Posted on 10/15/2012 7:03:40 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Let's put the latest iteration of the Washington Post/ABC poll in perspective. In an electoral model where Republican turnout drops 9 points in two years, and comes in 7 points lower than its generational nadir in 2008, then it's certainly probable that Barack Obama might edge Mitt Romney by three points. In fact, that may be the only way Obama could possibly win at this point:
On the eve of their second debate, President Obama and challenger Mitt Romney remain locked in a virtual dead heat nationally, with Republicans showing increased enthusiasm for their nominee after his big win in the first debate, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Likely voters in the new poll split 49 percent for Obama to 46 percent for Romney, basically unmoved from the poll two weeks ago, just before the two candidates met in Denver for their first debate. On topic after topic, the survey portrays an electorate that remains deeply divided along partisan lines and locked in its views. ...
But more people changed their views of Romney, largely in a positive direction. Overall, more than twice as many say their opinions of the former Massachusetts governor improved than say they worsened as a result of the debate. The strongest reaction is among Romney backers, 70 percent of whom say Denver made them think more highly of the GOP nominee.
The improvement in views of Romney carries directly into the underpinnings of his support: Fewer of his supporters now express anxiety about a Romney administration, and the number of his backers saying they support him “very enthusiastically” jumped by double digits. Among the likely voters supporting Romney, 62 percent now do so intensely, exactly double the number who were eagerly lined up behind Republican nominee John McCain at this stage in the campaign four years ago.
And yet, with all that enthusiasm on display, the partisan split among likely voters in this poll is a jaw-dropping D+9, 35/26/33. The D/R/I in 2008′s presidential election was a D+7 at 39/32/29, while the midterm was 35/35/30, Is there any reason to think that Democratic participation will be so off-the-charts huge that it will reduce Republican participation by nearly a third from the midterm elections, our most recent model of the electorate? No, as the Post’s own findings on enthusiasm show.
If you want to know how this election is heading, at least for the moment, take a look at the independent vote. Romney leads it by six points, 48/42, with just over three weeks to go. Obama won indies by eight in 2008, 52/44, on his way to a seven-point win overall. The only way Obama can be leading by three while suffering a fourteen-point reversal in the gap among indies is to have an overwhelming Democratic base turnout, which would have to be prompted by a huge enthusiasm gap favoring Democrats — which hasn’t turned up in any poll, including this one.
And even with the D+9 sample advantage, Obama’s lead is stuck within the margin of error, and he still can’t get to 50%. Even in an alternate universe, Obama’s in trouble.
Here we go. The MSM is ready for that “Obama comeback” narrative even if they have to lie and manipulate data to get it.
ABC? The most biased network on TV? And the Washington Post? A newspaper that isn’t covering the lies about the Benghazi slaughter? Oh yeah those groups are credible.../s
I told you all...IT’S COMING! That FAT evil liberal scum moderator is going to help Obumbler have an awesome debate...mark it! The BEAST was wounded and Ryan failed to drive a stake through him by letting SMIRKY get away with LIES!! Now I pray Romney will finish him off, but I doubt it because the odds are stack high against him at the townhall debate...the fix is in...read drudge. There is no way he will win that debate. Last week debate should have been a wake up call for the RNC...THE STUPID PARTY!! Romney should cancel the debate! UGH!!
So start mocking them.
To show how off basis polls are, in my home state of Missouri most maps show a toss-up or leaning Obama. Obama lost Missouri in 2008 and the state voted over 70% against Obama Care in 2010. THERE are no COMMERCIALS here at ALL- zero. No one believes Obama has a chance in Missouri except polls.
I do hope the town hall meeting is decisively for Romney. Otherwise, this “come back” narrative will get a little traction.....
Soon this is going to beyond their ability to spin.
Hence I expect the October Surprise at any moment.
Meaningless at a national level: only state-by-state matters
It’s laughable. Even the Dems thought Romney cleaned Obama’s clock in the debate and had to keep making excuses for him but they are then going to try to claim with a straight face that it didn’t move the needle at all? Rubbish.
Change your expectations. The media is going to say Obama won the debate even if he spends all night sucking on a pacifier. So don’t sweat it. Just realize that fewer people will watch this debate than the last one and 98% of the electorate has already made up their minds.
The only thing you need to worry about is if Romney gets stuck saying something awful or acts unpresidential. With all the GOP debates and this last one against Obama under his belt, I don’t see that happening. He hasn’t had a meltdown the whole time, even back when we were hoping for one.
People are going to see that the media is going to team up with Obama and will note the bias. It will anger us but it won’t tip the electorate. If anything, it will drive more of us to the polls to protest the unfairness.
Todays poll
O-49 R-46
Likely Voter Turnout D35/R26/I33
ABC’s last poll from end of Sept:
O-49 R-47
Likely Voter Turnout: D33/R30/I33
So Republicans have lost 4point of voters and democrats have gained 2 points since the 1st debate??
Using the same turnout model as ABC’s last poll this would result in a R-50 to O-47(more likely the current state of the race).
He is wrong. The polls are still rigged due to sampling errors of dems, repubs, and Independents.
I think what the polls are hiding the fact that Romney will roll over Obama in a blow out election. This effect will be carried down ticket also. The Demon-Rat Party is in trouble.
I love it when the enemamedia is SOOOO transparent.
Rats are supposed to vote in the same percentage while the Rs drop 9% and Is drop 3%? Hilarious stuff the LIARS are reduced to.
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