Latest polls: Romney's uphill fight not as steep

Christian Science Monitor ^ | October 7, 2012 | Brad Knickerbocker,

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Public opinion polls are moving things in Mitt Romney's direction, with one expert suggesting that Romney 'has peeled off some of Mr. Obama’s softer support in addition to gaining ground among undecided voters.'

A Rasmussen national survey out at week’s end shows a shift from Obama 49-47 to Romney 49-47.

“This is a small shift that’s significant in a close race,” pollster Scott Rasmussen told the New York Post. “Both candidates have a stable base, and the race is close. Barring something that happens in the real world, it’s likely to remain close.”

“Bounces are called bounces because they don’t last forever,” Mr. Rasmussen says. “We don’t know if this will disappear, or if they will build on it, or what other news will do to the race.”

The latest Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll shows President Obama's lead dropping from five points (48-43) to just two points (46-44). In Gallup’s daily tracking poll, Romney picked up two points, putting him within three points of Obama (46-49). The RealClearPolitics polling average (as of Saturday) has Obama ahead by just 1.4 points.

State polls are instructive as well.

In Wisconsin, the Public Policy Polling organization finds “a big debate bump for Mitt Romney.” Two weeks ago he trailed Obama by 7 points there, 52-45. Now he's pulled to within two points, with Obama's lead now just 49-47.

“Romney's image has seen significant improvement over the last couple weeks with 49 percent of voters now expressing a positive opinion of him to 48 percent with a negative one,” PPP reported Saturday. “That's up a net 8 points from a 44-51 spread on our last poll.”

Although Obama hung on to his 9-point lead among independent voters in Wisconsin, according to PPP, there's also been “a big uptick in Republican enthusiasm about the election.”

[Cincinatus' Wife]

APOPKA, FL Oct. 6, 2012

October 6, 2012: “Mitt Romney thrills throngs of admirers in Apopka”

“.......The citizens at Apopka Amphitheater were also both ready and willing to endure some difficult conditions, and lucky they weren’t worse.

The Romney campaign said it took in RSVPs from 14,000 to 15,000 people to the event, though it did not know how many actually came. Apopka Chief Administrative Officer Richard Anderson said earlier the amphitheater had a capacity of about 10,000. The place was overflowing, and most of the last few thousand people, at least, who arrived had to fight through crawling traffic. Many people abandoned their cars along the roads’ grassy shoulders and walked a mile or more to get to the park.

But these people were happy to be there together, and having watched Romney’s debate performance last week, they were feeling like winners. They thundered a welcome when Romney and his wife, Ann, took stage, then cheered and roared repeatedly through his 23-minute speech.

They and Romney caught a major break when vicious evening thunderstorms rolled over menacingly but passed Apopka by, leaving just a few sprinkled drops.”.... - Story

[Cincinatus' Wife]

[FRIDAY]

“Romney gets group hug in St. Pete”

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — The defining moment of Mitt Romney’s first Florida appearance after his consensus triumph in the first presidential debate was, perhaps, not something he said in his upbeat 25-minute speech, but the reaction of the crowd of 5,500, plus about 2,000 standing outside the barriers at St. Petersburg’s Pier Park.

When Romney’s campaign bus pulled into Pier Park at 6:50 p.m. Friday and the candidate got out, the crowd didn’t just scream and cheer as is the norm for this kind of thing, but pressed in on him as he made his way to the outdoor podium, like a group hug.

That sense was echoed by some of the people who attended the rally.

“He grabbed my hand three times,” said an excited Audrey Rumsey of Spring Hill, who came with her parents, Walt and Mary Southard.”

http://www.adn.com/2012/10/06/2652324/romney-gets-group-hug-in-st-pete.html

[Cincinatus' Wife]

“Romney arrives at Tradition Square in Port St. Lucie U.S. Rep. Allen West, R-Palm Beach Gardens, arrived at Tradition about 2:15 p.m. to a crowd shouting “West, West!” He will introduce GOP U.S. Rep. Connie Mack, who faces Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson in a Senate bid.

Romney is expected to speak just after 3 p.m. with his wife Ann, said Romney spokesman Tom Brandt. Florida Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater, Sen. Joe Negron, R-Stuart, and others are speaking before Romney. Atty. Gen. Pam Bondi also is expected to speak.

The crowd about 2:20 p.m. was led in a Hebrew prayer followed by the pledge of allegiance. Alana Ferraro, a Port St. Lucie High School graduate who is attending Florida Gulf Coast university, sang the national anthem, with hundreds singing along.

Negron took the microphone before Romney arrived, saying “Romney has to win Florida, and we’re all going to make that happen.”

St. Lucie County Fire District crews have taken a handful of attendees out on stretchers from the heat. But cloud cover and potential rain are moving into the area.

