Posted on 10/13/2012 2:51:31 PM PDT by oblomov
An analysis by a savvy demographer points to the states Romney is likely to take—and why he's on the path to victory. Sizing up population growth in key GOP states.
The presidential race has grown closer since Mitt Romney and Barack Obama squared off in the first of three debates, with the Republican challenger edging ahead in the polls in several key states. But Romney never was the underdog depicted by the mainstream press, and Obama's path to victory is much steeper than his campaign team appreciates; they've long felt they have it in the bag.
Former GOP demographer John Morgan Sr. says Obama's biggest problem is that the national temperament leans Republican, as evidenced by the 2010 midterm elections, where Republican victories were both widespread and deep. The party not only captured the U.S. House of Representatives, it also scored big victories at the state-government level, even in places like Pennsylvania that are perceived as predictably Democratic.
Political scientists generally discount the predictive power of midterms—and with good reason—but this time may be different. Turnout for these contests generally is short of its potential by 30% to 40%, which is too low to be reflective of the nation's mood, the argument goes. And a party that is out of power typically scores gains in a midterm because its adherents are frustrated, angry, and consequently more energized than the incumbent party. This was true in 2006 when Democrats took back Congress from the GOP. In 2010, a backlash against Obamacare by Republicans certainly was the biggest factor in their rout of the Democrats.
But Morgan reasons that the 2010 election was not your run-of-the-mill midterm. "It was historic," he says, comparing it to epic GOP victories in 1894 and 1924.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.barrons.com ...
link is subscription only
I have worked with John Morgan. He is one of the shrewdest political demographers to ever come down the pike.
I did a word search. No “Palin.” Invalid article.
Re: population growth in red states: thanks, Dems for screwing up your states so bad you are on the road to single digit EV counts. It was almost worth the influx of lefties. Almost.
Why did you post the whole thing? We should go to the source. They did the work, they deserve the credit for it.
Here’s the link to the article.
Select a key phrase and Google it.
“Former GOP demographer John Morgan Sr. says Obama’s biggest problem”
Works for me.
The link said for subscribers only, that’s why
It was in print mode, all you had to do was google it. Besides, that doesn’t make it any better.
I was just trying to help, no reason to get testy - besides I don’t use Google (for good reason).
By the way, welcome to FreeRepublic, FRiend
I want to give credit to Kevin DuJan of hillbuzz.org who has been working non-stop to get Obama out of office.
Agreed. Also the author got it wrong regarding historical GOP elections. It was 1920 that the GOP got 62 House seats and 10 Senate seats in the Harding landslide, not 1924.
What’s Palin got to do with any of this?
Apparently nothing, huh?
Some FReepers continuously have their panties in a bind. LOL!!
thanks for posting the whole article.
The very critical point being overlooked here is that the country has always leaned Republican, if you consider that to mean the values espoused by the GOP. The “Silent Majority” has always been there.
The only way that the Democrats have ever won the majority of votes is because the Republican “leadership” has “mis(mal)managed” power when they had it.
Have you not felt the frustration of knowing that any competent high-school student could hand the Democrats their lunch at any given point in time.
THERE IS NO POSSIBLE WAY THAT WE COULD BE IN THE DEPLORABLE STATE THAT WE FIND OURSELVES IN, RIGHT NOW, WITHOUT THE CONNIVANCE OF BOTH PARTIES.
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