Just ‘eye balling’ the breakdown, I’d have to believe that Ras is weighting his turnout model to something like D+7 or D+8. There is no way it is D+4 when Romney attracts more D’s than Obama does R’s and Independents fall to Romney by 16 points!
15% of black vote? I mean thats not a lot, but I thought it was only around 10% in 2008 for McCain wasn’t it?
Looks like from those crosstabs that Romney is doing much better with Hispanics than Obama can afford.
The stat that jumps out at me is the right direction vs. wrong direction. That's a huge gap, and in the voting booth, the people who find Obama like-able aren't going to pull the lever for him if they believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. This is also why undecideds will break for Romney big time.
There are some weird numbers in there.
1- Blacks are more concerned about National Security than Whites? Not likely.
2- The economy is of more concern with “other” (Independents) than either R or Ds.
3- 15% of Blacks are voting for Romney. Lord Almighty let it be so.