Posted on 10/13/2012 9:02:04 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too
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August 11, 2012
August 4, 2012
July 21, 2012
Premier - July 4, 2012
Here is the latest update of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.
The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and updates those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.
Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.
Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.
This Edition's Updates:
This time, we'll start in the Senate.
The Republican GOP Senate campaign has totally collapsed. Republicans were looking at a near certainty to take control of the Senate, and they are now back to just keeping their current number of seats plus one. This is shameful. Where is the Senate leadership on this? Where are McConnell and DeMint?
This is the latest run of my Rasmussen state-by-state Senate model.
The model begins with the final results of the last Class 1 election, and I will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.
Final 2010 Senate results were Republicans taking 47 seats, and Democrats caucusing 53 seats. My model begins with here.
As of now, the Senate looks to be a 52-48 Democrat hold, with a probability of 8.4% for Republicans taking over.
Since the last report, we had the two party conventions and the first round of candidate debates. And the Akin incident in Missouri. I wouldn't be surprised if the Republican leadership response to Todd Akin's rape comment led to the drop in support for all the GOP senator candidates. McConnell and DeMint better be very visible in the remaining weeks building back the GOP takeover of the Senate.
It's also time for Mitt Romney to roll out his coattails and start rallying for the Senate candidates that he needs to build a united Congress to work with. Without controlling the Senate, Romney will have a very hard time delivering on the promises he made, especially to repeal Obamacare.
See the probability chart at the following link to see how bad it has gotten. Link to Senate Probability Chart
Here is a run-down of what happened.
In Connecticut, a late August poll had Republican Linda McMahon leading Democrat Chris Murphy by +3% or 49%-46%. Now, Murphy is leading by 51%-46%, an 8-point GOP drop.
In Florida, a mid-August poll showed Republican Mack had already lost his July lead over Democrat Nelson, and was down by 7%. This week's poll shows that gap growing even more, with Nelson leading 52%-41%, an 11% lead. Is Florida a lost opportunity, or can Romeny help pull Mack back in front?
In Maine, the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Olympia Snowe is flipping to Democrats. Snowe last won the seat by 74%-20%. Republican candidate Charlie Summers is trailing Independent candidate Angus King by 45%-33%. The Democrat candidate Cynthia Dill has 14%. The discussion now is which party with King caucus with? He will probably side with Democrats when all is said and done.
In Massachusetts, Republican Scott Brown and Democrat Elizabeth Warren were tied at 48% in a late September poll, matching the 45% tie from a May poll. Now, Warren gained 1% while Brown lost 1%, giving Warren a 49%-47% lead. Can Massachusetts' former Governor Romney push Scott Brown back into the lead in his own state?
In Missouri, Lame Duck Democrat CLaire McCaskill is being handed back her Senate seat by weak, thin-skinned Republican leadership who failed to support fellow Republican Todd Akin, despite being caught in a gotcha interview. Republicans were leading 49%-43% in early Agust when Akin blundered in an interview and leadership fled for the hills. A late-August poll showed McCaskill back in the lead 48%-38%, a 16% swing. A mid-September poll showed some Akin rebound, closing the spread to McCaskill to 49%-43%. An early October poll has each candidate equally gaining 2%, keeping it a -6% spread at 51%-45% for McCaskill. At this point, Romney is keeping his distance although some Senate leadership is quietly supporting Akin.
In Nevada, a late July poll showed Republican Dean Heller leading Democrat Shelley Berkley by 51%-42%. Berkley had gained 2% from a May poll, while Heller remained at 51%. A late September poll had Heller falling 9% while Berkley held constant, closing the race to 42%-41% for Republicans. A new poll this week has Heller widening the gap as both candidates increase, making it 48%-45%, a +3% lead for Heller. Overall, Republicans lost 6% in this race over the summer, barely holding on.
In Ohio, the state had appeared to be moving towards Republicans. Josh Mandel gained 2% from the July poll, while incumbent Sherrod Brown lost 2%, making this race a 44% toss-up. However, by mid-September the lead evaporated and Brown gained from an 8% swing, making the race 49%-41% for Democrats. Mandel has regained his losses, closing the race to a -1% trail, or 47%-46% for Democrats.
