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NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll: Romney Gains In Key Swing States [OH: 2/3 Early Voting for Obama?}
NBCNews ^ | October 10, 2012 | Domenico Montanaro

Posted on 10/10/2012 9:59:34 PM PDT by Steelfish

NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll: Romney Gains In Key Swing States By Domenico Montanaro A week after President Barack Obama’s lackluster debate performance, Republican challenger Mitt Romney has made some gains in three key swing states among those most likely to vote, according to the latest round of NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.

Romney and Obama remain in a virtual tie in Virginia and Florida, and the Democratic incumbent maintains a slight advantage in Ohio.

Romney saw his largest gain in Virginia, where he now edges the president 48 percent to 47 percent, a 3-point reversal from last week’s poll, released the day of the first presidential debate. The spread is within the poll’s margin of error.

In Florida, before the debate, it was a 1-point race with Obama leading 47 percent to 46 percent. Now, it is still a 1-point race with Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent.

In Ohio, where there has been a renewed focus by the Romney campaign after the former Massachusetts governor’s strong debate performance, Obama leads 51 percent to 45 percent. That’s a 2-point uptick for Romney.

But the Ohio poll also included an 11-point advantage for self-described Democrats --- 40 percent to 29 percent for Republicans. Last week’s poll had a narrower 5-point advantage for Democrats. . (In 2008, the party identification split was 39 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican, according to exit polls.)

One factor that may have pulled the party ID more heavily toward Democrats in this poll was early voting. One-in-five respondents (18 percent) said they have already voted, and, of those, almost two-thirds (63 percent) said they voted for Obama.

(Excerpt) Read more at firstread.nbcnews.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Ohio; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; oh2012
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To: Jake8898

I voted yesterday in Iowa. Was surprisingly pleased with the security of the process.
One benefit of voting early: The campaigns stop calling you because they know you have already voted.


41 posted on 10/11/2012 4:18:54 AM PDT by cornfedcowboy (Trust in God, but empty the clip.)
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To: LS

This from another forum...

“Ohio is going to be huge. Tons of Steelworkers are headed to Ohio for last minute campaigning. “


42 posted on 10/11/2012 4:20:06 AM PDT by bluecat6
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To: bluecat6

FreedomWorks has been here for a month on our side.


43 posted on 10/11/2012 4:23:54 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: snarkytart

Party ID for Ohio in this poll

Party ID is D +11 (Dem 40, Rep 29, Ind 29)
2008 was D +8 (Dem 39, Rep: 31, Ind 30) 2004 was R +5 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind: 25)


44 posted on 10/11/2012 4:24:01 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Perdogg

http://www.unskewedpolls.com/

UnSkewed Avg. 9/24 - 10/4

D+3.3

Romney 48.9
Ubama 45.0

Very good considering the D+3 skew and the fact this goes back to 9/24 before the debate!


45 posted on 10/11/2012 4:32:09 AM PDT by newfreep (Breitbart sent me...)
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To: Steelfish

In my state they must be counting voter fraud because I have still not seen one bozo sign yet and about on average 3 bozo stickers a week on a car.

Contrast this to Romney signs which are all over, stickers on cars about 7 a day


46 posted on 10/11/2012 4:43:03 AM PDT by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: cornfedcowboy

Honest question...What controls are in place to keep them from tossing your ballot in the trash? If they know it’s your ballot and which party you’re registered with, they can assume with about 85% accuracy the candidate voted for.


47 posted on 10/11/2012 5:37:58 AM PDT by Jake8898
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To: DrC

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

You can scan the RCP list of 2008 polling from just before the election and going back into time......


48 posted on 10/11/2012 6:22:32 AM PDT by deport
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To: DrC
Info on polling accuracy
49 posted on 10/11/2012 6:24:16 AM PDT by deport
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To: Steelfish

Well I have undeniable proof that this is poll is quite a bit off: George Mason University keeps track of Ohio early voting ballots returned, and so far only 119,000 (or 2.1% of all votes cast in 2008) have been returned....yet this poll claims 18% of ohio has already voted early. Sorry but they’ve screwed this poll up big time somehow.

