Posted on 10/13/2012 7:54:55 PM PDT by tricky_k_1972
Why Joe Walsh Might Win the 8th
It ispossible that Rep. Joe Walsh, Tea Party-Ill., will hold on to his seat.
A poll conducted this week by We Ask America has him leading challenger Tammy Duckworth, 47.8 percent to 45.1 percent. (The previous poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling in late September, had Duckworth ahead, 52-38.)
This is not supposed to happen. House Speaker Michael Madigan drew this seat not just for a Democrat, but specifically for Duckworth. One of the reasons Duckworth lost to Peter Roskam in 2006 was that she didn't live in the district, and was unwilling to move, because her house had been modified to accommodate her disability. The house is in the new 8th District. After that defeat, Gov. Rod Blagojevich and President Obama helped her build a resume. Blagojevich appointed Duckworth head of the Illinois Department of Veterans Affairs. Obama named her Assistant Secretary for Veterans Affairs.
With the help of her mentors, Sen. Dick Durbin and Rep. Rahm Emanuel, Duckworth has raised five times as much money as Walsh. Walsh also helped Duckworth raise money by saying she wasn't a “true hero” because she bragged about her military service. Duckworth was given a prime-time speaking spot at the Democratic National Convention, where delegates were in tears as she talked her rescue from the wreckage of a Black Hawk helicopter.
So how can Duckworth possibly lose? Well, maybe for all of the above reasons. Walsh’s party wants nothing to do with him. The congressman skipped the Republican National Convention, and the National Republican Campaign Committee announced in September it would stop buying TV ads for him. But that lack of support has played into Walsh’s argument that he’s an independent, while Duckworth is a partisan D.C. Democrat. Even though he’s the insider, he’s running as the outsider. Walsh has declared that he’s a Tea Partier before he’s a Republican. In their first debate, he came off as fiscally responsible, while she looked like an advocate for liberal special interests. Because he has no support from national Republicans, Walsh has done all his campaigning inside the district, while Duckworth flew to Charlotte and made a speech at a college in California. In a congressional election, face-to-face campaigning can be everything.
Duckworth’s numbers may also have been hurt by President Obama’s lousy debate performance. It turned independents toward Romney, and the suburbs are full of independents.
Walsh is a shameless, sexist, racist, creedist, colorist, national originist political bully who will do and say anything to win. He poked Duckworth during their sit-down debate and criticized her for spending too much time picking out a dress to wear to the convention. (Those gals take forever to get dressed. Huh, huh, huh.) Maybe Duckworth needs to stop campaigning as the reasonable, responsible candidate, and start calling Walsh a deadbeat dad. You know what happens to politicians who’ll do anything to win? They win. And do you know what happens to two-time political losers? They never run again.
Frank Wolf, the wonderful guy who has now served 16 terms in the House, lost in 1976 and 1978 before being swept into office in 1980, beating out incumbent “Pink Joe” Fisher. I was a precinct captain in Arlington, which at that time was part of Virginia’s 10th District, Frank’s district.
I can think of a couple of Democrats who were “third time lucky”, both in the South Bend, Indiana area. John Brademas took three elections to finally win (in the ‘Rat year of 1958) and Joe Donnelly took three elections before he finally knocked off “Count Chocula” Chris Chocola in the ‘Rat year of 2006.
I think Joe Walsh himself was a "third time's the charm" guy when he won in 2010 after losing two previous races (it was for different offices though). He also had run as a more "moderate" Republican in his past campaigns. Many of us backed Maria Rodriquez over Walsh in the primary for that reason. I must admit he's FAR exceeded my expectations though.