In Virginia, an early August poll showed Republican Allen had picked up 1% from a July poll, while Democrat Kaine remained unchanged over three polls. The race was tied at 46%. Two weeks later, a re-poll in mid-August showed the raced still tied at 45% apiece, a -1% drop for each candidate. A late September poll showed Kaine beginning to pull away with a +2% gain of 47%-45%. Two weeks later, an early October poll showed a Kaine surge of an additional 5%, making it a solid 52%-45% for Democrats. One week later, the current poll shows the Kaine bump disappearing, bringing the race back to 47%-45% for Kaine. Allen remains stuck at 45%. Can Romney pull Allen ahead in the final weeks as he campaigns in Virginia?
In Wisconsin, the polls have been swinging back and forth. Republican Thompson went from 52% in June to 41% in early August and back to 54% in mid-August, while Democrat Baldwin went from 36% to 48% and down to 43%. A late July poll had Baldwin inching ahead again to 49%-46%, and the latest poll has her pulling away at 51%-47%. What is happening in this GOP revolution state? Romney needs to convince Wisconsin voters that he needs Thompson in the Senate in order to carry out his program as President.
Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or seat election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.
Watch List:
Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:
| Week | GOP Senate Seats P10 |
GOP Senate Seats EV |
GOP Senate Seats P90 |
Probability of 51 |
GOP Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 Election | 47 | 47 | 47 | 0.00% | 0 |
| 12-May-12 | 50 | 51.24 | 52 | 77.01% | 4 |
| 19-May-12 | 50 | 51.24 | 52 | 77.01% | 4 |
| 26-May-12 | 49 | 50.75 | 52 | 58.53% | 3 |
| 02-Jun-12 | 49 | 50.63 | 52 | 54.34% | 3 |
| 09-Jun-12 | 49 | 50.37 | 52 | 44.50% | 3 |
| 16-Jun-12 | 49 | 50.37 | 52 | 44.50% | 3 |
| 23-Jun-12 | 49 | 50.05 | 52 | 34.52% | 3 |
| 30-Jun-12 | 49 | 50.05 | 52 | 34.52% | 3 |
| 07-Jul-12 | 49 | 50.05 | 52 | 34.52% | 3 |
| 14-Jul-12 | 51 | 52.04 | 54 | 91.10% | 5 |
| 21-Jul-12 | 51 | 52.19 | 54 | 92.42% | 5 |
| 28-Jul-12 | 51 | 52.17 | 54 | 92.18% | 5 |
| 04-Aug-12 | 50 | 51.33 | 53 | 75.39% | 4 |
| 11-Aug-12 | 50 | 51.43 | 53 | 78.01% | 4 |
| 18-Aug-12 | 50 | 51.76 | 53 | 84.33% | 4 |
| 25-Aug-12 | 51 | 52.59 | 54 | 95.05% | 5 |
| 01-Sep-12 | 50 | 51.64 | 53 | 82.53% | 4 |
| 08-Sep-12 | 50 | 51.64 | 53 | 82.46% | 4 |
| 15-Sep-12 | 50 | 51.19 | 53 | 73.42% | 4 |
| 22-Sep-12 | 48 | 49.83 | 51 | 30.40% | 2 |
| 29-Sep-12 | 47 | 48.79 | 50 | 9.26% | 1 |
| 06-Oct-12 | 47 | 48.49 | 50 | 4.63% | 1 |
| 13-Oct-12 | 47 | 48.74 | 50 | 8.42% | 1 |
Link to Senate Probability Chart
The Race for the White House
Since the last report, Obama's Electoral College count has gone down to 253 Electoral Votes to Romney's growth to 245, with 37 EV up for grabs. If the election were held today, the race would be leaning to Obama. Probabilistically, Romney has a 28% chance of winning today.
In Colorado, the race was tied at 47% in Mid-August. A late-September poll showed Romney holding steady and Obama losing 2%. This week's poll has Romney gaining 2% and Obama gaining 3%, making the race a 49%-48% lead for Romney. Colorado remains a Toss-up.
