Posted on 10/11/2012 8:31:02 AM PDT by LS
Ok, I finally got around to comparing the total shortfall by both Ds and Rs from 2008 to 2012 in those counties reporting 2008 data. (Most which haven't are not big pop, key counties, so their inclusion probably wouldn't change the ratios much). First, total absentee requests in OH fell from 2008. Second, two counties, Montgomery (mine) and Cuyahoga, actually GAINED R absentees over 08. Third, the data is as of close of business yesterday.
Total D dropoff from 2008: 224,550
Total R dropoff: 49,270
Total NET D dropoff: 175,280
Obama won OH by 250,000 votes.
I'll play. First, not requesting an absentee ballot does not mean that person is not voting. I did not ask for one and I'm voting next monday. Second, last Thursday (Oct. 11) at OSU, Obama had the lead singer for the Black Eyed Peas open the rally on the oval for him. After Obama finished, they had buses bracketing the oval to take anyone who wanted to go to the Franklin Co. board of elections to early voting. And the singer gave a mini concert in the parking lot of the board of elections. http://www.thelantern.com/campus/obama-don-t-boo-vote-to-ohio-state-oval-crowd-1.2923784?pagereq=2 "Following the rally, charter busses were available to transport people, accompanied by will.i.am, to and from an early voting location. “I need you fired up. I need you ready to go to vote. Because we’ve got some work to do,” Obama said."
Most of Upstate NY is republican and NYC which dominates the state is 10 hours away. Furthermore, taking dems from upstate NY will cost them dearly in the congressional elections.
“So, if you figure the Ds are already down 175,000 votes after absentee voting, Rs have to secure only 85,000 votes outside of Cuyahoga.”
...but isn’t the deadline Nov 3 for requesting ABs? As of right now the gap is 166,000
>> this election will see more voter fraud and intimidations
Maybe fraud, but intimidation?
EVERYBODY IN CLEVELAND YOU GOT LOW INCOME WELFARE DISABILITY GOT OBAMA PHONE!!!
GOT OBAMA PHONE
GOT OBAMA PHONE
GOT OBAMA PHONE
So, it is incubent on a critic to explain why overall voter behavior (i.e., aside from declines in total absentee ballots, why fewer people would suddenly not vote absentee) would change, and more important, why (since this is across the board in every county) these trends would not hold up in other parts of the process.
This is exactly the stuff Michael Barone does all the time and he's almost always right: he looks at key precincts in key counties that are predictors. Well, in 08 EVERYONE agreed absentee/early voting were "predictors." So let's play the game. They are predicting a big Zero loss . . . unless voter behavior radically changes.
Even more to the point, there was a huge effort to get MORE Ds out for absentees this time, and it had an epic fail.
McCain won OH in the general. He lost in early voting. He lost from Cuyahoga Co. So the implication is that by election day, based on the early-absentee shortfalls, the Rs only have to make up 85,000, which they can do easily. Red counties can come out 3:1 if history is a guide---but they didn't in 08.
I’m sorry, but I don’t understand. Can you show me your calculations from this please?:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0
Add together all 2008 D absentee totals from all counties. You should get something above 225,000, then add all R ballot requests and you should get something around 49,000. Subtract 49,000 from 225,000 and that is the NET shortfall from 2008. As I say, my numbers are almost certainly a little low as I didn't count some of the really small counties, and the numbers are three days old.
Take 260,000---the total margin of victory in 2008 for Obama in OH---and subtract 175,000 (the current decrease/shortfall in absentee ballots) and you get 85,000 votes that the GOP has to make up. This is HUGELY bettr than 08.
Adam S Baldwin tweeted this.
https://twitter.com/adamsbaldwin/status/256823415669919744
Er, no. From 04 to 08 there was a shift of 360,000 votes.
Dems already are 175,000 BELOW their absentee requests in 2008, so they are already (by your calculations) 75,000 in the whole.
Rs carry election day in OH. All Romney has to do is not fall far behind before election day, and in absentees, he's doing a great job.
“gap of 166,000” in ballots requested? Or returned?
I have no idea what you’re talking about. Have a nice election.
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