Posted on 10/13/2012 9:02:04 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too
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August 11, 2012
August 4, 2012
July 21, 2012
Premier - July 4, 2012
Here is the latest update of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.
The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and updates those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.
Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.
Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.
This Edition's Updates:
This time, we'll start in the Senate.
The Republican GOP Senate campaign has totally collapsed. Republicans were looking at a near certainty to take control of the Senate, and they are now back to just keeping their current number of seats plus one. This is shameful. Where is the Senate leadership on this? Where are McConnell and DeMint?
This is the latest run of my Rasmussen state-by-state Senate model.
The model begins with the final results of the last Class 1 election, and I will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.
Final 2010 Senate results were Republicans taking 47 seats, and Democrats caucusing 53 seats. My model begins with here.
As of now, the Senate looks to be a 52-48 Democrat hold, with a probability of 8.4% for Republicans taking over.
Since the last report, we had the two party conventions and the first round of candidate debates. And the Akin incident in Missouri. I wouldn't be surprised if the Republican leadership response to Todd Akin's rape comment led to the drop in support for all the GOP senator candidates. McConnell and DeMint better be very visible in the remaining weeks building back the GOP takeover of the Senate.
It's also time for Mitt Romney to roll out his coattails and start rallying for the Senate candidates that he needs to build a united Congress to work with. Without controlling the Senate, Romney will have a very hard time delivering on the promises he made, especially to repeal Obamacare.
See the probability chart at the following link to see how bad it has gotten. Link to Senate Probability Chart
Here is a run-down of what happened.
In Connecticut, a late August poll had Republican Linda McMahon leading Democrat Chris Murphy by +3% or 49%-46%. Now, Murphy is leading by 51%-46%, an 8-point GOP drop.
In Florida, a mid-August poll showed Republican Mack had already lost his July lead over Democrat Nelson, and was down by 7%. This week's poll shows that gap growing even more, with Nelson leading 52%-41%, an 11% lead. Is Florida a lost opportunity, or can Romeny help pull Mack back in front?
In Maine, the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Olympia Snowe is flipping to Democrats. Snowe last won the seat by 74%-20%. Republican candidate Charlie Summers is trailing Independent candidate Angus King by 45%-33%. The Democrat candidate Cynthia Dill has 14%. The discussion now is which party with King caucus with? He will probably side with Democrats when all is said and done.
In Massachusetts, Republican Scott Brown and Democrat Elizabeth Warren were tied at 48% in a late September poll, matching the 45% tie from a May poll. Now, Warren gained 1% while Brown lost 1%, giving Warren a 49%-47% lead. Can Massachusetts' former Governor Romney push Scott Brown back into the lead in his own state?
In Missouri, Lame Duck Democrat CLaire McCaskill is being handed back her Senate seat by weak, thin-skinned Republican leadership who failed to support fellow Republican Todd Akin, despite being caught in a gotcha interview. Republicans were leading 49%-43% in early Agust when Akin blundered in an interview and leadership fled for the hills. A late-August poll showed McCaskill back in the lead 48%-38%, a 16% swing. A mid-September poll showed some Akin rebound, closing the spread to McCaskill to 49%-43%. An early October poll has each candidate equally gaining 2%, keeping it a -6% spread at 51%-45% for McCaskill. At this point, Romney is keeping his distance although some Senate leadership is quietly supporting Akin.
In Nevada, a late July poll showed Republican Dean Heller leading Democrat Shelley Berkley by 51%-42%. Berkley had gained 2% from a May poll, while Heller remained at 51%. A late September poll had Heller falling 9% while Berkley held constant, closing the race to 42%-41% for Republicans. A new poll this week has Heller widening the gap as both candidates increase, making it 48%-45%, a +3% lead for Heller. Overall, Republicans lost 6% in this race over the summer, barely holding on.
