Romney cuts into Obama's early voter advantage (what we have all been saying!)

AP ^ | 10/8/12 | stephen ohlemacher

[Ravi]

WASHINGTON (AP) — Mitt Romney's campaign is working hard to chip away at President Barack Obama's advantage among early voters, and there are signs the effort is paying off in North Carolina and Florida, two competitive states that the Republican nominee can ill afford to lose. Obama is doing better in Iowa, another battleground state important to both candidates.

[NY4Romney]

Ravi, I’ve noticed you seem to be tracking early voting fairly consistently, so I was hoping you could explain something to me. I check the early voting statistics daily, and it seems republicans are voting in higher numbers than in 2008. One place where I’m a little confused though is in Ohio. It’s clear Republicans are requesting ballots at a pace that FAR outpaces 2008, but it’s almost TOO much of a swing. I know in Ohio, they don’t use voter registration per se, but are simply reporting the last primary they voted in. Does that matter? Is early voting in Ohio seriously favoring Romney that much, or is it just because of the weird way they classify voters. Please explain :)

[Ravi]

I think you’re on to something there. As an example, FL, NC and IA seem pretty easy to track b/c when you register you pick a party. Therefore, the indies in those states are true independents for the most part with leans this way or that way. But in OH, since party is determined by which party primary you voted in, it would miss those dems or repubs that chose not to vote in a party primary. Also some counties I saw kept tabs back to 2006 to see if you voted in a party primary - that way you would still be listed as dem/repub if you voted in a primary in 2006 but not 2008/2010/2012. Not all counties do that I believe. But adding to the confusion, it seems not all counties are diligent with their labelling of repubs/dems/indies. I’ve seen reports where people that did actually vote in a party primary are still listed as indies/unaffiliated. How widespread is this error? I don’t know. I think this may throw the results to a slight extent especially for smaller counties who may not be as diligent. However for Cuyahoga which I’ve been following, their county registration status seems pretty up to date as far as I can tell. Dems there have voted in a dem primary and repubs in a repub primary. So I like to keep tabs on Cuyahoga just as a reference and preference to give me an idea of what’s going on. So there repubs have requested 45,000 ballots thus far compared to 35,000 all of 2008 - that right there on its face is an enthusiasm advantage. I don’t know how else this could be read. Of course dmes are requesting a lot of ballots also but are trailing our percentage of requests. They are at less than 33% of their registered voters and we are at more than 33% of our registered voters just for Cuyahoga. Franklin OTH is more confusing. There are a lot of indies how many are true indies and how many are dems and repubs I think is still open to question. Obama beating McCain by 21 points in 2008 was due to a lot of indies voting his way. They had not voted in any dem primary. We are ahead in Franklin now and McCain was behind but both dem/repub totals are eclipsed by unaffiliated totals - this is a county I am curious to see if anyone else can provide any insight. Hamilton seems to be coming back to the fold as a true swing county and at a 12% ballot request advantage currently, I think that county looks promising also.

[cardinal4]

The comments on all news sites are good indicators of public sentiment. I’m surprised they still have them, most pages are running like 70-30 against Baraq Hussein’s regime. At least that’s been my experience with local news affiliates here in STL..

[MacMattico]

I'm hoping many of the lefty wing nuts will vote Roseanne at the last minute when they see a “celebrity” (term used very loosely) on their ballot!

[SarahPalinForPresident2012]

I expect Romney to lead in all the national EV polls, as well as in swing state polls, by the time the debates are done.

Ryan is going to absolutely butcher Biden. Can’t wait.

[sam_paine]

italianquaker: My families absentee ballot is filled out and waiting to be submitted!!!! Put 2 in Romneys column for Florida early!

Don't many states only count absentee ballots if the margin on election day is close?

And wouldn't there just be a lot more room for "lost ballots in democrat trunks" with these where poll watchers are not as likely?

I'm just wondering if voting absentee due to eagerness might not play into the Chicago Machine's hand some...

