Posted on 09/30/2012 7:31:31 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. If you do not already have a Rasmussen Reader account, subscribe now.
Platinum Members have access to detailed demographic information.
In the 11 swing states, President Obama earns 48% support to Mitt Romney’s 44%. Five percent (5%) prefer another candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.
This is the widest gap in the race since September 6 when Romney held a four-point lead as his bounce from the Republican National Convention peaked. Obama has now been ahead for nine of the last 11 days. For two days late last week, the candidates were tied.
In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.
When “leaners” are factored in, the president leads Romney 50% to 45%. Leaners are those who are initially uncommitted to the two leading candidates but lean towards one of them when asked a follow-up question.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
could Ras just be keeping it suspenseful just to help his business? if Ras will inadvertently lie to America, can we trust him anytime?
could Ras just be keeping it suspenseful just to help his business? if Ras will inadvertently lie to America, can we trust him anytime?
I think your point is spot on accurate and IMHO this current election climate has the same feel as the 80 election. I remember we (family, friends, etc) kept hearing how Carter was leading while thinking how in Hell can this country re-elect him after such a dismal first term??? My gut feeling is that those polls were way off just as these ones today are.
If Mitt wins the majority of Indies, Women, and holds his base....he wins.
12 million jobs is a statistic, and people don't care about statistics. That's why they don't care about a 16 trillion dollar debt--who can relate to even one trillion, much less 16 of them, especially when their daily lives are not visibly affected by it anyway?
Where do you live ?
In Fl it’s about 50 50 ads ratio and they are all muted
Where do you live ?
In Fl it’s about 50 50 ads ratio and they are all muted
“If these numbers are to be believed Obama is poised to win by at least as big of margins as he got in 2008. Un-effin-believable!”
I sorry, but I DON’T believe these numbers. Think about it. It’s simply not possible for Hussein to win with as big a vote as 2008. There’s massive buyer’s remorse out there, massive unemployment, massive gas price increases, massive tax increases on the horizon, massive healthcare cost increases (and even bigger ones looming), massive healthcare disruptions, massive attacks on businesses, massive youth unemployment, massive antisemitism, refusal to build the XL pipeline, ad. nauseum.
And we’re supposed to believe that Hussein will win with the same margin? I’m not buying it. Personally, I think Hussein is going to be blown out of the water. People are either ducking the polls (like me), or they are lying (like some friends of mine do).
I completely agree with the theory but I have ONE Eeyore aside. This is a VERY different country than the one we knew and loved in 1980. The electorate is not the same.
Still- people I know who were Obama voters are now either plugging nose for Romney or sitting it out.
Bingo.
Romeny’s commercials are vague, generic and easily forgotten.
Hell, all Romney has to do keep hammering the high gas prices on Obama blocking the Keystone Pipeline so his Billionaire buddy Warren Buffet can make even more $$ and that’s 5 points in the polls right there.
But no, never happen.
Republicans should fire everyone of their campaign managers
I don’t listen to any MSM channels, my analysis are based on watching/working for different campaigns (Hillary, Palin, Whitman).
I travel lot, everywhere they say BO will win because Romney is lousy campaigner. Like Whitman, Romney is depending too much on PAID CAMPAIGNERS not on BASE to rise up and help him.
Unpaid are more motivated. BO base, whether in media or in public are more motivated.
You believe that Mitt trails with men and is leading women???
That wasn’t the point. I believe that Ras has changed the weighing again. Unskewed polls, whether you believe that site is not relevant, but has Romney picking up 3 today from Yesterday. This could be an indication that Ras has changed his weighing to a +5, or +6 Dem id.
Gallup says Party Id is not relevant - Ras believe it is, they both cannot be right.
I think hammering about the Obamacare death panels would be
Smart idea too .
Being nice to Chicago thugs is the only language they know
Did you see their data weighting uses a 2008 model?:
‘As with nearly all survey data, we weight our sample to best match the population of interest (including factors such as sex, age category, race-ethnicity, education, household size, and family income). Based on the premise that the best predictor of future voting behavior is past voting behavior, we also reweight each daily sample separately such that its voting behavior in 2008 matches known population voting behavior in 2008.’
Unfortunately we may be heading toward—if Obama doesn’t screw it up we’re in trouble territory.
What Romney could/should have done is take off the kid gloves with Obama. If anything, he seems to be getting softer on him all the time.
Unless the swing states have a much larger Dem population than other states (not very likely is it? Since they are swing states they should be close to the average, no? ) this poll is dubious. Put in the figures that Ras usually plays with 33 GOP, 36 DEM, 31 IND and what do you get?
Romney: 47%
Obama: 47.5%
Yes.
Rassmussen has stated he expects a D+2 to D+4 turnout, so I expect he's going to use D+3 unless something changes
Not this time!
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