>> I can think of a couple of Democrats who were “third time lucky”, both in the South Bend, Indiana area. John Brademas took three elections to finally win (in the ‘Rat year of 1958) and Joe Donnelly took three elections before he finally knocked off “Count Chocula” Chris Chocola in the ‘Rat year of 2006. <<
>>> Democrat Collin Peterson in MN ran four times (1984/86/88/90) before he finally beat the GOP incumbent (though he was the nominee three times -- the DFL thought he was a has-been on his 3rd run in '88 and defeated him in the primary. Ditto Ted Strickland in OH, who was a perennial candidate by 1992 (having lost in 1976, 1978 and 1980). He was technically a "fluke" winner in '92 because of an ugly internecine battle between two GOP incumbents when their districts were merged (and he lost again in 1994, only to narrowly come back in 1996 and go on to win the Governorship). <<
::shudders:: You guys are giving me nightmares that we'll NEVER be rid of Ducky, even if she is loses again in a now RAT majority district. Rahm might run her for some SUPER moonbat district and give his hand-picked sock puppet the nomination for Schakowsky's district after she retires (Ducky CAN'T lose that district... can she?)
One RAT I wish would run a fourth time is Obama wannabe Dan Seals. The only reason he was "competitive" in Kirk's district in the first place was the big Dem turnout in 2006 and 2008. The RATs need to run this douchebag loser for some statewide office so the pathetic IL GOP will win it even if they have a lousy candidate.
>> Rep. Walsh will easily win. All of the voters, in the new 8th Dist., have a republican congressman, Walsh, Dold, Roskam, or Hultgren. The majority of those voters have a republican state senator, Pankau, Murphy, or Dillard. <<
Interesting. I read somewhere that the overall voting pattern of the new 8th is about 52% Democrat, strange that they managed to cobble it together from existing pieces of other GOP districts. They must have taken the Democrat areas, since I read the new IL-6, Roskam's district, is now super Republican (the RATs claim they're going to win it anyway) I would have assumed the RATs "borrowed" neighborhoods from safe RAT districts and gave a big chunk of Quigley's Chicago machine constituents to Walsh's district or something.
Joe D did not face Chocola in 2002, only 2004 and 2006. In 02’ Choc faced former rat Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson for the open seat being vacated by Tim Roemer. Chocola himself had lost to Roemer in 2000.
Let’s not talk about Hill and Sodrel. Indiana seems to have a thing for rematches.
Whatever happened to Baron Hill?
Sure don’t miss his snarky face on campaign adverts.
Phil you are the only person I know of who thinks Walsh will win “easily”. The guy is damaged, being outspent, and barley won in first place in a better district.
I hope one of those state Senators not named Dillard runs against Suckworth in 2014 when she will probably be the most vulnerable freshman rats.
The slight saving Grace here is the seat is still GOP-leaning but with a rat trend.
Using close enough estimation we can get the real partisan lean of these new IL seats tossing out the absurdly large Obama victories.
IL-8 would be 51% Bush in 2004.
IL-10 (Dold) just 45% Bush, as has been mentioned
IL-11 (Biggert) 47%
IL-17 (Schilling) Just 44%
Biggert has the best chance to win out of the 4.
I hope I’m wrong and you are right.
Talk of these retreads winning has me worried about the IL-13th’s rat David Gill. IL 13th Comfortable 53% Bush estimate.
Different estimates from some democrat on the Dave Leip board http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=158333.0
They have the 8th 50-48 Kerry, and the 13th 50-47 Bush.
With new GOP territory the third CD is tantalizing (or would be against a moonbat dem not Lipinscki) but likely ought of reach thanks to the CHI machine.
I’d love to see Rahm’s sock puppet lose.
He’s a lobbyist now like most ex-Congressman.
Thanks.
And here he is, just for old times’ sake
His firm’s #1 client BTW is COSCO, a shipping company owned by the Red Chinese government.
I don’t think that Bush got more than 48% in 2004 in the redrawn IL-08. The old IL-08 gave Bush 56% in 2004 and gave McCain 43% in 2008, while the old IL-10 (a large part of which went into the new IL-08) gave the R 47% and 38%, respectively), so if we assume that the Bush 2004 percentage was 11% higher than the McCain 2008 percentage (11% is the average between the 13% and 9% drops in the R percentages in the IL-08 and IL-10), and given that the McCain 2008 percentage in the new IL-08 was 37%, then I estimate that the Bush 2004 percentage would have been 48% under the new lines. I hope I’m wrong and it’s closer to 50%, but even at 48% it would be an eminently winnable district for a good Republican candidate.
