How Likely Is an Electoral Vote/Popular Vote Split?

RCP ^ | 10/12/2012 | Sean Trende

[SeekAndFind]

Right now, Romney leads by 0.7 points in the RCP Average. At the same time, the tally in the RCP Average of electoral votes looks something like this:

So winning the McCain states, plus Indiana, plus Nebraska’s 2nd District gives Romney 191 electoral votes. Adding the next-closest state (North Carolina) gets him to 206 electoral votes. And so forth.

Even though Romney is winning in the popular vote right now by 0.7 points (as of this writing), he trails in the state presently containing electoral vote number 270 by 1.3 points. In other words, as of Thursday afternoon the RCP Average suggests that the Electoral College is biased by two points toward Obama, which would be one of the largest biases ever.

Why might this bias persist through Election Day? The argument would go something like this: Barack Obama’s ground game and swing state spending advantage create something of a firewall in key swing states like Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Under this theory, the outsized Obama presence in these states makes them “sticky.” In other words, at a time when the rest of the country moves heavily toward Romney, these states will be less likely to do so. 

I find this hypothesis particularly persuasive for Ohio, where the auto bailout and Bain Capital air assault might have immunized blue-collar whites in northern Ohio from the same forces that have drawn similarly situated whites toward Romney nationally.

[Raycpa]

State polls typically are a lagging indicator because polls from states are updated less frequently.

[Perdogg]

Did you include ME2 in your analysis?

[Perdogg]

Have you noticed that the UC Boulder model is shaping up nicely?

[CPT Clay]

Check this out: 32 combinations that election ends in a tie.
bit.ly/Qi4WuZ
ht Dean Clancy

[CPT Clay]

http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map/ties.php?party=dem&num_rem=68&st_remain=FL,PA,OH,MI,NC,VA,WI,CO,IA,NV,NH&me=&ne=

Maybe this will work.

[Perdogg]

I don’t see any of those scenarios falling out.

[Raycpa]

Yep. Hope they are right.

[Mike Darancette]

Because of the Democrat advantage in the big blue states Obama winning the EC but not the popular vote is unlikely; more likely Obama wins popular vote but loses EC like Bush 2000.

[PghBaldy]

If we had a tie, we could have Pres Romney chosen by House, and VP Biden chosen by Senate .

[Perdogg]

assuming the Senate does not change hands.

[Ron C.]

How likely? I don't think it is at all likely - this is already shaping up to be a blow-out for Romney, and as each day goes by, it looks to be bigger and bigger and bigger.

Biggest nail in Zero's coffin - his intentional lying about what took place in Benghazi.

[stevem]

How Likely Is an Electoral Vote/Popular Vote Split?

Highly unlikely in a blowout.

[Republican Wildcat]

This would not happen unless the eventual winner wins with less than a full percentage point of the vote. If Romney wins the popular vote with a full percentage point or more I don’t see this happening.

[Old Sarge]

You actually think there will even BE an election, doncha?

[Sherman Logan]

Unless I’m quite confused, the Congress that would decide an EC tie is the lame duck Congress that does not include the new members.

Also, voting is by majority of state delegations, which means it is theoretically quite possible for the party with a majority of the House to not be able to elect its candidate as President. Don’t think it applies this year, though. Or very often, since Democratic reps are concentrated in the larger states.

[Perdogg]

it would be the new members

[paudio]

Assuming Romney won FL, VA, and CO, the combination of NV, IA, and Maine’s split vote is enough even if he lost OH.

[Freeze923]

Forget Ohio — As long as CO holds; Romney needs to win 2 of NH (RR ahead 50-46 in latest poll), NV, WI, IA. personally I think they are in that order of likelyhood.

Obama is as likely to win VA, NC and FL as Romney is of winninig PA & MI