Poll Shows GOP With Enthusiasm Advantage

RealClearPolitics ^ | October 1, 2012 | Kyle Adams

[TomEwall]

Republicans hold a substantial enthusiasm edge over Democrats as President Obama and Mitt Romney prepare to face off in their first head-to-head debate on Wednesday in Denver.

According to a new USA Today/Gallup poll, 64 percent of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, while 48 percent of Democrats say the same....

[TomEwall]

Goes on to say that Romney has problems with various groups, but begs the question, what difference does it make, if these groups aren't going to vote for him?

The fact that there is an enthusiasm gap plus the fact that Obama is not winning among Independents seems to bode well for Romney. To win, Obama either has to get more Dems out to vote than the GOP does, or get more of the Independent vote, but polls don't seem to show him doing either.

[libdestroyer]

I don’t think we should trust ANY poll right now... regardless of whether it’s favorable to the GOP

[KarlInOhio]

But the polling models show that 99% of the country is Democratic so the Republican enthusiasm doesn't matter.

[Venturer]

If you believe the Republicans have an enthusiasm advantage now, just think what it would be if we had a real candidate.

[Gaffer]

Regardless, I will drill the first SOB that tries to keep me from voting against Obama on election day...and I do mean “drill”.....

[sickoflibs]

That is certainly true. Makes polling likely voters near impossible.

[MNJohnnie]

Yeah there is something seriously wrong with the polls

Read the internals. People are saying they agree with Romney on the big issues but are voting for Obama? Something is seriously wrong here.

Either the voters are saying “Hey we know Obama is a screw up but we like the guy so were are voting for him anyway” or they are simply not telling the truth to the pollsters or they are saying “better the devil we know they the devil we don’t know”.

[Buckeye McFrog]

Hence Samuel L. Jackson screaming at them to “Wake The F*** Up!”

[TomEwall]

“better the devil we know they the devil we don’t know”.

I know some people thinking this way.

Also know an Obama campaigner who said there is a lot of bitterness among Independents, making her job unpleasant.

[Lib-Lickers 2]

people don’t have to be enthusiastic to vote to still do it.. there are millions of people who don’t think Obama’s all that good but will still stand in line to vote for him

[plushaye]

I’ve posted this before but it’s telling:

In Gallup polling:
In October 2004, Dem and Rep enthusiasm were equal, and Republicans won
In October 2008, Dem=71%, Rep=51% enthusiastic, and Democrats won
In September end 2012, Dems=48%, Reps = 64% enthusiastic, and who will win??

Enthusiasm about voting usually means very likely voters and higher turnout

[A_Former_Democrat]

Thus, the propaganda strategy to make it look like “it’s all over, Obama wins” Dampen the enthusiasm with “why bother”

[plushaye]

The funny thing is that the media reports will and possibly are dampening Dem voting intensity. From anecdotes, in Dem-dominated cities and states, the attitude seems to be “meh”. People have written from NYC and Oregon saying it’s like no election is happening. On the other hand, the Republican/Tea Party voters are shouting “ABO” and are ready to crawl over broken glass to vote. I agree that the MSM is trying to dampen THIS enthusiasm but shut them off and vote for your country is my suggestion.

[The Klingon]

Most Americans are not Political junkies like us and only this week starting to pay attention because of the debates. The polls will begin to align our way as the election gets closer. This was, is and will be about Obama. I can’t believe a Majority want another 4 years of this. So the undecideds will break heavily for RR.

[Izzy Dunne]

Either the voters are saying “Hey we know Obama is a screw up but we like the guy so were are voting for him anyway” or they are simply not telling the truth to the pollsters or they are saying “better the devil we know they the devil we don’t know”.

You didn't mention the possibility that the polls are sampling more Dems than Reps (D+11 in some cases) which is skewing the results.

If you sample the prison population, you're likely to find that leniency is favored.

[Cicero]

Regretably, the enthusiasm is almost entirely a burning desire to get Obama out of the White House. I don’t think anyone is enthusiastic about Romney as such, except maybe his Mormon followers.

Regretably, there doesn’t seem to be any rational alternative to the GOP. The candidates of the Constitution Party and other splinter groups are nothing to get enthusiastic about, either, even if any of them had a chance of coming even close to winning.

As with several of the last elections, about all you can say is that the GOP isn’t racing down into the gutter and screwing up quite as fast as the Jackass Party. I don’t know if I’d call that enthusiasm.

I really, really wish there was something to be enthusiastic about, since there’s no doubt that Obama is a deliberate destroyer of our country and all its true values.

I understand those who say that we MUST vote for Romney or we’ll get Obama again. Unfortunately, both of them are baby killing, gay marriage advocates who want to turn us into a socialist state. And I cannot in good conscience vote for anyone whom I know for certain will kill babies and destroy marriage and march ahead with socialized medicine, all of which Romney has done in the past. Nor to continue to support our system of two rotten parties. Not even to beat Obama.

It is a very, very sad situation that we find ourselves in. I continue to support FR, in hopes that we can somehow find a path through this total mess.

[Milt3726]

I don’t get it, the GOP has more enthusiasm, we have 41 million Tea Party voters. We have Romney leading among independents. Mitt Romney holds a lead among white Catholics and evangelicals. Romney is leading among veterans. Yet I keep hearing he’s losing. I know the media is lying. I am not discouraged; me and my friends will vote for Romney, and I expect him to win and win big!

[stuartcr]

Someone actually held an enthusiasm poll?

[tumblindice]

I just had a call from a pollster. The same number called this morning and when I stated my name, they hung up so this time I let her start talking.
Here’s the blow-by-blow:
“If the election were held today, who would you vote for Joe Donnelly or Richard Mourdock?”
Oh Mourdock, without a doubt. Before we go on, is this poll being paid for by Donnelly? I had a pollster call last month and when I indicated I was planning to vote for Romney, he hung up on me.
“Oh, it’s by an independent, impartial company.”
OK.
“Next, do you think President Obama has made the economy a. Better, b. No effect, or c. Worse.”
Is there a d. for `complete disaster’?
“No sir.”
OK, I choose c.
“Thank you.”
You’re welcome.

Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
Ralph Waldo Emerson

[TomEwall]

There’s an article on RCP from “The Huffington Post” where some guy is saying the election is over because the last 5 Ohio polls are showing Obama ahead.

Obama only won Ohio by 4.5% or so in 2008, even though he won the election by over 7%. That’s a 2.5% edge for the GOP. Assuming the race is even, do they really think Obama is going to win big in Ohio? There seems to be a complete lack of ability to think logically.

If I’m not mistaken, the Ohio polls also show Obama not doing well enough among Independents (he needs around 49%, but only has around 45% I think). So the only way he wins Ohio, if Independents are not for him, is to have more Dems vote the Reps, but the GOP has a 2.5% edge in a neutral race. That’s not so easy to make up.