I don't know if these people can vote or not but they do not get to mail ballots like the "active" voters did. Any info here would be appreciated.
IA (this one is giving me a little reflux):
2008: Obama 54% (829,000); McCain 44% (682,000) 2008 all voters: Dems 568,000; Repubs 491,000; Indies 468,000. 2008 early vote: Dems 250,000; Repubs 157,000 2012 absentee requests thus far: Dems 212,000; Repubs 142,000 and indies 108,000.
One difference between 2008 and 2012 is voter registration totals. Dems had 727,000 registered voters in 2008 and now 611,000. Repubs had 614,000 registered voters and now 622,000. We have more room for growth than the dems do and we are slowly catching up day by day in early voting. Also indies favor us this year compared to 2008. This all needs to continue on towards election day.
Any comments/questions/concerns appreciated. I plan to post every Mon/Thurs onwards.
All the best.
ping
I’ll call OH now for Romney. No need to wait til Nov 6th. I’m calling FL for him too. That leaves PA, MI and WI and the early numbers aren’t out yet. There’s no need to wait for the third debate.
This election is over.
Some doom and gloom Freepers here are actually worried about Gloria Alred or Bindergate /sarc. I think the final EV count will be 320+, Romney will win 2008 McCain states + Indiana, Co, Va, Fl, NC, NH, Michigan, Wisconsin, Maine #2, Ohio, Nevada and my shoker in a sqeaker..PA, which the MSM will call about 2am for Romney..he will win my state by about 25,000 votes.
Very encouraging. Thanks, Ravi.
Excellent analysis thanks.
Can I ask you to add some CO 2006 absentee/early voting data for comparison?
Also, if anyone has some extra time on their hands today, it would be great to see how each of these statistics looked in 2000 or 2004.
.
THIS IS WHAT THIS ELECTION IS ALL ABOUT
If you are not wide awake now, you will be when you have finished reading this!!!!!
Columnist Andrew McCarthy gives us what probably is the most important question regarding the upcoming presidential election: appointments to the Supreme Court .
“I will enthusiastically support Mitt Romney’s candidacy. For my friends who have hesitation on that score, Id just ask you to keep these things in mind...”
1. Justice Scalia is 78.
2. Justice Kennedy will turn 78 later this year.
3. Justice Breyer will be 76 in August.
4. Justice Ginsburg is 81. She also has pancreatic cancer.
5. Justice Stephens has already said he would retire and is just waiting for Obama to be re-elected.
The next president could appoint as many as 5 new Justices over the next 4 years, or over the next 8 years if a new President gets a second term. This election is about much more than the ObamaCare Tax. Whomever we elect as president in November is almost certainly going to choose at least one new member of the Supreme Court, in addition to hundreds of other life tenured federal judges, all of whom will be making momentous decisions about our lives for decades to come.”
If you dont think it matters whether the guy making those calls is Mitt Romney or Barack Obama,THINK AGAIN!
FOR ANYONE WHO IS THINKING OF NOT VOTING BECAUSE YOUR FAVORITE DIDN’T GET THE NOMINATION, OR WRITING IN A CANDIDATE WHO CAN’T WIN, PLEASE REALIZE THIS BECAUSE IT’S GOING TO HAPPEN IF THE MARXIST EXTREMIST, BARACK OBAMA, GETS RE-ELECTED:
ERIC HOLDER, SUPREME COURT JUSTICE!!!!!
Id like to put Gloria Allred into an extra large binder and throw her off a cliff but hey that’s just me..Allred has NOTHING on Romney, absolutely NOTHING or else we would have heard it already..and as far as Bindergate goes, only a libtard with an IQ below 5 actually cares about binders..everyone knows what Romney was talking about..Romney has this election in the bag as long as there isn’t any video of him killing a puppy
Can you explain to use worry warts why the polls show zerO ahead in Ohio then?
It’s very weird to me.
Wood will not lead you astray.
The latest poll shows Obama ahead in OH only within the margin of error. Which is meaningless.
Romney is going to carry the state very comfortably and no presidential candidate with a nationwide lead of 52% in Gallup at this point time has ever lost OH.
You can take that to the bank.
okay, I hope. I just don’t get why polls show zer0 ahead there and behind nationally. You’d think Ohio would catch up eventually. I’m just nervous depending on election day for Ohio to come along.
..after what Gov. Walker survived recently, is there any doubt that Wisconsin is going to go RED?
I see a good chance Romney will take it. The Democrats are demoralized and a good many of them will stay home rather than vote for a candidate who has no chance to win. They aren’t feeling the love.
That augurs well for GOP House gains and for a GOP takeover of the Senate.
To pick a nit, Scalia is 76, not 78. But your point remains, and it is indeed huge.
Thanks Ravi. You and LS are awesome.
Thanks for posting this info. But the Iowa #s are still upsetting given the demographics of that state. How in Hades could that percentage of Iowans still throw in with Obama??!!
Thank you
Yes iowa is causing me to chew on my nails a little bit
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