Obama, Romney Tied Among Likely Voters (New Nat'l Journal poll, R up 8 w/Indies)

The National Journal ^ | Tuesday, October 2, 2012 | Shane Goldmacher

[kristinn]

I wonder if without rounding whether Romney took the lead in this survey?

[lstanle]

"The likely-voter party splits are 36 percent Democratic, 29 percent Republican, and 30 percent independent-"

I don't think the 2008 turnout model holds for 2012. I think Republicans will outnumber Dems this time. If they don't I think the best the Dems could do would be + 2-4 percent not 7.

[nhwingut]

The race was over last week. Yet 5 national polls out the last 2 days, all deadlocked within MOE, from E-3.

The media is in full panic on twitter - w Drudge/Hannity tape and latest polls.

Seeing Obama tank the next 4 weeks will be even more satisfying. Those videos, tweets, polls an articles are in the record forever to be rubbed in their faces.

[TonyInOhio]

I just finished posting this, then saw that you beat me by two minutes. Do you never sleep? :)

I bow before thee, O Freeper Extraordinaire!

[SeekAndFind]

47 + 47 = 94%. What are the other 6% doing anyway?

Still undecided?

Dick Morris says that in his observation...

But the fact is that the undecided vote always goes against the incumbent.

In 1980 (the last time an incumbent Democrat was beaten), for example, the Gallup Poll of October 27th had Carter ahead by 45-39. Their survey on November 2nd showed Reagan catching up and leading by three points. In the actual voting, the Republican won by nine. The undecided vote broke sharply — and unanimously — for the challenger.

An undecided voter has really decided not to back the incumbent. He just won’t focus on the race until later in the game.

I’m not sure if Dick Morris’ analysis stands up to scrutiny.

I’d really like to read the opinion of more knowledgeable folks out there on this one.

[kristinn]

Thanks. But in my haste to post I forgot to click the excerpt box. There is more at the source link

I found a Reuters poll from Sept. 2nd where Romney and Obama were tied at 45-45. Until tonight, Obama has had a small lead since the Democrat convention.

[Viennacon]

As questionable as Dick Morris’ track record is, he is pretty much considered a polling expert. You’re seeking some kind of polling messiah. Gallup Jesus perhaps. XD

[CaptainMorgantown]

The sampling for this poll appears to be 39 percent Dems, 32 Rep, so if they are even with a skewed sample like that, Obama is in huge trouble.

[AndyTheBear]

Wow if they are tied on a D+7 poll...Obama is in trouble.

[Jet Jaguar]

Poll ping.

[tatown]

PIng!

[patriot08]

.

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Also most political articles have a place at the bottom to leave your comments.
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.

[HamiltonJay]

Indies are roughly 40% of the electorate, with that said, if Romney is leading 54 to 46 (by 8 points) that represents about 3.5% of all voters...

20% of Blue Dog Dems are openly stating they will vote for Romney, which is about 20% of 60% of the Democratic vote and 30% of over all vote * 60% is 18% *20% - 3.6%

So Obama is down 3.6 points in the general election from him losing 20% of working class democratic whites, and is down another 3.5% of so from being behind eight among independents, leading to a grand loss of 7.2% down from 2008.. Which curiously is EXACTLY how much he won by in 2008... But, losing 7.2% of your vote, doesn’t equate to you only losing 7.2% of your vote, its a double effect, because for every point you lose your opponent gains, so a 7.2% loss of support = to a 14.4 percent swing...

Right now if the election were held with these numbers in tact, and this doesn’t even begin to factor in entusiasm gap etc.. You have an exact flip of the 2008 election with the R getting 52.9 and Obama getting 45.7.

And as I said this doesn’t even start to take into account the enthusiasm gap, or the loss of support among jews and catholics and others Obama has gotten. He has a statistical max of the low 40s on election day, and frankly him getting less than 40% is not remotely beyond the realm of possibility.

Fight like its neck and neck, but don’t get wrapped up in this everday public polling its nonsense.

[Gator113]

But, but, but we were told that it was over and Obama had won.

[Gator113]

No thanks for the aspirin. It has been tears, but I am ready to go back to Scotch with ice.

[Paddy Irish]

This is great news! That lead among independents is similar to the lead in the CNN poll had. I mentioned this before, but in the last 24 to 48 hours the off shore sportsbook odds have seen a dramatic change. The odds right now at SPORTSBOOK.com will pay +280 for a Romney win. That is 2.8 to 1. It was not that long ago in London were 9/2 or 4.5 to 1 for a Romney win. That is a dramatic change for those not familiar with gambling. Now don’t get depressed about the 2.8 to 1. The odds only move because of bets being placed in a lopsided manor.

[SuziQ]

If Obama can’t even break 50%, he’s not going to win this thing. Frankly I hope Mitt gets at least 55%, and immediately claims a MANDATE to repeal Obamacare! Hey, it trumps the 53% that supposedly gave Obama the mandate to put that monstrosity in place.

[Mase]

So the libs are changing their tactics. Instead of trying to demoralize the opposition, now they’re trying to light a fire under their base. I suppose that’s what can happen when you play that game and try to use polling to create public opinion rather than reflect it. I think it’s panic time in River City.

[lasereye]

So many of these polls have a major Dem advantage on party ID. I can believe that some are deliberately manipulated but all of them? Something else is going on. We just have to hope these aren’t accurate although Romney could still win even then.