How different does this district look from 2008, since it has been re-drawn? Weren’t these GOP-held districts drawn to give the Dems an overwhelming shot at knocking off the GOP incumbents? And if so, and assuming this poll is accurate, what then does it mean for Romney chances in IL (and beyond)?
The IL-10, as drawn in 2001, gave President Bush 47% in 2004; as redrawn last year the Bush 2004 percentage dropped to 45%. Apart from Cao’s fluke win in LA-02 in 2008, the GOP hasn’t held a CD in which Bush got below 46% in 2004 since Leach of IA-02 and Simmons of CT-02 lost reelection in 2006. But Dold is liberal enough that he will get quite a few crossovers, and it might just be enough to win reelection in what’s looking like at least a decent GOP year.
That being said, President Bush got 44% statewide in IL in 2004, and I don’t see how Romney could possibly carry the state.