I agree - Cuyahoga does looks good, though I’m still concerned about the high number of “no party” voters, which there are more of than there are democrats, which might skew things. Ohio is the most important state at this point, IMO, so I’m trying to track early voting and see how it’s going. It does seem early voting is up in McCain Counties moreso than Obama counties though, which I think is a useful analysis.
Actually, the swings from D to R in the Obama counties is far higher than the pure increase in R counties. This is where the action is: massive D underperformance in blue counties and heavy R overperformance in those same counties (i.e., Franklin and Hamilton, which both went for Zero).