In Ohio, the state had appeared to be moving towards Republicans. Josh Mandel gained 2% from the July poll, while incumbent Sherrod Brown lost 2%, making this race a 44% toss-up. However, by mid-September the lead evaporated and Brown gained from an 8% swing, making the race 49%-41% for Democrats. Mandel has regained his losses, closing the race to a -1% trail, or 47%-46% for Democrats.
In Virginia, an early August poll showed Republican Allen had picked up 1% from a July poll, while Democrat Kaine remained unchanged over three polls. The race was tied at 46%. Two weeks later, a re-poll in mid-August showed the raced still tied at 45% apiece, a -1% drop for each candidate. A late September poll showed Kaine beginning to pull away with a +2% gain of 47%-45%. Two weeks later, an early October poll showed a Kaine surge of an additional 5%, making it a solid 52%-45% for Democrats. One week later, the current poll shows the Kaine bump disappearing, bringing the race back to 47%-45% for Kaine. Allen remains stuck at 45%. Can Romney pull Allen ahead in the final weeks as he campaigns in Virginia?
In Wisconsin, the polls have been swinging back and forth. Republican Thompson went from 52% in June to 41% in early August and back to 54% in mid-August, while Democrat Baldwin went from 36% to 48% and down to 43%. A late July poll had Baldwin inching ahead again to 49%-46%, and the latest poll has her pulling away at 51%-47%. What is happening in this GOP revolution state? Romney needs to convince Wisconsin voters that he needs Thompson in the Senate in order to carry out his program as President.
Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or seat election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.
Watch List:
Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:
Week | GOP Senate Seats P10 |
GOP Senate Seats EV |
GOP Senate Seats P90 |
Probability of 51 |
GOP Gain |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2010 Election | 47 | 47 | 47 | 0.00% | 0 |
12-May-12 | 50 | 51.24 | 52 | 77.01% | 4 |
19-May-12 | 50 | 51.24 | 52 | 77.01% | 4 |
26-May-12 | 49 | 50.75 | 52 | 58.53% | 3 |
02-Jun-12 | 49 | 50.63 | 52 | 54.34% | 3 |
09-Jun-12 | 49 | 50.37 | 52 | 44.50% | 3 |
16-Jun-12 | 49 | 50.37 | 52 | 44.50% | 3 |
23-Jun-12 | 49 | 50.05 | 52 | 34.52% | 3 |
30-Jun-12 | 49 | 50.05 | 52 | 34.52% | 3 |
07-Jul-12 | 49 | 50.05 | 52 | 34.52% | 3 |
14-Jul-12 | 51 | 52.04 | 54 | 91.10% | 5 |
21-Jul-12 | 51 | 52.19 | 54 | 92.42% | 5 |
28-Jul-12 | 51 | 52.17 | 54 | 92.18% | 5 |
04-Aug-12 | 50 | 51.33 | 53 | 75.39% | 4 |
11-Aug-12 | 50 | 51.43 | 53 | 78.01% | 4 |
18-Aug-12 | 50 | 51.76 | 53 | 84.33% | 4 |
25-Aug-12 | 51 | 52.59 | 54 | 95.05% | 5 |
01-Sep-12 | 50 | 51.64 | 53 | 82.53% | 4 |
08-Sep-12 | 50 | 51.64 | 53 | 82.46% | 4 |
15-Sep-12 | 50 | 51.19 | 53 | 73.42% | 4 |
22-Sep-12 | 48 | 49.83 | 51 | 30.40% | 2 |
29-Sep-12 | 47 | 48.79 | 50 | 9.26% | 1 |
06-Oct-12 | 47 | 48.49 | 50 | 4.63% | 1 |
13-Oct-12 | 47 | 48.74 | 50 | 8.42% | 1 |
Link to Senate Probability Chart
The Race for the White House
Since the last report, Obama's Electoral College count has gone down to 253 Electoral Votes to Romney's growth to 245, with 37 EV up for grabs. If the election were held today, the race would be leaning to Obama. Probabilistically, Romney has a 28% chance of winning today.