Furthermore the electorate is not going to be MORE democratic than in 2008 - it will likely be somewhere between 2008 and 2010 levels, maybe d+2 or 3


50 posted on 10/11/2012 6:26:48 AM PDT by NY4Romney
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To: manc

I am deeply concerned about the extent of vote Rat vote fraud.


51 posted on 10/11/2012 6:33:13 AM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: snarkytart; LS

It’s a bad sample. Actual numbers from 880,000 early/absentee voters show dems requesting 30% of ballots and repubs requesting 23.4% of ballots as of this am. That leaves 47% unaffiliateds. For the Marist poll to show Obama winning 67% of the early vote that would mean he would take all 30% of the early dem vote which I assume he will and then another 80% of the 47% unaffiliateds leaving only 20% of the 47% unaffiliateds to repubs. That obviously does not pass the smell test. Bigtime. Rogue sample. Just use common sense here.


52 posted on 10/11/2012 6:50:53 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: Ravi; plushaye; LdSentinal
Just asked the mod to post some new #s on yesterday's update site. I added all the dropoff of Ds from 2008 to 2012 in absentees, then all the Rs (two big counties actually gained Rs in those 4 years).

Upshot: NET, Ds are off over 175,000 from absentee requests in 08. And Obama won OH by 250,000? And someone thinks he can win now????

53 posted on 10/11/2012 6:59:52 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Red Steel

That’s an 11% difference, but it relates to a national number that is in the neighborhood of 28%, iirc. So, it’s 11% additional of 28% that supports Romney. Romney ends up with 54% of that 28% and Obama gets 34% of 28%. If it’s a poll of a thousand, then 280 of them are indies. If R and O split the remainder that means that 720/2 goes to each = 360. It’s now R 360 + 151 = 522 with O at 360 + 95 = 455. There’s still 34 Indie votes unaccounted for.

That should give you a 52/45 race if you assume a 0 point advantage before you split the non-indie vote.


54 posted on 10/11/2012 7:03:41 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: Jake8898

The computer prints a sticker with your ballot#. I was #1157. It will be checked on election day that ballot #1157 was processed. The ballot was placed in a sealed envelope with #1157 on envelope.
About the only risk I can see is if the individual placing the ballots in the machine was to tamper with my ballot. That actual ballot needs to be verified that it was processed. I suppose two things could happen.
1.They were to mark on my ballot(fill in other blanks) thereby nullifying my vote.
2.Throwing it in the trash. This would get noticed but maybe too late after the votes are already counted.


55 posted on 10/11/2012 7:44:07 AM PDT by cornfedcowboy (Trust in God, but empty the clip.)
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To: LS

I received an email from MoveOn, saying that the Democrats had lost their lead in Ohio and that even Sherrod Brown was now a couple of points below the challenger and they needed money in Ohio.


56 posted on 10/11/2012 8:17:43 AM PDT by Eva (Obama and Hillary lied, Americans died.)
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To: snarkytart; Steelfish

More REAL numbers that explode this hogwash: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2943298/post


57 posted on 10/11/2012 8:36:38 AM PDT by piytar (The predator-class is furious that their prey are shooting back.)
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To: LS

Gena Bell Bump
FreedomWorks has been here for a month on our side.


58 posted on 10/11/2012 8:45:01 AM PDT by CPT Clay (Follow me on Twitter @Clay N TX)
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To: LS
I vaguely recall there being some controversy over military voting in Ohio. The Obama administration was doing something to suppress the military vote, but I can't remember what it was.

Ah yes, here it is: Ohio lawsuit raises military voting questions

How did that turn out? I hear that the military is voting overwhelmingly for Romney.

59 posted on 10/11/2012 9:07:12 AM PDT by Eva (Obama and Hillary lied, Americans died.)
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To: bluecat6

LoL, about 10 steelworkers would make a “ton”.


60 posted on 10/11/2012 10:02:35 AM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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