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Indies are roughly 40% of the electorate, with that said, if Romney is leading 54 to 46 (by 8 points) that represents about 3.5% of all voters...

20% of Blue Dog Dems are openly stating they will vote for Romney, which is about 20% of 60% of the Democratic vote and 30% of over all vote * 60% is 18% *20% - 3.6%

So Obama is down 3.6 points in the general election from him losing 20% of working class democratic whites, and is down another 3.5% of so from being behind eight among independents, leading to a grand loss of 7.2% down from 2008.. Which curiously is EXACTLY how much he won by in 2008... But, losing 7.2% of your vote, doesn’t equate to you only losing 7.2% of your vote, its a double effect, because for every point you lose your opponent gains, so a 7.2% loss of support = to a 14.4 percent swing...

Right now if the election were held with these numbers in tact, and this doesn’t even begin to factor in entusiasm gap etc.. You have an exact flip of the 2008 election with the R getting 52.9 and Obama getting 45.7.

And as I said this doesn’t even start to take into account the enthusiasm gap, or the loss of support among jews and catholics and others Obama has gotten. He has a statistical max of the low 40s on election day, and frankly him getting less than 40% is not remotely beyond the realm of possibility.

Fight like its neck and neck, but don’t get wrapped up in this everday public polling its nonsense.

I can’t fault your logic Hamilton Jay. All that info is plain to see in Rasmussen’s data. What I don’t get is why Ras is showing this to be so close? What kind of D+ skew is he using? Hasn’t he seen the intensity over the last 4 years, Tea Party, Chick Fil A, Obamacare? Is he covering his ass? Any reassuring words would be greatly appreciated. GOD BLESS