In Colorado, the race was tied at 47% in Mid-August. A late-September poll showed Romney holding steady and Obama losing 2%. This week's poll has Romney gaining 2% and Obama gaining 3%, making the race a 49%-48% lead for Romney. Colorado remains a Toss-up.
In Connecticut, polling has finally taken place. A late-August poll has Obama leading Romney by 51%-43%. A poll this week has Romney gaining 2% and Obama holding at 51%. Connecticut is a Strong Obama state.
In Florida, Romney increased on his +2% lead, gaining another +2% in the most recent poll. Romney's 51%-47% lead moves Florida from Leans to Strong for Romney.
In Iowa, Romney lost his lead. He fell from a peak of 47%-44% in September to now running 49%-47% behind Obama. Iowa moves from Leans Romney to Leans Obama, and Iowa's 6 Electoral Votes move from Romney to Obama.
In Michigan, Romney was trailing by -6%. A late September poll had Obama way ahead at 54%-42%, but a poll this week shows Romney gaining and Obama slipping to a 52%-45% lead for Obama. Michigan remains a Strong state for Obama.
In Missouri, Romney was leading by +6% into August. A late August poll showed the state flipping to Obama 47%-46%, likely due to the Akin incident. By September, Romney had regained a 48%-45% lead, and October has Romney sustaining a +3% lead at 49%-46%. Missouri falls from Strong Romney to Leans Romney.
In Nevada, Romney was trailing by -5%. A late September poll had Obama losing 3% while Romney remained steady at 47%-45% Obama. A poll this week shows Romney gaining another 2% and bringining Nevada to a 47% tie. Nevada moves to Toss-Up and 6 Electoral Votes are taken away from Obama.
In New Hampshire, Romney was trailing by -5%. A late September poll had Romney pulling off an 8% swing, pulling into the lead at 48%-45%. Polling this week shows Obama gaining 3%, bringing the state to a 48% tie. New Hampshire moves from a Strong state for Obama to a Toss-up, and Obama loses 4 Electoral Votes.
In North Carolina, Obama has been chipping away at Romney's lead. A late September poll had Romney up by 51%-45%. This week, Romney's lead is 51%-48%. North Carolina moves from Strong to Leans Romney.
In Ohio, a mid-September poll shows Obama breaking the summer tie by 1%, inching to a 47%-46% lead. Two polls in October show the race remaining at -1% gap, settling into a 48%-47% Obama lead. Ohio remains a Toss-up.
In Pennsylvania, a 4% Obama lead over the summer became a 12% blowout in the late September poll. A poll this week brings the race back to a +5% lead for Obama at 51%-46%. Pennsylvania remains Strong for Obama.
In Virginia, Obama's success was short-lived. By late August, Virginia was tied again at 47%, costing Obama 13 Electoral College votes. A mid-September poll showed Obama gaining 2% to Romney's 1%, netting a 49%-48% lead for Obama. An early October poll had Romney gaining 1% and Obama losing 1%, and this week's poll has Obama losing another 1%, making the state now Romney's at 49%-47%. Virginia moves from Toss-up to Leans Romney and gives him 13 Electoral Votes.
In Wisconsin, the ground shifted again under Romney. A late-September poll flips the state back to an Obama lead with 49%-46%, and giving him Wisconsin's 10 Electoral College votes. This week's poll has Romney gaining 1%, closing the race to 51%-49% for Obama. Wisconsin Leans Obama.
Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or last election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.