[beef]

I will probably be voting early in NC. I have notices that most of the early voting centers don't open until 11:00AM. Early enough, I suppose, to accommodate their intended customers.

I am getting a good feeling about this election. Ignore the pools, vote Romney, and convince others to vote Romney.

Oh,and register now for your DU account. IIRC, in 2004 they shut down guest access after Lurches shellacking, and we all will want to revel in their lamentations!

[devolve]

.

LIBERAL REPORTER #1:
Governor Romney do you play golf?

GOVERNOR MITT ROMNEY:
“I did a few times when I was in high school - but that was before I was actively in business.”

LIBERAL REPORTER #1:
“That’s racist!”

LIBERAL REPORTER #2:
Governor Romney did you ever use drugs?

GOVERNOR MITT ROMNEY:
“No.”

LIBERAL REPORTER #2:
“That’s pretty racist!”

LIBERAL REPORTER #3:
Governor Romney did you ever play basketball?

GOVERNOR MITT ROMNEY:
“Yes - With my sons and grandchildren on family gatherings.”

LIBERAL REPORTER #3:
“That’s incredibly racist!”

.

[Fresh Wind]

I have never requested an absentee ballot, and prefer to vote the old fashioned way.

But, this is the first time ever that an absentee ballot request form has been sent to me.

[2111USMC]

I’m pretty sure all absentee ballots are counted. I know they are in Iowa.

[dforest]

Those are just people who cant wait to get The Won out of the White House.

[wiggen]

Change your sn to EarlyVoterRavi!!!!!
Thank’s as always.

[LS]

I just don't buy that conspiracy theory, esp. with a GOP Gov and Sec State.

True, absentees aren't counted immediately unless within MOE, but eventually all votes are counted for final tallies by law.

Significance of absentees is the TREND, which shows Rs having much larger turnout than 08 (i.e., 2010 levels) and Ds having much smaller turnout (i.e., enough to, say, lose OH by 4 points).

[sam_paine]

I’m pretty sure all absentee ballots are counted. I know they are in Iowa.

True for Iowa.

All absentee ballots that are received on time are considered for counting. Absentee ballots received by Election Day are counted on Election Day. Ballots received after Election Day but before the deadline are counted when the absentee and special voters' precinct board meets as long as they are postmarked the day before Election Day or earlier. - sos@sos.iowa.gov

But not everywhere.

It is estimated that nearly 6.8 million absentee ballots cast nationally in the 2008 presidential election were never counted.

[sam_paine]

but eventually all votes are supposed to be counted for final tallies by law.

Fixed it.

http://www.examiner.com/article/florida-officials-found-throwing-out-absentee-ballots-2012-elections

It's not a theory and it need not be a conspiracy.

It's easier to discard or misplace votes before election day. That's a fact.

[italianquaker]

I did think of that but there is a code and number too call to check on your ballot(I was told)

[NY4Romney]

I agree - Cuyahoga does looks good, though I’m still concerned about the high number of “no party” voters, which there are more of than there are democrats, which might skew things. Ohio is the most important state at this point, IMO, so I’m trying to track early voting and see how it’s going. It does seem early voting is up in McCain Counties moreso than Obama counties though, which I think is a useful analysis.

[hoosiermama]

LS is from Ohio and might also give you some insight.

[devolve]

.

Just now on FNC:

An Obama TV ad mentioned convicted swindler “Bernie Madoff” to connect him to Mitt Romney after the PBS/Big Bird debate comments -

Bernie Madoff was a big Obama campaign donor!!!!!!

He is in prison now.......

.

Are all the Obama goons so stupid and lazy before they make another nutcase comment or TV ad?

.

[LS]

Actually, the swings from D to R in the Obama counties is far higher than the pure increase in R counties. This is where the action is: massive D underperformance in blue counties and heavy R overperformance in those same counties (i.e., Franklin and Hamilton, which both went for Zero).