Residents came from across the Treasure Coast and beyond to hear the candidate they hope will be the next president.

Trudy Ruddy, 81, of Green Acres in Palm Beach County, said she came to see Romney speak because of her family.

“I came here because I have five grandsons and I like what Romney has to offer them: a future. I want my grandchildren to have a life in which they are not saddled with debt and no jobs,” Ruddy said.

Teresa Cabal, 50, of Miami, said today is her 50th birthday and what better company could she spend the day with than “the future president. I’m so emotional to be here. There is so much motivation.”

Mary Waterman, 57, Palm Bay, said “I think Mitt is going to be our next president, and it’s part of my bucket list to see the president before I die. Mitt is everything Obama isn’t, and that’s what our country needs. My son is in the Air Force and Obama has cut the military’s budget. I’m here for my son, too.”

Kathy Farrell, of Port St. Lucie, said she arrived at Tradition Square about 12:15 p.m.

“I’m sweating, but I’m excited. Romney is the only one of the two not running a dirty campaign. He is the change the U.S. needs.”

Roger Godin, Stuart, said “I’ve lived all over the world as an executive chef at major hotels, and I came back to America to this mess Obama left us. Romney is going to change this. We need a real president who can speak without a prompter.”

http://www.tcpalm.com/news/2012/oct/07/crowd-swelling-anticipation-romneys-visit-port-st/

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Port St. Luce, Fla. Crowd size 15,000! Photos.

Just completed Port St. Luce, Fla Rally.

[Brad from Tennessee]

Great post! Nice to see Christian Science Monitor quoting the New York Post, Rasmussen and RealClearPolitics.

[SamAdams76]

When Obama was up two points in the polls, the MSM was declaring that Obama was on his way to an easy landslide.

Now Romney is up by two and MSM is saying that his "uphill fight is not as steep".

[verum ago]

Methinks if the polls showed actually likely voter turnout (weren't skewed toward the Dem's 2008 advantage), it would be Obama with the uphill battle. At the moment. There's still a long way to go...

[radpolis]

This election is going to be a nail biter.

It is going to be like the 2000 election.

If Romney loses the Electoral College, I think he may still get the popular vote, because I don’t think Democrats are going to go vote in the Blue States of California, New York, etc, because they are a sure thing.

[albionin]

I don’t believe the polls any more than I believe the unemployment figures. The Press lives in a Kantian fantasy world. I really do believe that they have gone over the deep end and believe that they actually create reality by what they report.

[Jeff Chandler]

1. It was not a "shift". It was a change of direction.
2. It is not a "bounce". It is tipping point.

[af_vet_1981]

with one expert suggesting that Romney 'has peeled off some of Mr. Obama’s softer support in addition to gaining ground among undecided voters.'

LOL,clever journalist trying to mask his bias. Nate Silver is an Obama partisan who writes the 539 blog for the NY Times website. He is an election observer and statistician whose model as of today claims Obama has an 80% probability of winning. An expert ? I think not.

[Jeff Chandler]

This election is not going to be a nail biter.

It is going to be like the 1984 election.

[riri]

These look to be some seriously huge crowds at these events.

Given that this ticket doesn't have quite the star power Palin brought to the last election --Ryan brings some--what are we to make of these crowds?

I am thrilled to see these pictures.

[WOSG]

“Gallup’s daily tracking poll, Romney picked up two points, putting him within three points of Obama (46-49). “

If this is still RV, then add 3 for the real RV poll.

ROMNEY IS LEADING.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Romney and G.O.P. Make Inroads in Silicon Valley

[af_vet_1981]

This election is not going to be a nail biter. It is going to be like the 1984 election.

Ridiculous; Reagan in 1984 was running on a successful first term; this is going to be a nailbiter or relatively close election. There are not that many states in play. Romney would max out around 300 or so EVs if he wins decisively and he could very well lose if OH or VA slip away. Obama has alot of money and the capability to raise more. If he raises illegal funds what are you going to do about it ? It is up the voters in about 4 states to ensure a Romney victory/Obama defeat (FL, VA, OH, CO).

[af_vet_1981]

who writes the 539 blog
who writes the 538 blog

[Brad from Tennessee]

Thanks.

[FreedBird]

The uphill fight is caused by the MSM working to prevent Romney from taking the hill.

[kara37]

1.It was not a "shift". It was a change of direction.

2.It is not a "bounce". It is tipping point.

*********************************************

So true. There really is no such thing as a debate bounce. Every incumbent that lost ground after the first debate never got it back.

Carter vs Reagan

Bush vs Clinton, Perot

Gore vs Bush

Bush 43 had a very comfortable lead in the polls until he lost the first debate to Kerry. We were just lucky that he managed to keep a razor thin lead in the polls, but he never gained back the points that he lost.