Watch List:
Summary of Electoral College breakdown
Obama - 260 | Romney - 238 | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Safe | Strong | Leaning | Toss-Up | Leaning | Strong | Safe | |||||||
EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State |
55 | California | 7 | Connecticut | 6 | Iowa | 9 | Colorado | 10 | Missouri | 29 | Florida | 9 | Alabama |
3 | District of Columbia | 16 | Michigan | 10 | Wisconsin | 4 | New Hampshire | 15 | North Carolina | 16 | Georgia | 3 | Alaska |
3 | Delaware | 20 | Pennsylvania | 18 | Ohio | 13 | Virginia | 11 | Arizona | ||||
4 | Hawaii | 6 | Nevada | 6 | Arkansas | ||||||||
20 | Illinois | 4 | Idaho | ||||||||||
4 | Maine | 11 | Indiana | ||||||||||
10 | Maryland | 6 | Kansas | ||||||||||
11 | Massachusetts | 8 | Kentucky | ||||||||||
10 | Minnesota | 8 | Louisiana | ||||||||||
14 | New Jersey | 6 | Mississippi | ||||||||||
5 | New Mexico | 3 | Montana | ||||||||||
29 | New York | 5 | Nebraska | ||||||||||
7 | Oregon | 3 | North Dakota | ||||||||||
4 | Rhode Island | 7 | Oklahoma | ||||||||||
3 | Vermont | 9 | South Carolina | ||||||||||
12 | Washington | 3 | South Dakota | ||||||||||
11 | Tennessee | ||||||||||||
38 | Texas | ||||||||||||
6 | Utah | ||||||||||||
5 | West Virginia | ||||||||||||
3 | Wyoming | ||||||||||||
194 | 43 | 16 | 37 | 38 | 45 | 162 | |||||||
2008 Final Results
Link to 2008 Final Election Map
Current State Leanings
Link to Current Electoral College Map
Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:
Week | GOP Electoral College P10 |
GOP Electoral College EV |
GOP Electoral College P90 |
Probability of 270 |
---|---|---|---|---|
2008 Election | 180 | 180 | 180 | 0.00% |
12-May-12 | 193 | 220.73 | 248 | 0.16% |
19-May-12 | 197 | 225.09 | 248 | 0.23% |
26-May-12 | 206 | 232.72 | 256 | 1.21% |
02-Jun-12 | 216 | 242.46 | 266 | 4.43% |
09-Jun-12 | 221 | 247.73 | 275 | 14.02% |
16-Jun-12 | 230 | 257.37 | 282 | 28.95% |
23-Jun-12 | 231 | 257.92 | 282 | 30.10% |
30-Jun-12 | 225 | 254.58 | 282 | 24.61% |
07-Jul-12 | 225 | 254.58 | 282 | 24.61% |
14-Jul-12 | 225 | 254.58 | 282 | 24.61% |
21-Jul-12 | 219 | 248.33 | 276 | 16.46% |
28-Jul-12 | 215 | 244.1 | 272 | 11.78% |
04-Aug-12 | 216 | 245.64 | 273 | 12.75% |
11-Aug-12 | 215 | 245.24 | 273 | 12.05% |
18-Aug-12 | 225 | 255.61 | 282 | 25.11% |
25-Aug-12 | 223 | 252.39 | 281 | 21.52% |
01-Sep-12 | 223 | 252.39 | 281 | 22.08% |
08-Sep-12 | 224 | 252.45 | 281 | 21.66% |
15-Sep-12 | 221 | 249.88 | 278 | 17.54% |
22-Sep-12 | 225 | 252.98 | 278 | 20.34% |
29-Sep-12 | 225 | 252.04 | 277 | 19.04% |
06-Oct-12 | 225 | 253.31 | 279 | 21.00% |
13-Oct-12 | 233 | 258.74 | 283 | 27.69% |
Here's the corrected chart.