In Connecticut, polling has finally taken place. A late-August poll has Obama leading Romney by 51%-43%. A poll this week has Romney gaining 2% and Obama holding at 51%. Connecticut is a Strong Obama state.
In Florida, Romney increased on his +2% lead, gaining another +2% in the most recent poll. Romney's 51%-47% lead moves Florida from Leans to Strong for Romney.
In Iowa, Romney lost his lead. He fell from a peak of 47%-44% in September to now running 49%-47% behind Obama. Iowa moves from Leans Romney to Leans Obama, and Iowa's 6 Electoral Votes move from Romney to Obama.
In Michigan, Romney was trailing by -6%. A late September poll had Obama way ahead at 54%-42%, but a poll this week shows Romney gaining and Obama slipping to a 52%-45% lead for Obama. Michigan remains a Strong state for Obama.
In Missouri, Romney was leading by +6% into August. A late August poll showed the state flipping to Obama 47%-46%, likely due to the Akin incident. By September, Romney had regained a 48%-45% lead, and October has Romney sustaining a +3% lead at 49%-46%. Missouri falls from Strong Romney to Leans Romney.
In Nevada, Romney was trailing by -5%. A late September poll had Obama losing 3% while Romney remained steady at 47%-45% Obama. A poll this week shows Romney gaining another 2% and bringining Nevada to a 47% tie. Nevada moves to Toss-Up and 6 Electoral Votes are taken away from Obama.
In New Hampshire, Romney was trailing by -5%. A late September poll had Romney pulling off an 8% swing, pulling into the lead at 48%-45%. Polling this week shows Obama gaining 3%, bringing the state to a 48% tie. New Hampshire moves from a Strong state for Obama to a Toss-up, and Obama loses 4 Electoral Votes.
In North Carolina, Obama has been chipping away at Romney's lead. A late September poll had Romney up by 51%-45%. This week, Romney's lead is 51%-48%. North Carolina moves from Strong to Leans Romney.
In Ohio, a mid-September poll shows Obama breaking the summer tie by 1%, inching to a 47%-46% lead. Two polls in October show the race remaining at -1% gap, settling into a 48%-47% Obama lead. Ohio remains a Toss-up.
In Pennsylvania, a 4% Obama lead over the summer became a 12% blowout in the late September poll. A poll this week brings the race back to a +5% lead for Obama at 51%-46%. Pennsylvania remains Strong for Obama.
In Virginia, Obama's success was short-lived. By late August, Virginia was tied again at 47%, costing Obama 13 Electoral College votes. A mid-September poll showed Obama gaining 2% to Romney's 1%, netting a 49%-48% lead for Obama. An early October poll had Romney gaining 1% and Obama losing 1%, and this week's poll has Obama losing another 1%, making the state now Romney's at 49%-47%. Virginia moves from Toss-up to Leans Romney and gives him 13 Electoral Votes.
In Wisconsin, the ground shifted again under Romney. A late-September poll flips the state back to an Obama lead with 49%-46%, and giving him Wisconsin's 10 Electoral College votes. This week's poll has Romney gaining 1%, closing the race to 51%-49% for Obama. Wisconsin Leans Obama.
Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or last election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.
