The IL-10, as drawn in 2001, gave President Bush 47% in 2004; as redrawn last year the Bush 2004 percentage dropped to 45%. Apart from Cao’s fluke win in LA-02 in 2008, the GOP hasn’t held a CD in which Bush got below 46% in 2004 since Leach of IA-02 and Simmons of CT-02 lost reelection in 2006. But Dold is liberal enough that he will get quite a few crossovers, and it might just be enough to win reelection in what’s looking like at least a decent GOP year.
That being said, President Bush got 44% statewide in IL in 2004, and I don’t see how Romney could possibly carry the state.
It would not hurt to send Ryan to Rockford for a couple of hours, who knows?
I live in the new 10th District, and I’ve been canvasssing my precinct, since I’ll be paid by the Dold campaign. I’ve talked to many voters who say that they’re undecided about the presidential race and the congressional race. I’ve talked to the same number of people who said that they’ll vote for Obama and might vote for Dold.