Walsh is the kind of notorious that wins. He beat M3elissa Bean by insisting on saying the Pledge of Allegiance to the absolute anger of a Plague of Women Vipers debate "moderator." That made Bean history. I suspect that he will dispatch Duckworth more easily since she is a second rate candidate for office who understands neither the words nor the music of politics.
I don't ike Dold but I would not bet on his defeat and, of course, the Demonrats have chosen a leftist loon to run against him.
Biggert is the kind of "moderate" "Republican" who is very hard to erase and will probably join cockroaches in inheriting the earth after we are nuked by Iran.
Republicans win the two downstate districts that are open seats.
Today's news reports are that Illinois registration is now closed and that 2012 registration is 7.5 % lower than in 2008. Since the Illinois is a totally comatose and incompetent subsidiary of the Chicago Demonrat Machine and is led by social revolutionaries and other manifest issue averse birdbrains, we can rely on that decrease being a substantial lack of Demonrat enthusiasm compared to 2008. Obozo will certainly win Illinois but his reduced margin guarantees Demonrat frustration on the Congressional races despite the best efforts of Boss Madigan and his minions ion Madiganistan.
Need I add that Monday's POTUS debate on foreign policy won't help the Demonrats either. Personally, I would not touch Romney or Obozo with someone else's ten foot pole but some realism is in order as to the fact that Obozo will have no coattails that are not negative coattails.
Tom Hoefling for POTUS!
Not true here in the People's Socialist RepuliK of Illannoyed. They just run for the next higher office.
Here in IL, all our congressional districts were re-drawn after the 2010 elections thanks to the Democrats controlling the IL House *again.* They purposely re-drew 5 districts in an attempt to un-seat Republicans, to try and re-gain the 5 House seats the Democrats LOST in 2010.
In all but ONE of those re-drawn districts designed to un-seat the Republican incumbent, the Republican is WINNING.
Walsh is the only one in danger to losing, to two-time loser herself, Tammy Duckworth.
The problem with Tammy Duckworth is, she took a political job from now convicted felon Rod Blagojevich, and Duckworth is accused of mis-appropriating MILLIONS of taxpayer dollars while she held that position.
Hopefully Duckworth loses AGAIN.
I live in the current 8th Dist. and in the new 10th Dist. I think that Dold will easily win, since the majority of state legislators and county commissioners, in the new 10th Dist., are Republicans.
Is Tom a write-in candidate in Illinois?
Walsh is telling people that businesses are going to cut jobs if Obama is elected......Excellent. It’s the truth. I’m going to help him Saturday morning in Schaumburg.
I have not voted yet so I am not sure. Someone gave me the impression that it was county by county as to whether enough signatures were filed but that seems senseless. I am pinging Tom to tell us his status here.
That #32 should read that the Illinois *GOP* is comatose, etc.
I filed as a write-in candidate in 110 jurisdictions in IL. Two had problems with mail delivery.
So, yes, I’m a registered candidate in 108 jurisdictions.
I’m sorry, but I don’t remember what the two bad filings were, and I don’t have them where I am this evening. If in doubt, you can check with your county.
By the way, we’re just finishing up all the filings across the country, and it looks like voters representing exactly 400 of the 538 electors will be able to vote for our ticket. That’s right at 75%.
I don’t think that’s too bad considering that it was an entirely grassroots effort.
FYI, my running mate is Jonathan Ellis of Tennessee. He filed in all jurisdictions as well. He’s a good man. You won’t find a more solid conservative in the land.
Have you endorsed any candidates in other Illinois races? I’m a write-in candidate, in the 7th Congressional Dist., where the incumbent is Rep. Danny Davis. I support cutting federal tax rates and federal spending. I’m pro-life, and I think that ICE should deport more illegal aliens.
Thanks for your willingness to be in the arena.
We need thousands of principled patriots to have the courage to do that in the years ahead.
Have you seen our Leadership Pledge?
http://www.selfgovernment.us/be-a-leader.html
Check it out, if would, please.
You can reach me at tomhoefling@gmail.com if you have any questions.
God bless and God speed.
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