Watch List:
Summary of Electoral College breakdown
| Obama - 260 | Romney - 238 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe | Strong | Leaning | Toss-Up | Leaning | Strong | Safe | |||||||
| EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State |
| 55 | California | 7 | Connecticut | 6 | Iowa | 9 | Colorado | 10 | Missouri | 29 | Florida | 9 | Alabama |
| 3 | District of Columbia | 16 | Michigan | 10 | Wisconsin | 4 | New Hampshire | 15 | North Carolina | 16 | Georgia | 3 | Alaska |
| 3 | Delaware | 20 | Pennsylvania | 18 | Ohio | 13 | Virginia | 11 | Arizona | ||||
| 4 | Hawaii | 6 | Nevada | 6 | Arkansas | ||||||||
| 20 | Illinois | 4 | Idaho | ||||||||||
| 4 | Maine | 11 | Indiana | ||||||||||
| 10 | Maryland | 6 | Kansas | ||||||||||
| 11 | Massachusetts | 8 | Kentucky | ||||||||||
| 10 | Minnesota | 8 | Louisiana | ||||||||||
| 14 | New Jersey | 6 | Mississippi | ||||||||||
| 5 | New Mexico | 3 | Montana | ||||||||||
| 29 | New York | 5 | Nebraska | ||||||||||
| 7 | Oregon | 3 | North Dakota | ||||||||||
| 4 | Rhode Island | 7 | Oklahoma | ||||||||||
| 3 | Vermont | 9 | South Carolina | ||||||||||
| 12 | Washington | 3 | South Dakota | ||||||||||
| 11 | Tennessee | ||||||||||||
| 38 | Texas | ||||||||||||
| 6 | Utah | ||||||||||||
| 5 | West Virginia | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Wyoming | ||||||||||||
| 194 | 43 | 16 | 37 | 38 | 45 | 162 | |||||||
2008 Final Results
Link to 2008 Final Election Map
Current State Leanings
Link to Current Electoral College Map
Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:
| Week | GOP Electoral College P10 |
GOP Electoral College EV |
GOP Electoral College P90 |
Probability of 270 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 Election | 180 | 180 | 180 | 0.00% |
| 12-May-12 | 193 | 220.73 | 248 | 0.16% |
| 19-May-12 | 197 | 225.09 | 248 | 0.23% |
| 26-May-12 | 206 | 232.72 | 256 | 1.21% |
| 02-Jun-12 | 216 | 242.46 | 266 | 4.43% |
| 09-Jun-12 | 221 | 247.73 | 275 | 14.02% |
| 16-Jun-12 | 230 | 257.37 | 282 | 28.95% |
| 23-Jun-12 | 231 | 257.92 | 282 | 30.10% |
| 30-Jun-12 | 225 | 254.58 | 282 | 24.61% |
| 07-Jul-12 | 225 | 254.58 | 282 | 24.61% |
| 14-Jul-12 | 225 | 254.58 | 282 | 24.61% |
| 21-Jul-12 | 219 | 248.33 | 276 | 16.46% |
| 28-Jul-12 | 215 | 244.1 | 272 | 11.78% |
| 04-Aug-12 | 216 | 245.64 | 273 | 12.75% |
| 11-Aug-12 | 215 | 245.24 | 273 | 12.05% |
| 18-Aug-12 | 225 | 255.61 | 282 | 25.11% |
| 25-Aug-12 | 223 | 252.39 | 281 | 21.52% |
| 01-Sep-12 | 223 | 252.39 | 281 | 22.08% |
| 08-Sep-12 | 224 | 252.45 | 281 | 21.66% |
| 15-Sep-12 | 221 | 249.88 | 278 | 17.54% |
| 22-Sep-12 | 225 | 252.98 | 278 | 20.34% |
| 29-Sep-12 | 225 | 252.04 | 277 | 19.04% |
| 06-Oct-12 | 225 | 253.31 | 279 | 21.00% |
| 13-Oct-12 | 233 | 258.74 | 283 | 27.69% |
The problem is the Senate. Even with a nominal Republican majority, it will still be a RINO-Crat majority. It will take one massive education of the public to get much farther any time within a Romney first term. Until then, Harry Reid will hold sway until we can put his thug crooked feet to the fire for his very profitable machinations.
I agree Flake needs to make a strong finish. Some of the ads have my husband now in the undecided category. Not for Carmona but Libertarian. By the way husband is a Conservative.
Brown is gonna run far ahead of Romney.
I'm a little worried but not panicked with this Senate picture.
Dems seem to think they'll lose only NE and gain ME (with King) MA, NV, IN, and maybe AZ. And they have the polling to back it up.
That's about as likely as GOP getting 60.
Rasmussen has some questionable results lately.
Turnout is the key here cause all these polls are weighted according to turnout models.
I'll have to check out the internals to see if the Democrat sample mix grew to show Obama doing better, but resulting in Republicans looking worse in the Senate.
-PJ
I heard Ras used better models (a mix of 04 and 08 turnout) than other firms so I’m surprised. Especially with Wisconsin.
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