Obama - 253 | Romney - 245 | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Safe | Strong | Leaning | Toss-Up | Leaning | Strong | Safe | |||||||
EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State |
55 | California | 7 | Connecticut | 6 | Iowa | 9 | Colorado | 10 | Missouri | 29 | Florida | 9 | Alabama |
3 | District of Columbia | 16 | Michigan | 10 | Wisconsin | 4 | New Hampshire | 15 | North Carolina | 16 | Georgia | 3 | Alaska |
3 | Delaware | 20 | Pennsylvania | 18 | Ohio | 13 | Virginia | 11 | Arizona | ||||
4 | Hawaii | 6 | Nevada | 6 | Arkansas | ||||||||
20 | Illinois | 4 | Idaho | ||||||||||
4 | Maine | 11 | Indiana | ||||||||||
10 | Maryland | 6 | Kansas | ||||||||||
11 | Massachusetts | 8 | Kentucky | ||||||||||
10 | Minnesota | 8 | Louisiana | ||||||||||
14 | New Jersey | 6 | Mississippi | ||||||||||
5 | New Mexico | 3 | Montana | ||||||||||
29 | New York | 5 | Nebraska | ||||||||||
7 | Oregon | 3 | North Dakota | ||||||||||
4 | Rhode Island | 7 | Oklahoma | ||||||||||
3 | Vermont | 9 | South Carolina | ||||||||||
12 | Washington | 3 | South Dakota | ||||||||||
11 | Tennessee | ||||||||||||
38 | Texas | ||||||||||||
6 | Utah | ||||||||||||
5 | West Virginia | ||||||||||||
3 | Wyoming | ||||||||||||
194 | 43 | 16 | 37 | 38 | 45 | 162 | |||||||
-PJ
I don't think anyone is playing from a coordinated plan.
-PJ
I think the last 10 days have been seismic given the performance of the debates. The momentum is with Romney and there is a growing likelihood that he will win big in November. There is a growing likelihood that he will have coat tails too. I think many of these seats are in play and the dems are very nervous. If Romney wins big in November, there will be dem casualties in the Senate.
And what about Senate races Montana & North Dakota?
“I wish I saw more team-building from Romney,..”
Romney isn’t politically savvy. You will not see it now, nor in the future.
For example, he should have reached out to Sarah Palin, and did not. That was a really dumb, f..k, stupid mistake! He did everything possible to exclude her from the Tampa Convention. That screams “political ineptitude’.
His team is rotten when it comes to basic potlical moves, too. They should have been all over McConnell to get with the program vis a vis the Senate. Sheesh!
Let this be a heads up to what we can expect from a Romney White House in the next four-years.
Ras is using a +3-5 turnout model currently isn’t he?
If so his numbers are tilted to the dems.
MO was a big blow as that was a sure thing, but we will hopefully still get that one. Several candidates are not performing as well as expected, like Rick Berg, Tommy Thompson, George Allen, and Connie Mack. Romney may have to drag them over the finish line. But some are doing better than expected, like Linda McMahon, Josh Mandel, and Tom Smith. To his credit, Scott Brown is in good shape to beat Fauxahontas.
Note the differentiation between the seats that represent GOP Holds and those that represent opportunities for Gains. Democrats currently control 53 seats in the Senate (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats), Republicans 47. If Republicans hold all the seats they have currently, they will need to gain four more seats to have a majority.
Links to GOP primary winners' websites are included so you can learn more about the candidates and donate, if you feel so inclined.
If you're interested in all polling on Senate races, check out Real Clear Politics Senate Polls.
It's widely thought that the GOP will keep the House, so besides the battle for the White House, the next focus is the Senate.
