[profit_guy]

I’m sorry, but I don’t understand. Can you show me your calculations from this please?:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

[LS]

I added all D absentees currently requested from any county that had data for both 08 and 2012. I left out any counties that did not have 08 data; and I left out a couple of very small counties whose change for either party was in the hundreds.

Add together all 2008 D absentee totals from all counties. You should get something above 225,000, then add all R ballot requests and you should get something around 49,000. Subtract 49,000 from 225,000 and that is the NET shortfall from 2008. As I say, my numbers are almost certainly a little low as I didn't count some of the really small counties, and the numbers are three days old.

Take 260,000---the total margin of victory in 2008 for Obama in OH---and subtract 175,000 (the current decrease/shortfall in absentee ballots) and you get 85,000 votes that the GOP has to make up. This is HUGELY bettr than 08.