It’s 51 state polls that matter, not the overall vote (right, Al Gore?) but this is a very positive break. I think viewership will go down for the subsequent debates because most Americans saw from Romney what they needed to see.
However, it can still turn around. Folks may remember that Reagan had a *terrible* first debate against Mondale in 1984 where some questioned if he wasn’t tired/too old/not up for it etc. but he bounced back solidly with his second debate (the famous “I will not exploit my opponent’s youth and inexperience for political purposes” line) and it all swung back for him.
I just think, with the dynamics of this election, Romney needed to show he was - by contrast - more thoughtful and more intelligent than Obama. He did that, removing one of the big questions voters had about him going in.
No, Obama need all 57 states to win.
Most in this country have a very short attention span. Most won’t watch the second debate and I still refuse to believe that 2% of people in this country would throw away a vote for “other”. But then, as long as they live in a state that doesn’t matter, go for it.
Very true...however, I don’t think a candidate would lose the Electoral vote if they win the overall popular vote by at least a full percentage point or more. Gore vs. Bush was a fraction of a percent in the difference. The state by state polls are not going to be run as often as the national polling so this is going to be the best indicator this point going forward.
Actually, I suspect that even more people will be watching the second debate of these two. I do agree that Mitt answered a lot of the concerns of over 60Million folks, but they will be telling their friends who didn’t see it the first time.
I will be watching myself (and I hate those things) just to see how each of them fare, though I know my vote won’t change.
Then, if Obama is not slaughtered, I think that there will be just as many watching the third, though I don’t think there will be many minds changed by it. If he is slaughtered, the viewership for that will be only the ambulance chasers who love blood and gore, and if Zero does well then, it won’t have much effect anyway. If he does mediocre to poor, there will be a bandwagon effect for Mitt.
I think this year all the debates are going to matter a lot.