Posted on 10/10/2012 11:21:47 PM PDT by libh8er
The effects of President Barack Obama’s falter in the first debate with Mitt Romney are not just being felt in battleground states, according to KPIX-TV CBS 5′s latest tracking poll of California which shows Romney slicing eight points off Obama’s lead.
Obama had led by 22 points in the CBS 5 tracking poll released four weeks ago. Obama now leads by only 14 points, an 8-point improvement for Romney. At the same time, the poll found U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s support for her re-election bid remained largely unchanged, month-on-month, suggesting that the erosion in Democratic support is not across-the-board, but contained to Obama. Unclear is whether the Obama erosion is fleeting or long-lasting.
The poll data released Wednesday showed Obama 53%, Romney 39%, in California. Obama carried the Golden State by 24 points in 2008, so the poll found Obama is now running 10 points weaker than he ran 4 years ago. Among Independents, Obama led by 14 in September, but now trails by 9 in October, a 23-point right turn among the most coveted voters. One explanation, based on the poll data: The number of Romney supporters who said they were voting “for Mitt Romney” as opposed to “against Barack Obama” is way up, month over month.
(Excerpt) Read more at sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com ...
This shift should manifest itself into wins down ticket. U.S. House, state assembly, and local races in California’s purple regions are probably competitive for Republicans.
53% is not all that great for Obama, and Calif. is REALLY hurting!
$6 gas and they still support Obozo. Wish CA had a “break into three parts” clause like Texas does.
That’s because they’d rather pay $5 for gas than get shipped back to Mexico.
I think that Obama has seen his high water mark in CA with this poll
It will never happen now, but too bad it didn't happen 20 or 30 years ago. California is mostly red by geographical area, but even the red counties have been ruined now, and they are just as depressing to live in as the blue counties. My county was a vibrant, self sustaining, productive county when I grew up, thanks to the lumber industry. Now everybody who is not unemployed and living off the government directly works for the government (now the largest employer), medical industry (almost the same thing), or Indian gambling casinos (largest single employer in my county). And the attitudes of people living there reflect the change too, and it is not good. People know when they are a productive community and producing good stuff (lumber products in our case) that the rest of the world needs and wants and is willing to pay for, versus leeching off of the productivity of others or leeching off of wealth created in the past. As a third generation native Californian this is very depressing.
My fault. Things have gone downhill since I moved out of CA in 1985.
I agree. California is only good for milking for campaign fundraisers. I doubt Romney has any illusions about winning that conquered state.
We have seen some interesting polling in suburban Chicago and now a shift in CA. While the conventional red state / blue state thinking and money/time limitations have meant abandoning many states, I truly believe a mass landslide of Reagan-like proportions was possible this year. I see 300-320 electoral votes as plausible, if not likely, but I think the trend and the final numbers may suggest that Romney missed an opportunity to win forty-plus states.
No you don’t, if CA became three states, even in the best scenario, the ‘Rats would get two states with solid senatorial delegations and there’s be a swing-state where the senatorial delegation would float back and forth between ‘Rat and GOP.
“Obama’s falter in the first debate”...
Failure, it was a ‘complete failure’.
While I have no dillusions Cali or NY will fall even under the best circumstances, I still stand completely by the prediction I made months ago, and that is Obama WILL NOT GET over 42-43% of the popular vote MAX! And it is every possibly that he may not see 40% and even possibly get a lower percentage of the vote than Hoover did in 1932.
I later futher stated that Obama will not win a single state he did not get 55% of the popular vote in in 2008, with the exception of MN. And will win a few states where he got over 55% (WI for example)
I stand completely by those predictions.
I also predict that tonights VP debate will go one of two ways... Ryan will probably win the debate on merit, but Biden will go for the likeable “grandpa” and probably not much will change, with who won the debate being probably a draw in terms of focus groups. OR Ryan will effectively counter Biden’s “charming” attempts and win the merit side, and the likeability factor but not by a huge margin.. so net outcome will likely not be much change.
OR, if Biden comes out nasty and agressive, Ryan will calmly counter and handle himself, pundits will declare Biden the winner not on any merit, but because he was agressive and attacked and they just want raw meat, but if Biden goes this rout he risks overplaying of the hand to be attack dog given Obama’s flop will probably provide a furhter bounce for the R/R ticket. Being nasty will excite the leftist pundits but will turn off middle america.
Obama will face the same problem in the next 2 debates, his petty nasty side will likely show through since he’s behind the 8 ball and his attempt to recover will likely show how small and petty he is, and further tank him in the polls.
So, end of the night.. at best the Republicans will get a bit more momentum, at worst they will continue with the same momentum they have. I really don’t see a calculous where Biden can put the genie back in the bottle. Ryan isn’t going to dissintegrate.
I don’t know which track the Dems will take tonight, but I suspect, given Obamas horrific performance, and the lefts demands for red meat, that Biden is going to likely play against his strengths and attempt to play attack dog and overplay his hand, rather than play to his strengths which are buffuddled but likeable grandpa. If he does this, pundents will almost certainly fawn over Biden, however this IMHO is not going to help the O/B ticket. It will pander to their hard core base, but will further move the rest of the elctorate against them.
So, worst case, nothing really changes, best case, R’s get another momentum boost.
I have heard this before but doubt that it is true. Who makes this decision, Texas? Does not seem to be constitutional.
Do you have a link which proves this?
Hey, people need marijuana. :)
Jeff Stone, County supervisor of Riverside County is trying to form “South California” with some other counties. This new state would cut its lines around and excluding LA county. He won’t succeed, but I appreciate his attempt.
Ha! That is funny! A couple days ago I saw a headline that asked, “If government legalizes marijuana, will farmers grow it?” and I thought that was hilarious, farmers in California ALREADY grow it, and lots of it!
What you're trying to do is place the overwhelming number of California liberals in their own segregated playpen so they can do no harm to the minority of decent folk and California can go back to being what it was in the 1930s.
Right, and if you could do that I'll move back to CA within a week. It's fantasy.
No need to be so nasty.
YOU are the one that said it could not geographically be done. I showed you that it could. It’s not a Berlin wall situation, where isolated pockets are liberal all over the state. They are all on the coast, making a longitudinal split easy.
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