10/13/12 Race for the U.S. Senate Ranked Roughly From Most to Least Likely GOP Win | |||
---|---|---|---|
State |
Republican Candidate | Democrat/IND Candidate | Hold OR Gain |
NE* | Debra Fischer | Bob Kerrey | GAIN |
AZ* | Jeff Flake | Richard Carmona | HOLD |
IN* | Richard Mourdock | Joe Donnelly | HOLD |
WI* | Tommy Thompson | Tammy Baldwin | GAIN |
NV | Dean Heller+ | Shelley Berkley | HOLD |
ND* | Rick Berg | Heidi Heitcamp | GAIN |
MT | Denny Rehberg | Jon Tester | GAIN |
MA | Scott Brown+ | Elizabeth Warren | HOLD |
VA* | George Allen | Tim Kaine | GAIN |
OH | Josh Mandel | Sherrod Brown+ | GAIN |
FL | Connie Mack | Bill Nelson+ | GAIN |
MO | Todd Akin | Claire McCaskill+ | GAIN |
MI | Pete Hoekstra | Debbie Stabenow+ | GAIN |
CT* | Linda McMahon | Chris Murphy | GAIN |
PA | Tom Smith | Bob Casey+ | GAIN |
NM* | Heather Wilson | Martin Heinrich | GAIN |
NJ | Joe Kyrillos | Bob Menendez+ | GAIN |
HI* | Linda Lingle | Mazie Hirono | GAIN |
ME* | Charles Summers | Angus King (Ind.) | HOLD |
WV | John Raese | Joe Manchin+ | GAIN |
WA | Michael Baumgartner | Maria Cantwell+ | GAIN |
*Open Seat +Incumbent |
I doubt there will be a whole lot of ballot splitting in this race this year. The Senate will most likely go to whoever wins the President.
I think you may be right, but I wouldn't bet the future of the country on that assumption.
I think it would be interesting to discover how many voters split their ballot just as a matter of principle, in the interest of maintaining either a viable checks and balances condition, or just hoping for gridlock.
With all due respect, while I completely agree that the momentum is with Romney, I see zero evidence that he is going to win big.
There is foolish talk of a LANDSLIDE (sic) on this board, without anything but hope to back it up. There are no polls that show Romney cruising towards a landslide, just polls that show him pulling ahead slightly in some key states, while still running neck and neck in others.
The national popular vote also does not support the landslide meme.
I am afraid if we keep talking of a landslide, we may be in for a huge disappointment next month...
Romney just doesn't need the Senate, he needs 60. If we still have Reid, the Romney Administration will go no where fast, and we get our @$$es kicked in 14' setting up a cycle for Hilda' in 2016.
Yes he needs to be on the stump with these people and do Commericals. I am sorry I am so frustrated here in Michigan, he is gonna have to drag Hoekstra's behind across the finish line and that drives me nuts....
What polling is this based upon - the polls with dems over-sampled, or not?
R’s will gain Ben Nelson’s seat.
Right now gridlock would hurt us. To get any semblance of our country back we’ve got to UNDO the past 4 years. Gridlock at this point means that Obama’s “fundamental change” stays in place.
I hope people are being smart and thinking about what really needs to happen to get Constitutional rule again. When we had gridlock in Congress, we just had Obama go OVER both Congress and the judiciary. To set things right and prevent that from happening again we need to address how it could happen in the first place - and that will require a strong majority.
Is the Republican party effectively dead? In my state of California it has totally lost all elected offices-with the exception of a few state senators and assemblymen. The loss is strictly occasioned by a coalition Latins, Asiatics, blacks, Gays, and non-christians. They are all united in their hatred contempt for the former WASP leadership.
Is the Republican party effectively dead? In my state of California it has totally lost all elected offices-with the exception of a few state senators and assemblymen. The loss is strictly occasioned by a coalition Latins, Asiatics, blacks, Gays, and non-christians. They are all united in their hatred and contempt for the former WASP leadership.
I couldn't agree more. I have argued from the beginning that keeping the House and winning the Senate are way more important than winning the White House. It is the only way to begin to put the executive branch in check.
Montana (Rehberg) is polling at 47%-43% from late August.
I didn't call these states out because they aren't gains that flipped to losses.
-PJ
The problem with that idea is that the “it” being tweaked still entails a Federal bureaucracy exercising unconstitutional powers... with all due deference to the Justice Roberts’ august opinion of course (IOW, none).
I still hold out some hope. The Carter ‘luxury tax’ that ended up punishing yacht builders and the rats medicare increases that almost got Rostenkowski ambushed come to mind. They both were reversed by the congress pronto.
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